銀川市再生水回用SD模型的構(gòu)建
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-18 06:30
【摘要】：隨著寧夏銀川市社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,城市供水量越來越不能滿足于城市生活、工業(yè)、市政、生態(tài)、農(nóng)業(yè)及環(huán)境需水的要求。本文正是基于銀川市水資源短缺的現(xiàn)狀,結(jié)合國家自然基金項(xiàng)目《基于健康水系統(tǒng)的寧夏銀川市污水再生利用系統(tǒng)的構(gòu)建與優(yōu)化》,以國內(nèi)外現(xiàn)有的研究成果及實(shí)例為基礎(chǔ),通過問卷調(diào)查,分析了銀川市公眾對(duì)水資源及再生水利用的認(rèn)知以及接受程度并分析原因；在銀川市再生水利用系統(tǒng)組成分析的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了銀川市再生水回用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型,以預(yù)測(cè)再生水的發(fā)展與城市經(jīng)濟(jì)、生態(tài)、環(huán)境等的關(guān)系。為城市再生水的發(fā)展及利用提供參考依據(jù)。首先通過問卷調(diào)查的方式分析銀川市公眾對(duì)再生水的接受程度,探討公眾接受程度對(duì)再生水利用系統(tǒng)模型的影響,調(diào)查結(jié)果表明：銀川市再生水利用的公眾接受程度不高,一定程度上限制了再生水利用的發(fā)展,尤其是目前銀川市的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展對(duì)居民收入的影響及居民對(duì)再生水的了解程度不夠使得居民對(duì)再生水利用存在疑慮,尤其是水質(zhì)方面和價(jià)格方面,不愿意多花錢利用水質(zhì)相對(duì)不安全的再生水。其次,本文運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)論的方法研究再生水回用系統(tǒng)的構(gòu)成,主要有再生水供給子系統(tǒng)和再生水需求子系統(tǒng)；再通過分析各子系統(tǒng)中的相關(guān)因素,并確定因素之間的函數(shù)關(guān)系,為構(gòu)建再生水回用系統(tǒng)模型奠定基礎(chǔ)；運(yùn)用vensim ple軟件建立銀川市再生水回用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型,以模型中的重要變量之間的因果關(guān)系及主要反饋回路分析模型的結(jié)構(gòu)和特點(diǎn),并通過賦于模型初始值對(duì)模型做歷史性檢驗(yàn)確定模型運(yùn)行良好；最后根據(jù)銀川市的總體規(guī)劃提出方案,以2020年為水平年,通過改變決策變量污水回用年增長(zhǎng)率為10%和二級(jí)處理年增長(zhǎng)率3.6%進(jìn)行模擬預(yù)測(cè),方案預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果為：到2020年銀川市GDP為1500.85億元,工業(yè)產(chǎn)值為4591.88億元,再生水回用量為9334.92萬m3。利用再生水后,銀川市的缺水狀況將得到有效緩解,同時(shí)節(jié)約了地下水及黃河水資源,促進(jìn)了銀川市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,進(jìn)一步緩減了生態(tài)環(huán)境的質(zhì)量等問題。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy in Yinchuan City of Ningxia, the water supply of the city is more and more unable to meet the requirements of urban life, industry, municipal, ecology, agriculture and environment. This paper is based on the current situation of water resources shortage in Yinchuan City, combined with the National Natural Fund Project "Construction and Optimization of Wastewater Recycling and Utilization system in Yinchuan City, Ningxia based on healthy Water system", which is based on the existing research results and examples at home and abroad. Based on the questionnaire survey, this paper analyzes the public's cognition and acceptance of water resources and reclaimed water utilization in Yinchuan City, and analyzes the reasons for the acceptance, and analyzes the composition of the reclaimed water utilization system in Yinchuan City. In order to predict the relationship between the development of reclaimed water and urban economy, ecology and environment, the dynamic model of reclaimed water reuse system in Yinchuan City was constructed. It provides reference for the development and utilization of urban reclaimed water. Firstly, the paper analyzes the public acceptance degree of recycled water in Yinchuan city by questionnaire, and discusses the influence of public acceptance degree on the model of reclaimed water utilization system. The results show that the public acceptance degree of reclaimed water utilization in Yinchuan city is not high. To some extent, it restricts the development of reclaimed water utilization, especially the influence of economic development on residents' income and residents' understanding of reclaimed water, which makes residents have doubts about the utilization of recycled water. In particular, water quality and price, not willing to spend more money to use the relatively unsafe water quality. Secondly, this paper uses the method of system theory to study the composition of the reclaimed water reuse system, mainly including the reclaimed water supply subsystem and the reclaimed water demand subsystem, and then through the analysis of the relevant factors in each subsystem, and determines the functional relationship among the factors. The dynamic model of reclaimed water reuse system in Yinchuan city is established by using vensim ple software, and the structure and characteristics of the model are analyzed based on the causality between the important variables in the model and the main feedback loop analysis model. Finally, according to the overall plan of Yinchuan City, the paper puts forward a plan, taking 2020 as the horizontal year, and makes a historical test of the model by assigning the initial value of the model to the model. The annual growth rate of wastewater reuse is 10% and the annual growth rate of secondary treatment is 3.6% by changing the decision variable. The forecast result is: the GDP of Yinchuan City is 150.085 billion yuan by 2020, the industrial output value is 459.188 billion yuan, and the amount of reclaimed water is 93.3492 million m3. The water shortage in Yinchuan City will be effectively alleviated, groundwater and Yellow River water resources will be saved, the economic development of Yinchuan City will be promoted, and the quality of ecological environment will be further alleviated.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧夏大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：X703
本文編號(hào)：2278284
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy in Yinchuan City of Ningxia, the water supply of the city is more and more unable to meet the requirements of urban life, industry, municipal, ecology, agriculture and environment. This paper is based on the current situation of water resources shortage in Yinchuan City, combined with the National Natural Fund Project "Construction and Optimization of Wastewater Recycling and Utilization system in Yinchuan City, Ningxia based on healthy Water system", which is based on the existing research results and examples at home and abroad. Based on the questionnaire survey, this paper analyzes the public's cognition and acceptance of water resources and reclaimed water utilization in Yinchuan City, and analyzes the reasons for the acceptance, and analyzes the composition of the reclaimed water utilization system in Yinchuan City. In order to predict the relationship between the development of reclaimed water and urban economy, ecology and environment, the dynamic model of reclaimed water reuse system in Yinchuan City was constructed. It provides reference for the development and utilization of urban reclaimed water. Firstly, the paper analyzes the public acceptance degree of recycled water in Yinchuan city by questionnaire, and discusses the influence of public acceptance degree on the model of reclaimed water utilization system. The results show that the public acceptance degree of reclaimed water utilization in Yinchuan city is not high. To some extent, it restricts the development of reclaimed water utilization, especially the influence of economic development on residents' income and residents' understanding of reclaimed water, which makes residents have doubts about the utilization of recycled water. In particular, water quality and price, not willing to spend more money to use the relatively unsafe water quality. Secondly, this paper uses the method of system theory to study the composition of the reclaimed water reuse system, mainly including the reclaimed water supply subsystem and the reclaimed water demand subsystem, and then through the analysis of the relevant factors in each subsystem, and determines the functional relationship among the factors. The dynamic model of reclaimed water reuse system in Yinchuan city is established by using vensim ple software, and the structure and characteristics of the model are analyzed based on the causality between the important variables in the model and the main feedback loop analysis model. Finally, according to the overall plan of Yinchuan City, the paper puts forward a plan, taking 2020 as the horizontal year, and makes a historical test of the model by assigning the initial value of the model to the model. The annual growth rate of wastewater reuse is 10% and the annual growth rate of secondary treatment is 3.6% by changing the decision variable. The forecast result is: the GDP of Yinchuan City is 150.085 billion yuan by 2020, the industrial output value is 459.188 billion yuan, and the amount of reclaimed water is 93.3492 million m3. The water shortage in Yinchuan City will be effectively alleviated, groundwater and Yellow River water resources will be saved, the economic development of Yinchuan City will be promoted, and the quality of ecological environment will be further alleviated.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧夏大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：X703
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，本文編號(hào)：2278284
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