【摘要】：隨著工程機(jī)械行業(yè)的競爭越來越激烈,競爭的方式也由初期的價(jià)格競爭過度到產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量的競爭。同時(shí),工程機(jī)械銷售和服務(wù)網(wǎng)點(diǎn)完善健全,網(wǎng)絡(luò)和計(jì)算機(jī)應(yīng)用的普及使我公司積累了大量真實(shí)詳盡的數(shù)據(jù),使依據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)分析提高產(chǎn)品改進(jìn)的改進(jìn)速度和效果成為可能。 本文針對我公司主要裝載機(jī)產(chǎn)品,在大量的數(shù)據(jù)資源下,對公司裝載機(jī)的主機(jī)和主要零部件故障率趨勢進(jìn)行了探討和總結(jié),并根據(jù)趨勢對早期故障故障率發(fā)展趨勢的預(yù)計(jì)方法進(jìn)行比較。 首先,簡單介紹了公司主要機(jī)型裝載機(jī)產(chǎn)品的產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)和數(shù)據(jù)分析中的分類方法。對公司產(chǎn)品數(shù)據(jù)來源和包括服務(wù)站分布和數(shù)據(jù)分析的來源和流程等做了統(tǒng)計(jì)和介紹。并針對我公司主要機(jī)型,對主機(jī)和其中主要的30余種零部件統(tǒng)計(jì)保修期故障率并進(jìn)行故障率趨勢擬合。根據(jù)故障率趨勢獲得保修期內(nèi)故障率回歸趨勢并進(jìn)行擬合度判定,計(jì)算結(jié)果表明：根據(jù)大量的數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì),保修期內(nèi)零部件故障率統(tǒng)計(jì)結(jié)果均具有明顯規(guī)律性。根據(jù)二次多項(xiàng)式對故障率趨勢進(jìn)行擬合,絕大多數(shù)零部件故障率符合程度(值)在以上,說明保修期內(nèi)故障率完全符合…………曲線。 其次,根據(jù)歷史故整機(jī)障率趨勢發(fā)展,依據(jù)早期故障率對整機(jī)在半年保修期內(nèi)的最終故障率情況進(jìn)行預(yù)計(jì),并將預(yù)計(jì)結(jié)果與最終實(shí)際故障率進(jìn)行比較,對預(yù)計(jì)的準(zhǔn)確性和誤差原因進(jìn)行判斷和分析。 同時(shí),在零部件產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量異常趨勢改變時(shí),根據(jù)故障率增加趨勢的延續(xù)性,統(tǒng)計(jì)早期故障率發(fā)展趨勢并對后期故障率發(fā)展結(jié)果進(jìn)行模擬預(yù)計(jì),將預(yù)計(jì)結(jié)果和最后故障率反饋實(shí)際情況進(jìn)行對比,分析根據(jù)早期故障率進(jìn)行后期故障率的可行性。 最后,對可能影響故障率預(yù)計(jì)的其他因素,包括季節(jié)因素、用戶使用因素、工況因素和區(qū)域分布因素等,根據(jù)其在實(shí)際歷史統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)果的影響進(jìn)行總結(jié),指出在故障率預(yù)計(jì)中需要綜合考慮和處理的因素等。
[Abstract]:With the increasingly fierce competition in construction machinery industry, the way of competition is from the initial price competition to the product quality competition. At the same time, the construction machinery sales and service network is perfect and perfect, the popularization of network and computer application makes our company accumulate a large amount of real and detailed data, which makes it possible to improve the improvement speed and effect of product improvement based on data analysis. According to the main loader products of our company, this paper discusses and summarizes the failure rate trend of the main engine and main parts of the loader under a large amount of data resources. According to the trend, the prediction method of early failure rate is compared. Firstly, the product structure and classification method of main loader products are introduced. The product data sources, including the distribution of service stations and the sources and processes of data analysis are analyzed and analyzed. According to the main models of our company, the mainframe and its main 30 kinds of parts are analyzed and the trend of failure rate is fitted. According to the trend of failure rate, the regression trend of failure rate in warranty period is obtained and the fitting degree is judged. The calculation results show that according to a large number of data statistics, the statistical results of failure rate of parts and components during warranty period have obvious regularity. By fitting the trend of failure rate according to quadratic polynomial, the coincidence degree of most parts failure rate (value) is above, which shows that the failure rate completely accords with. Curve. Secondly, according to the trend of history, the final failure rate of the whole machine during the six months warranty period is predicted according to the early failure rate, and the predicted results are compared with the actual failure rate. Judge and analyze the accuracy and error cause of forecast. At the same time, when the abnormal trend of product quality changes, according to the continuity of the increasing trend of failure rate, the development trend of early failure rate is counted and the result of later failure rate development is simulated and predicted. The predicted results are compared with the actual situation of the final failure rate feedback, and the feasibility of the late failure rate based on the early failure rate is analyzed. Finally, we summarize other factors, including seasonal factors, user use factors, operating condition factors and regional distribution factors, which may affect the prediction of failure rate, according to the impact of the results of the actual historical statistics. The factors that need to be considered and dealt with in the prediction of failure rate are pointed out.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：TH243

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本文編號：2197842