本文選題：煤與瓦斯突出 + 預(yù)測敏感指標(biāo)��； 參考：《中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著煤礦開采深度的不斷增加,煤與瓦斯突出等煤巖動力災(zāi)害的威脅日趨加劇,這嚴(yán)重制約了煤礦的安全生產(chǎn)。因此,提高煤與瓦斯突出危險預(yù)警的準(zhǔn)確性和效率已逐漸成為煤礦安全生產(chǎn)亟待解決的重大技術(shù)問題之一。由于不同煤層賦存特性的影響,常用突出預(yù)測指標(biāo)在不同礦區(qū)有時突出敏感性不強,極大地影響了突出預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確性�；诖�,本文對試驗礦井突出預(yù)測指標(biāo)進行了分析。研究了不同指標(biāo)的敏感性及其臨界值,進行了突出指標(biāo)的超前預(yù)測和可視化分析。論文主要成果如下:本文針對突出礦井煤與瓦斯突出預(yù)測敏感指標(biāo)及臨界值的確定問題,通過模糊數(shù)學(xué)與概率統(tǒng)計相結(jié)合,建立了各個預(yù)測指標(biāo)的敏感度函數(shù),計算了不同預(yù)測指標(biāo)的敏感性,得到了1maxK作為武甲煤礦突出預(yù)測敏感性指標(biāo);基于突出指標(biāo)實測數(shù)據(jù)利用“三率法”分析確定了敏感預(yù)測指標(biāo)的臨界值。建立了煤與瓦斯突出的優(yōu)化灰色預(yù)測模型,經(jīng)驗證優(yōu)化后的灰色預(yù)測模型在煤與瓦斯突出超前預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確率得到了提升;建立了模糊物元煤與瓦斯突出預(yù)警模型,具有突出危險“無、輕、中、重”4級預(yù)警等級;利用3D MAX軟件建立了煤與瓦斯突出可視化三維模型,實現(xiàn)了掘進工作面煤與瓦斯突出危險的可視化預(yù)測,并進行了驗證應(yīng)用。本研究對綜合判斷掘進工作面安全狀況及前方的潛在危險性,減少瓦斯災(zāi)害事故的發(fā)生,保障礦井安全生產(chǎn)具有重要的實際意義。
[Abstract]:With the increasing depth of coal mining, the threat of coal and gas outburst and other coal-rock dynamic disasters is becoming more and more serious, which seriously restricts the safety of coal production. Therefore, improving the accuracy and efficiency of coal and gas outburst warning has gradually become one of the important technical problems to be solved urgently. Due to the influence of the occurrence characteristics of different coal seams, the commonly used outburst prediction indexes are not sensitive to outburst in different mining areas, which greatly affects the accuracy of outburst prediction. Based on this, this paper analyzes the outburst prediction index of experimental mine. The sensitivity and critical value of different indexes are studied, and the advanced prediction and visual analysis of prominent indicators are carried out. The main achievements are as follows: aiming at the problem of determining sensitive index and critical value of outburst prediction of coal and gas outburst, the sensitivity function of each prediction index is established by combining fuzzy mathematics with probability statistics. The sensitivity of different prediction indexes is calculated and the critical value of sensitive prediction index is determined by "three rate method" analysis based on the measured data of the outburst of Wujia Coal Mine, which is regarded as the sensitivity index for outburst prediction by 1maxK. The optimized grey prediction model of coal and gas outburst is established, and the accuracy of the optimized grey prediction model in coal and gas outburst prediction is improved, and the fuzzy-matter coal and gas outburst warning model is established. It has four warning grades of "no, light, medium and heavy", and establishes the visual 3D model of coal and gas outburst by using 3D MAX software, realizes the visual prediction of coal and gas outburst danger in tunneling face, and verifies the application. This study is of great practical significance in synthetically judging the safety situation and potential danger in front of heading face, reducing the occurrence of gas disaster accident and ensuring mine safety production.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TD713

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