本文關(guān)鍵詞：煤礦險兆事件管理體系構(gòu)建及有效性評價研究　出處：《西安科技大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 險兆事件管理體系 PDCA 有效性評價 層次分析法 BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)用研究

【摘要】：理論與實踐表明,良好的險兆事件管理能有效減少事故的發(fā)生。而煤炭行業(yè)尚缺少險兆事件概念推廣下的信息化、體系化管理。因此,本文探索性構(gòu)建一套煤礦險兆事件管理體系并探索其有效性,以期為實現(xiàn)煤礦險兆事件有效管理奠定基礎(chǔ)。本文在梳理險兆事件管理研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,從當(dāng)前煤礦企業(yè)險兆事件管理現(xiàn)狀出發(fā),提出構(gòu)建煤礦企業(yè)險兆事件管理體系的必要性。然后,通過分析PDCA模型用于險兆事件管理體系構(gòu)建的優(yōu)勢,以及參考《職業(yè)健康安全管理體系規(guī)范》OHSAS18001-2007和《環(huán)境管理體系要求》ISO14001-2004的管理體系要素,提出了一套基于PDCA循環(huán)的煤礦險兆事件管理體系的理論框架。在此框架的基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)行了煤礦險兆事件管理體系的模塊設(shè)計。模塊設(shè)計從險兆事件管理計劃與目標(biāo)設(shè)定(P)、險兆事件管理實施與運行(D)、險兆事件管理結(jié)果檢查(C)、險兆事件管理體系改進(jìn)(A)四個模塊著手,對其相關(guān)內(nèi)容和要點進(jìn)行闡述,細(xì)化了體系運行過程中的各個環(huán)節(jié)和具體內(nèi)容,從而構(gòu)建成一個具備可操作性、循環(huán)往復(fù)、螺旋式上升的煤礦險兆事件管理體系。同時,為了驗證體系的有效性,并且?guī)椭髽I(yè)進(jìn)行自我審查與評估,構(gòu)建了一套結(jié)合了層次分析法和BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的煤礦險兆事件管理體系有效性評價模型。首先,運用修正式德爾菲法構(gòu)建了一套由2個一級指標(biāo)、7個二級指標(biāo)、20個三級指標(biāo)組成的險兆事件管理評價指標(biāo)體系;然后,運用AHP層次分析法對各個指標(biāo)體系進(jìn)行權(quán)重賦值,并由15家煤礦單位給出其險兆事件管理體系評分;最后,設(shè)計了險兆事件管理體系有效性評價的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)構(gòu)模型,并以層次分析法得出的評分結(jié)果作為樣本,對BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)進(jìn)行了訓(xùn)練和測試。研究結(jié)果表明,該神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型很好地獲取并保存了專家進(jìn)行險兆事件管理評價的知識、判斷和經(jīng)驗,可以應(yīng)用到工程實際中幫助煤礦企業(yè)對險兆事件管理體系有效性進(jìn)行快速、科學(xué)的評價。
[Abstract]:Theory and practice show that good risk management can effectively reduce the occurrence of accidents, but the coal industry is still lack of information system management under the concept of risk and precursor events. This paper explores the construction of a coal mine risk management system and explore its effectiveness in order to establish a foundation for the effective management of coal mine risks. From the current situation of coal mine enterprise risk management, this paper puts forward the necessity of constructing a coal mine enterprise risk management system. Then, by analyzing the advantages of PDCA model used in the construction of risk and precursor event management system. And refer to "Occupational Health and Safety Management system Specification" OHSAS18001-2007 and "Environmental Management system requirements" ISO14001-2004 management system elements. This paper presents a theoretical framework of coal mine risk management system based on PDCA cycle. The module design of the management system of coal mine risk omega event is carried out. The module design includes the risk management plan and target setting, the implementation and operation of the management of the dangerous precursory event, and the inspection of the result of the management of the dangerous event. The four modules of risk management system improvement (A) begin to elaborate its relevant contents and key points, refine each link and concrete content in the running process of the system, and construct a system with maneuverability. In order to verify the effectiveness of the system and to help enterprises to conduct self-review and evaluation. This paper constructs a set of effective evaluation model of coal mine risk management system combining AHP and BP neural network. Firstly, a set of two primary indicators is constructed by using the modified formal Delphi method. The evaluation index system of risk and precursor event management is composed of 7 secondary indexes and 20 third-level indexes. Then, the weight of each index system is assigned by AHP Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the risk and precursor event management system score is given by 15 coal mine units. Finally, a BP neural network model is designed to evaluate the effectiveness of risk management system, and the results of AHP are used as samples. The BP neural network is trained and tested. The results show that the neural network model can obtain and preserve experts' knowledge, judgment and experience of risk management evaluation. It can be used in engineering practice to help coal mine enterprises to evaluate the effectiveness of risk management system quickly and scientifically.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：TD771

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