本文選題：煤炭市場 + 遺傳算法��； 參考：《江蘇大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：因為我國能源結構的特點是“富煤、貧油、少氣”,能源的生產和消費一直以煤炭為主。作為我國的主體能源,煤炭的供需問題與我國經濟的發(fā)展和社會的進步密切相關。長期以來,煤炭的生產一直保持著平穩(wěn)的發(fā)展速度,但是煤炭市場卻不是一直保持著供需平衡。改革開放之前,由于煤炭市場的供不應求,使得我國經濟發(fā)展受到嚴重制約。改革開放初期,我國經濟結構逐步調整,煤炭產量基本滿足國民經濟快速發(fā)展的需要,但逐漸地,煤炭市場呈現(xiàn)出供大于求的局面,而局部地區(qū)又會出現(xiàn)供應緊張。煤炭市場經常處于供需不平衡的狀態(tài)。所以分析我國煤炭市場供需平衡的因素,并找出使煤炭市場處于穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)的相關對策就顯得尤其重要。本文研究目的就在于此。本文首先闡述了煤炭市場的相關理論,以及我國煤炭市場的供需現(xiàn)狀,分析影響煤炭供需平衡的相關因素,選取合適的變量因素,建立煤炭價格-供給-經濟增長系統(tǒng)。通過數(shù)值仿真,研究系統(tǒng)中各因素間的動態(tài)演化關系。結合歷史統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),借助遺傳算法,確定系統(tǒng)中相關參數(shù)的取值,使之具有現(xiàn)實意義,提出使煤炭市場處于穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)的調控政策。接著分別從單一調控策略和兩種策略組合的角度,分析調控政策對煤炭市場穩(wěn)定性的影響。然后以2015年我國煤炭消耗強度為基準,分析單一調控策略和組合策略的實施降低煤炭消耗強度的程度。綜合調控政策,分析得出本文結論:要想使我國煤炭市場保持供需平衡,并有效降低煤炭消耗強度,就要在開發(fā)新能源,使用清潔能源,產業(yè)結構調整,加強市場自身調控能力,政府適時行政干預的基礎上,根據(jù)我國煤炭市場的動態(tài),及時調整調控策略,實時監(jiān)控,才能達到預期效果。
[Abstract]:Because China's energy structure is characterized by "rich in coal, lean oil, less gas", energy production and consumption has been mainly coal. As the main energy of our country, the supply and demand of coal is closely related to the economic development and social progress of our country. For a long time, coal production has maintained a steady development rate, but the coal market has not always maintained a balance of supply and demand. Before the reform and opening up, because the coal market supply exceeds the supply, our country economy development is seriously restricted. At the beginning of reform and opening up, China's economic structure was gradually adjusted, and the coal output basically met the needs of the rapid development of the national economy. However, gradually, the coal market showed a situation of oversupply, and the supply in some areas would be tight. The coal market is often in a state of imbalance between supply and demand. So it is very important to analyze the factors of supply and demand balance of coal market in our country and find the relevant countermeasures to make the coal market stable. This is the purpose of this study. In this paper, the relevant theories of coal market and the present situation of supply and demand of coal market in our country are expounded, and the relevant factors affecting the balance of coal supply and demand are analyzed, the appropriate variable factors are selected, and the system of coal price-supply-economy growth is established. Through numerical simulation, the dynamic evolution relationship between various factors in the system is studied. Based on the historical statistical data and the genetic algorithm, the relevant parameters in the system are determined, which is of practical significance, and the regulation and control policy is put forward to make the coal market in a stable state. Then, from the angle of single control strategy and combination of two strategies, the influence of regulation policy on coal market stability is analyzed. Then, based on the coal consumption intensity of China in 2015, the paper analyzes the degree of reducing coal consumption intensity by the implementation of single control strategy and combination strategy. In order to keep the balance between supply and demand in China's coal market and effectively reduce the intensity of coal consumption, it is necessary to develop new energy, use clean energy and adjust the industrial structure. On the basis of strengthening the control ability of the market itself and the government's timely administrative intervention, according to the dynamic of the coal market in our country, adjusting the control strategy in time and monitoring in real time can achieve the expected effect.
【學位授予單位】：江蘇大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.21

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