本文選題：錫礦 + 資源保障度��； 參考：《中國礦業(yè)》2017年10期

【摘要】：錫是中國優(yōu)勢(shì)礦產(chǎn)之一,在1991年被列入保護(hù)性開采特定礦種。由于近年來開采過度、資源回收利用率低、找礦難度大等因素,導(dǎo)致中國錫礦資源未來可持續(xù)開采和消費(fèi)保障度快速下降,按現(xiàn)行的礦種規(guī)劃與管理無法適應(yīng)錫礦長期開采、回收與進(jìn)出口的戰(zhàn)略布局。本文根據(jù)2004~2014年錫礦歷史數(shù)據(jù),以縮小供需差為目標(biāo),通過分析產(chǎn)量、需求量、進(jìn)口量、儲(chǔ)量與資源保障度的關(guān)系提出5種政策方案,運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型預(yù)測(cè)5種方案下錫礦2015~2025年的資源保障度變化情況。結(jié)果顯示到2025年產(chǎn)量維持在9.2萬t左右、回收利用率達(dá)到30%可以使錫礦開采和消費(fèi)保障度分別提高52.6%和56.3%,加強(qiáng)資源后備儲(chǔ)量能大幅提升錫礦未來保障度,控制生產(chǎn)、提高回收利用率將有利于優(yōu)化中國錫礦供給結(jié)構(gòu),降低供應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。根據(jù)模型結(jié)果提出要合理制定生產(chǎn)指令性計(jì)劃嚴(yán)控產(chǎn)量,加強(qiáng)回收利用制度建立,加大國內(nèi)勘查力度、實(shí)施緬甸佤邦一帶投資并購等政策建議。
[Abstract]:Tin, one of the dominant minerals in China, was included in protective mining in 1991. Due to some factors such as excessive exploitation in recent years, low utilization rate of resources recovery and difficulty in prospecting, the degree of sustainable exploitation and consumption guarantee of tin ore resources in China in the future has declined rapidly. According to the current mineral type planning and management, it is unable to adapt to the long-term exploitation of tin ore. The strategic layout of recycling and import and export. Based on the historical data of tin ore from 2004 to 2014, and aiming at reducing the difference between supply and demand, this paper puts forward five kinds of policy schemes by analyzing the relationship between output, demand, import quantity, reserves and resource guarantee. The system dynamics model is used to predict the change of resource guarantee degree of tin ore from 2015 to 2025 under five schemes. The results show that the annual output is maintained at 92000 tons by 2025, and the recovery utilization ratio of 30% can increase the degree of tin mining and consumption security by 52.6% and 56.3% respectively. Strengthening the reserve reserves of resources can greatly enhance the future security degree of tin ore and control production. Increasing recycling efficiency will help to optimize the supply structure of Chinese tin ore and reduce the supply risk. According to the results of the model, some policy suggestions are put forward, such as making production directive plan, strictly controlling production, strengthening the establishment of recycling system, strengthening domestic exploration, and carrying out investment and merger and acquisition in the WA area of Myanmar.
【作者單位】： 中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)人文經(jīng)管學(xué)院;中國地質(zhì)調(diào)查局發(fā)展研究中心;
【基金】：中國地質(zhì)調(diào)查局地質(zhì)調(diào)查項(xiàng)目“地質(zhì)調(diào)查發(fā)展路線圖與管理政策研究”資助(編號(hào):DD20160087)
【分類號(hào)】：F426.1

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