本文選題：電煤運(yùn)輸　切入點(diǎn)：供需影響　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)(北京)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：電煤轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)指的是電煤從坑口生產(chǎn)后運(yùn)輸?shù)诫娒盒枨蟮氐倪^(guò)程中需要經(jīng)過(guò)不同運(yùn)輸方式之間的轉(zhuǎn)換。由于中國(guó)電煤產(chǎn)地與需求地嚴(yán)重錯(cuò)位,電煤資源獲得到利用通常需要長(zhǎng)距離運(yùn)輸,從而導(dǎo)致電煤轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)不可避免。電煤良好轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)將對(duì)中國(guó)社會(huì)產(chǎn)生積極作用。一方面從運(yùn)輸角度看,電煤良好轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)能減小中國(guó)運(yùn)輸壓力,緩解運(yùn)輸瓶頸;另一方面從社會(huì)福利角度看,電煤良好轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)能減少運(yùn)輸成本,從而增加社會(huì)總效益。然而,目前學(xué)術(shù)界對(duì)中國(guó)電煤轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)研究大多是對(duì)電煤轉(zhuǎn)方運(yùn)輸方式比較、對(duì)電煤轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)政策研究,對(duì)電煤轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)缺乏定量指導(dǎo)。所以,電煤轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)現(xiàn)狀仍然復(fù)雜,社會(huì)總成本仍然居高不下。本文在前人電煤轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)研究的基礎(chǔ)上,從電煤供需實(shí)際出發(fā),以運(yùn)輸最小成本為目標(biāo),對(duì)中國(guó)電煤轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)建模進(jìn)行研究。最終通過(guò)運(yùn)用該模型,指導(dǎo)中國(guó)電煤轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)。首先,本文分析中國(guó)電煤供需影響。從宏觀環(huán)境出發(fā),對(duì)中國(guó)電煤轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)PEST分析。政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)及技術(shù)四個(gè)方面的變化,都將對(duì)中國(guó)電煤供需產(chǎn)生影響。電煤產(chǎn)地、需求地變遷,也將會(huì)影響中國(guó)電煤供需結(jié)構(gòu)。其次,本文對(duì)中國(guó)電煤運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行研究。中國(guó)電煤轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)涉及到公路、鐵路及水路之間相互轉(zhuǎn)換,因此,需要對(duì)各自運(yùn)輸方式及轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)特點(diǎn)進(jìn)行比較。通過(guò)比較電煤轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)方式,然后分系統(tǒng)分析中國(guó)電煤轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)現(xiàn)狀。再次,在研究中國(guó)電煤供需情況及轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)現(xiàn)狀基礎(chǔ)上,建立中國(guó)電煤轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)模型。再根據(jù)中國(guó)電煤轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)實(shí)際情況,進(jìn)行模型優(yōu)化,最終得出符合中國(guó)電煤轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)實(shí)際的模型。最后,運(yùn)用2015年中國(guó)發(fā)電數(shù)據(jù)以及電煤供給數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)該模型進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。模型計(jì)算結(jié)果表明,2015年中國(guó)電煤運(yùn)輸成本為390.72億元。在每萬(wàn)公里單位運(yùn)輸里程上,2015年中國(guó)電煤實(shí)際單位運(yùn)費(fèi)成本為45737.26元,而模型單位運(yùn)輸成本為42992.77元。因此,在單位運(yùn)輸里程上,該模型能較少電煤運(yùn)輸成本2744.49元,減少6%的單位成本。因此,本文模型能減少中國(guó)電煤運(yùn)輸成本。
[Abstract]:Power coal transportation refers to the transition between different transportation modes during the process of coal transportation from pit to power coal demand area. Because of the serious dislocation between the origin and demand of power coal in China, The utilization of thermal coal resources usually requires long distance transportation, which leads to the inevitable transportation of thermal coal. Good thermal coal transport will have a positive effect on Chinese society. On the one hand, from the perspective of transportation, good thermal coal transport can reduce the transport pressure in China. On the other hand, from the point of view of social welfare, a good transportation of thermal coal can reduce the transportation cost and thus increase the overall social benefit. However, at present, most of the researches in the academic circles on the transport of thermal coal in China are compared with the mode of transportation of the power coal to the other side. Therefore, the present situation of thermal coal transport is still complex, and the total social cost is still high. Based on the previous research on thermal coal transport, this paper starts from the actual supply and demand of power coal. Taking the minimum cost of transportation as the goal, this paper studies the modeling of coal transport in China. Finally, the model is used to guide the transport of electric coal in China. Firstly, this paper analyzes the influence of supply and demand on coal supply and demand in China. The PEST analysis of China's thermal coal transport. The changes in political, economic, social and technological aspects will have an impact on the supply and demand of China's power coal. The change of power coal production area and demand location will also affect the supply and demand structure of China's power coal supply and demand. Secondly, In this paper, the transport system of thermal coal in China is studied. The transportation of electric coal in China involves the interconversion of roads, railways and waterways, therefore, it is necessary to compare the transport modes and the characteristics of each other. Thirdly, on the basis of studying the supply and demand of China's coal supply and demand and the current situation of coal transport, the model of China's thermal coal transport is established, and then the model is optimized according to the actual situation of China's electric coal transportation. Finally, we get a model that accords with the actual power coal transport in China. Finally, we use the data of power generation and coal supply in China in 2015. The calculation results show that the transportation cost of thermal coal in China in 2015 is thirty-nine billion seventy-two million yuan, and the actual unit freight cost of thermal coal in China in 2015 is 45737.26 yuan per 10,000 kilometers per unit mileage. The unit transportation cost of the model is 42992.77 yuan. Therefore, in the unit transportation mileage, the model can reduce the unit cost of coal transportation by 2744.49 yuan, and reduce the unit cost by 6% yuan. Therefore, the model in this paper can reduce the transportation cost of thermal coal in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61;F426.21

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