本文選題：煤炭產(chǎn)能 + 情景預(yù)測��； 參考：《系統(tǒng)工程理論與實(shí)踐》2017年05期

【摘要】：基于中國煤炭產(chǎn)能及其影響因素之間的反饋機(jī)制,開展了中國煤炭產(chǎn)能系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)預(yù)測與調(diào)控潛力的研究.研究認(rèn)為:1)十三.五期間中國煤炭產(chǎn)能仍將持續(xù)增長,政策情景下中國煤炭產(chǎn)能2020年將達(dá)到46.35億噸,較之于基準(zhǔn)情景減少5.09億噸;2)政策情景下中國煤炭供過于求的壓力顯著大于基準(zhǔn)情景,2020年供需缺口達(dá)到6.46億噸,其根源在于政策情景下煤炭需求得到了有效控制,而基準(zhǔn)情景下煤炭供需缺口的相對減小則是煤炭供需過度增長的結(jié)果;3)調(diào)控情景下我國煤炭產(chǎn)能在2020年達(dá)到44.20億噸,較之基準(zhǔn)情景降低7.23億噸,落后產(chǎn)能淘汰、煤炭進(jìn)口限額、煤炭價格管制以及煤炭投資約束是煤炭產(chǎn)能調(diào)控的關(guān)鍵.
[Abstract]:Based on the feedback mechanism between China's coal production capacity and its influencing factors, the prediction and control potential of coal productivity system dynamics in China are studied. The study holds that one is thirteen. China's coal production capacity will continue to grow during the five-year period. Under the policy scenario, China's coal production capacity will reach 4.635 billion tons by 2020. Under the policy scenario, the pressure of coal oversupply in China is significantly greater than that in the benchmark scenario, and the gap between supply and demand reaches 646 million tons in 2020, the root of which lies in the effective control of coal demand under the policy scenario. However, the relative reduction of coal supply and demand gap under the benchmark scenario is the result of excessive growth of coal supply and demand. Under the control scenario, China's coal production capacity will reach 4.42 billion tons by 2020, which is 723 million tons lower than the benchmark scenario, and backward production capacity will be eliminated and coal import quotas will be limited. Coal price control and coal investment constraints are the key to coal capacity control.
【作者單位】： 中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)管理學(xué)院;中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)國際能源政策研究中心;中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)環(huán)境科學(xué)與工程博士后流動站;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金(71273259,71403267) 教育部人文社會科學(xué)研究項目(14YJCZH144) 中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)項目(2014WA02) 江蘇高校國際能源政策研究中心建設(shè)資助項目~~
【分類號】：F426.21

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