【摘要】：為適應水環(huán)境風險管理中對壓力源的快速評判需求,構(gòu)建了流域產(chǎn)業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化壓力源評估方法,并開展其應用研究.從壓力源危險性及受體易損性著眼,提出了壓力源結(jié)構(gòu)風險和布局風險雙重控制思路;圍繞警示性評估的定位,針對單項及綜合風險分析,闡明了評估指標選取、風險指數(shù)計算和預警級別劃分等步驟,并以三峽庫區(qū)為案例進行了評估.結(jié)果顯示,三峽庫區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化壓力源綜合評估Ⅰ級(重警)區(qū)主要集中在重慶市主城區(qū)附近的8個區(qū)縣,其結(jié)構(gòu)風險指數(shù)值(0.375 6~0.624 6)和布局風險指數(shù)值(0.598 7~0.967 8)均較高;Ⅱ級(中警)區(qū)域包括江北區(qū)、北碚區(qū)、巴南區(qū)、大渡口區(qū)和巫山縣,呈現(xiàn)布局風險指數(shù)值(0.820 7~1.000 0)較高、結(jié)構(gòu)風險指數(shù)值(0.258 4~0.355 5)相對低的特征;Ⅲ級(輕警)區(qū)域包括渝東南和渝東北的5個區(qū)縣和渝中區(qū).其中,渝中區(qū)結(jié)構(gòu)風險指數(shù)值(0.135 6)小,但因其布局風險指數(shù)值(0.960 7)較大而使得綜合評估結(jié)果為輕警狀態(tài).
[Abstract]:In order to meet the requirement of rapid assessment of pressure sources in water environment risk management, a method for evaluating pressure sources of watershed industrialization and urbanization was constructed and its application was studied. Based on the risk of pressure source and the vulnerability of pressure source, the dual control thought of structural risk and layout risk of pressure source is put forward. Focusing on the orientation of warning assessment, the selection of evaluation index, the calculation of risk index and the classification of warning level are expounded for the single and comprehensive risk analysis. The evaluation is carried out with the three Gorges Reservoir area as a case study. The results show that the industrialization of the three Gorges Reservoir area and the comprehensive assessment of the pressure sources of urbanization I (heavy warning) area are mainly concentrated in 8 districts and counties near the main urban area of Chongqing. The structural risk index (0.375) and the layout risk index (0.598 7 ~ 0.967 8) were higher. The second grade (Central Police) area includes Jiangbei District, Beibei District, Bannan District, Dadukou District and Wushan County. The distribution risk index value (0.820 70.000 0) is higher, and the structural risk index value (0.258 40.355 5) is relatively low. Grade 鈪，

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