【摘要】：我國(guó)煤炭資源的85%來(lái)自井工開(kāi)采。井工開(kāi)采必然導(dǎo)致地表下沉、裂縫的產(chǎn)生,從而影響礦區(qū)生產(chǎn)、人民生活。加之,我國(guó)的煤礦區(qū)大多分布在生態(tài)脆弱的晉、陜、蒙區(qū),因此,對(duì)井工開(kāi)采導(dǎo)致的地面塌陷進(jìn)行深入探討迫在眉睫,特別是在黃土丘陵區(qū)塌陷地的塌陷形態(tài)特征研究的基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)塌陷地塌陷程度進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)可為生態(tài)脆弱煤礦區(qū)的塌陷地的預(yù)測(cè)、治理及恢復(fù)提供依據(jù)。目前塌陷預(yù)測(cè)使用較多的方法為概率積分法,該方法在平原區(qū)較為適用,在黃土緩坡丘陵區(qū)的適用性有待研究。因此,本文以平朔井工三礦903工作面為研究對(duì)象,運(yùn)用概率積分法作為平朔井工三礦903工作面塌陷預(yù)測(cè)的方法并對(duì)工作面上100×100m塌陷區(qū)樣地進(jìn)行了實(shí)地調(diào)查,通過(guò)對(duì)塌陷地各屬性值(塌陷面積、塌陷深度、裂縫數(shù)等)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析和空間自相關(guān)分析,研究了平朔礦區(qū)塌陷地形態(tài)特征;最后將概率積分法的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果與實(shí)測(cè)結(jié)果對(duì)比分析,討論該方法在黃土緩坡丘陵區(qū)塌陷預(yù)測(cè)的適用性。本文的主要研究結(jié)論有:(1)運(yùn)用概率積分法,并借助中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)研制的開(kāi)采沉陷軟件(MSAS),對(duì)井工三礦903工作面進(jìn)行塌陷預(yù)測(cè)。通過(guò)下沉等值線圖和下沉云圖,得到下沉最大區(qū)位于903工作面中心,為9269mm。對(duì)樣地范圍內(nèi)塌陷預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果表明,塌陷下沉范圍為1-9m,而對(duì)樣地塌陷地DEM進(jìn)行分析結(jié)果表明,樣地自東向西100米范圍內(nèi)塌陷程度逐漸加重,塌陷下沉范圍為1-3.5m。(2)平朔礦區(qū)井工開(kāi)采對(duì)地表的破壞主要表現(xiàn)為地表的下沉和裂縫。經(jīng)預(yù)測(cè)計(jì)算和遙感解譯,井工三礦903工作面占地塌陷面積有220.02 hm2,其中耕地占200.18hm2,林地占19.82hm2。對(duì)塌陷區(qū)樣地(100×100 m)實(shí)地測(cè)量結(jié)果表明,樣地范圍內(nèi)塌陷面積和裂縫數(shù)空間分布均勻,但塌陷深度空間分布并不一致,對(duì)塌陷地空間研究表明:樣地的中部和南部塌陷較嚴(yán)重,而西北部塌陷不嚴(yán)重,這可能和井工開(kāi)采的工藝及地質(zhì)條件的差異性有關(guān)。(3)將塌陷區(qū)預(yù)測(cè)下沉值與實(shí)測(cè)值進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,計(jì)算得實(shí)際值的均方根誤差是標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差的2.18倍,根據(jù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的均方根誤差定義,預(yù)測(cè)塌陷下沉值與實(shí)測(cè)塌陷下沉值之間的誤差較大,這可能與丘陵區(qū)地質(zhì)特征、樣地范圍等因素有關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:85% of China's coal resources come from well mining. Well mining will inevitably lead to surface subsidence and cracks, thus affecting mining production and people's lives. In addition, most of the coal mining areas in China are located in the ecologically fragile areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia. Especially on the basis of the study on the collapse morphological characteristics of the subsided land in the loess hilly area, the accurate prediction of the collapse degree of the subsided land can provide the basis for the prediction, treatment and restoration of the subsided land in the ecologically fragile coal mine area. At present, the probability integration method is widely used in the prediction of collapse, which is more suitable in the plain area, and the applicability of the method in the loess gentle slope hilly area needs to be studied. Therefore, this paper takes 903 face of Pingshuo coal mine as the research object, uses probability integration method as the method to predict the collapse of 903 face in Pingshuo coal mine, and makes a field investigation on the sample land of 100 脳 100m collapse area on the face. Based on the statistical analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis of the collapsing land values (subsidence area, collapse depth, crack number, etc.), the morphological characteristics of subsidence land in Pingshuo mining area are studied. Finally, the prediction results of the probabilistic integration method are compared with the measured results, and the applicability of the method to the prediction of collapse in the loess hilly region is discussed. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the collapse prediction of 903 face in Jinggong No.3 Mine is carried out by using probabilistic integration method and with the help of mining subsidence software (MSAS), developed by China University of Mining and Technology. The maximum subsidence area is located at the center of 903 face, which is 9269mm. The prediction results of subsidence in the sample plots show that the subsidence range is 1-9 m, and the DEM analysis results show that the subsidence degree of the sample plots is gradually increasing within 100m from east to west. The subsidence range is from 1 to 3.5 m. (2) the surface damage caused by mining in Pingshuo mining area is mainly manifested by surface subsidence and fracture. Through prediction calculation and remote sensing interpretation, the subsidence area of 903 face in Jinggong No. 3 Coal Mine is 220.02 mm ~ 2, of which the cultivated land is 200.18hm2and the woodland is 19.82hm2. The field survey results of the sample land (100 脳 100m) in the subsidence area show that the collapse area and the number of cracks are uniformly distributed in the sample area, but the spatial distribution of the collapse depth is not consistent. The research on the collapsing site space shows that the collapse in the central and southern part of the sample plot is more serious. However, the northwestern collapse is not serious, which may be related to the difference of mining technology and geological conditions. (3) by comparing the predicted subsidence value with the measured value, the root mean square error of the actual value calculated is 2.18 times of the standard deviation. According to the standard definition of root mean square error, the error between the predicted subsidence value and the measured subsidence value is large, which may be related to the geological characteristics of the hilly area and the range of sample plots.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TD327

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