【摘要】：在當(dāng)前氣候態(tài)下的黑潮延伸體海區(qū),混合層在一月到四月都較深。本文使用耦合模式比較計(jì)劃(CMIP5)的15個(gè)耦合模式的數(shù)據(jù),研究混合層深度對于輻射強(qiáng)迫增強(qiáng)的響應(yīng),并深入討論了形成這樣變化的原因,同時(shí)對由于混合層深度的變化而造成的春季水華發(fā)生時(shí)間的改變進(jìn)行了研究。得到如下具有一定創(chuàng)新性的成果：1、根據(jù)CMIP5模式數(shù)據(jù)的多模式平均的結(jié)果,在黑潮延伸體海區(qū),21世紀(jì)的混合層深度較當(dāng)前氣候態(tài)下有明顯的變淺,特別是三月和四月,變淺最深的區(qū)域可以達(dá)到30m。在三月份,混合層深度變淺的區(qū)域在當(dāng)前氣候態(tài)下混合層深度的鋒面區(qū),呈現(xiàn)西南-東北的條帶狀分布。在四月份,混合層深度變淺的更為明顯,并且分布在混合層深度的大值中心區(qū)域。2、根據(jù)CMIP5模式數(shù)據(jù)的多模式平均的結(jié)果,在輻射強(qiáng)迫增加后,三月和四月的黑潮延伸體海區(qū)的海水在南部吸熱增多(約15 w/m2),導(dǎo)致混合層變淺,但是無法解釋三月和四月混合層深度變淺分布上的差異。溫度平流的變化是混合層在輻射強(qiáng)迫增強(qiáng)后產(chǎn)生變淺現(xiàn)象的主要原因,在三月和四月溫度平流變化的分布都與混合層深度變化的分布相一致。通過試驗(yàn)表明,由于混合層鋒面區(qū)的背景流場是自西向東的東向流,輻射強(qiáng)迫增強(qiáng)后海水增暖的不一致性即西高東低,產(chǎn)生暖平流,是導(dǎo)致溫度平流這樣變化的原因。導(dǎo)致海表面溫度增暖不一致的原因可能是風(fēng)場的變化或者是流場的變化,還需要進(jìn)一步的研究。3、通過使用4個(gè)CMIP5的耦合模式數(shù)據(jù),驗(yàn)證了Sverdrup的春季水華理論在黑潮延伸體海區(qū)的合理性。通過比較當(dāng)前氣候態(tài)和輻射強(qiáng)迫增強(qiáng),發(fā)現(xiàn)春季水華發(fā)生時(shí)間有明顯的提前,大概在2-20天左右,并且變化時(shí)間隨著經(jīng)緯度的變化而發(fā)生改變。4、15個(gè)模式中有9個(gè)模式混合層變化的情況與多模式平均的結(jié)果相一致,利用模式間經(jīng)驗(yàn)正交分解的結(jié)果反演物理量,得到溫度平流的模式間差異導(dǎo)致了混合層深度的模式間差異,海表面溫度的模式間差異導(dǎo)致了溫度平流的模式間差異,加強(qiáng)了結(jié)論。以上分析證明了混合層深度在輻射強(qiáng)迫增強(qiáng)后會(huì)發(fā)生變淺,主要發(fā)生在三月和四月,并且存在季節(jié)差異,這樣的差異是由于海洋增暖不一致導(dǎo)致的溫度平流的差異,而混合層的變淺會(huì)導(dǎo)致春季水華的提前發(fā)生,影響生物學(xué)過程。
[Abstract]:In the current climatological Kuroshio extension area, the mixed layer is deeper from January to April. In this paper, the response of the depth of the mixed layer to the enhancement of radiation forcing is studied by using the data of 15 coupling modes of the Coupling Model comparison Plan (CMIP5), and the causes of this change are discussed in detail. At the same time, the change of Shui Hua occurrence time in spring caused by the change of mixed layer depth is studied. The following innovative results are obtained: 1. According to the multi-mode average results of CMIP5 model data, in the Kuroshio extension sea area, the depth of the mixed layer in the 21st century is obviously shallower than that in the current climatological state, especially in March and April. The deepest area can reach 30 m. In March, the region where the depth of the mixed layer becomes shallower presents a banded distribution from southwest to northeast in the front area of the depth of the mixed layer in the current climatological state. In April, the depth of the mixed layer becomes shallower and is distributed in the large central region of the depth of the mixed layer. 2. According to the results of the multi-mode average of the CMIP5 model data, after the radiation forcing increases, The sea water in the Kuroshio extension area in March and April increased in the southern endothermic area (about 15 w/m2), which led to the shallower mixed layer, but could not explain the difference in the distribution of the depth of the mixed layer between March and April. The change of temperature advection is the main reason for the shallower phenomenon of the mixed layer after the enhancement of radiation forcing. The distribution of temperature advection in March and April is consistent with the distribution of the depth of the mixed layer. The experimental results show that because the background flow field in the front area of the mixed layer is an eastward flow from west to east, the inconsistency of seawater warming after enhanced radiation forcing is high in the west and low in the east, resulting in warm advection, which is the cause of the change of temperature advection. The inconsistency of sea surface temperature may be due to the change of wind field or flow field, and further research is needed. 3, by using the coupling mode data of four CMIP5, The rationality of Sverdrup's spring Shui Hua theory in the Kuroshio extension area is verified. By comparing the current climatic state with the enhancement of radiation forcing, it is found that the occurrence time of Shui Hua in spring is obviously ahead of schedule, about 2 脳 20 days. And the change time changes with the change of longitude and latitude. 4, 9 of the 15 models are consistent with the results of multi-mode average, and the physical quantities are inversed by the results of empirical orthogonal decomposition between models. It is obtained that the difference of temperature advection mode leads to the difference of mixed layer depth, and the difference of sea surface temperature mode leads to the difference of temperature advection model, which strengthens the conclusion. The above analysis shows that the depth of the mixed layer will become shallower after the enhancement of radiation forcing, mainly in March and April, and there are seasonal differences, which are due to the difference of temperature advection caused by the inconsistency of ocean warming. The shallower mixed layer will lead to the occurrence of Shui Hua in spring and affect the biological process.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X52

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