中國區(qū)域CFC-12、HCFC-22和HFC-134a排放量反演研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-31 07:48
【摘要】：CFC-12、HCFC-22和HFC-134a是大氣中濃度最高的CFCs、HCFCs和HFCs,同時(shí)作為制冷劑有廣泛的應(yīng)用。本研究采取自上而下方法,利用拉格朗日粒子擴(kuò)散模式FLEXPART結(jié)合2008~2011年上甸子區(qū)域本底站CFC-12、HCFC-22和HFC-134a在線觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù),估算了上述三物種中國區(qū)域排放量及源分布。本研究估算的2008~2011年我國CFC-12排放量分別為4.84kt/a、4.80kt/a、3.40kt/a和2.26kt/a,占全球排放比例分別為6.45%,6.95%,5.48%和4.43%;CFC-12排放主要集中于京津冀以及山東省、河南省等地區(qū),2008年以來排放的空間分布沒有明顯變化。2009~2010年HCFC-22排放量分別為109.91kt/a和107.95kt/a,占全球排放比例分別為29.3%和28.3%;HCFC-22的排放主要分布于京津冀、長(zhǎng)三角、山西省、河南省等地區(qū)。2010~2011年HFC-134a的排放量分別為13.53kt/a和17.35kt/a,占全球排放比例分別為8.35%和10.26%;HFC-134a的排放主要分布于京津冀、長(zhǎng)三角及山東省等地區(qū)。統(tǒng)計(jì)分析表明,利用反演源模擬結(jié)果與觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)的相關(guān)系數(shù)較先驗(yàn)源均有所提高,反演結(jié)果較先驗(yàn)源的均方根誤差均有所下降。研究結(jié)果表明,已完全停止生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)的第一代損耗臭氧層物質(zhì)(ODS)CFC-12排放量呈下降趨勢(shì),相應(yīng)下降率與發(fā)達(dá)國家減排對(duì)應(yīng)時(shí)段類似。正在凍結(jié)期的ODS過渡替代物HCFC-22排放量基本平穩(wěn)。ODS替代物HFC-134a排放量呈上升趨勢(shì),增長(zhǎng)率高于清單估算結(jié)果。應(yīng)用上述方法,探討我國HCFCs整體排放量變化。本文估算的2009~2010年中國區(qū)域HCFC-142b的排放量分別為10.82kt/a和15.42kt/a,分別占全球HCFC-142b排放量的29.7%和45.8%。結(jié)合2009~2010年HCFC-22排放量結(jié)果,表明我國HCFCs排放量呈上升趨勢(shì)。不同于HCFC-22,我國HCFC-142b的排放主要分布于京津冀、四川、山東西部以及長(zhǎng)江中下游地區(qū)。
[Abstract]:CFC-12,HCFC-22 and HFC-134a are the highest concentrations of CFCs,HCFCs and HFCs, in the atmosphere and are widely used as refrigerants. In this study, a top-down approach was adopted to estimate the emission and source distribution of the three species in China by using the Lagrange Particle Diffusion Model (FLEXPART) combined with the CFC-12,HCFC-22 and HFC-134a online observation data from 2008 to 2011 at the Shangdian background Station. The estimated CFC-12 emissions in China from 2008 to 2011 are 4.84 kt / r / a 4.80 kt / a and 2.26 kt / a, respectively, accounting for 6.45% and 6.95% and 4.43% of CFC-12 emissions respectively in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Shandong Province. In Henan Province and other regions, the spatial distribution of emissions has not changed significantly since 2009.The HCFC-22 emissions from 2009 to 2010 were 109.91kt/a and 107.95kt / a, respectively, accounting for 29.3% and 28.3kt / a of global emissions respectively. HCFC-22 emissions were mainly distributed in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Shanxi Province. From 2010 to 2011, the HFC-134a emissions of Henan and other regions were 13.53kt/a and 17.35kt / a, respectively, accounting for 8.35% and 10.26% HFC-134a of global emissions, respectively. The emissions of HFC-134a were mainly distributed in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Shandong Province. The statistical analysis shows that the correlation coefficient between the simulated results of the inversion source and the observed data is higher than that of the prior source, and the root mean square error of the inversion result is lower than that of the prior source. The results show that the (ODS) CFC-12 emissions of the first generation of ozone-depleting substances which have completely ceased production and consumption show a downward trend, and the corresponding reduction rate is similar to that of the developed countries in the corresponding period of emission reduction. The HCFC-22 emission of ODS transition substitute in freezing period is stable. The HFC-134a emission of ODS substitute is on the rise, and the growth rate is higher than the result of inventory estimation. Using the above method, the change of overall HCFCs emission in China is discussed. The estimated HCFC-142b emissions in China from 2009 to 2010 are 10.82kt/a and 15.42 kt / a, accounting for 29.7% and 45.8% of global HCFC-142b emissions, respectively. Combined with the results of HCFC-22 emissions from 2009 to 2010, the results show that the HCFCs emissions in China are on the rise. Different from HCFC-22, in China, HCFC-142b emissions are mainly distributed in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Sichuan, western Shandong and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國氣象科學(xué)研究院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：X515
本文編號(hào)：2214353
[Abstract]:CFC-12,HCFC-22 and HFC-134a are the highest concentrations of CFCs,HCFCs and HFCs, in the atmosphere and are widely used as refrigerants. In this study, a top-down approach was adopted to estimate the emission and source distribution of the three species in China by using the Lagrange Particle Diffusion Model (FLEXPART) combined with the CFC-12,HCFC-22 and HFC-134a online observation data from 2008 to 2011 at the Shangdian background Station. The estimated CFC-12 emissions in China from 2008 to 2011 are 4.84 kt / r / a 4.80 kt / a and 2.26 kt / a, respectively, accounting for 6.45% and 6.95% and 4.43% of CFC-12 emissions respectively in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Shandong Province. In Henan Province and other regions, the spatial distribution of emissions has not changed significantly since 2009.The HCFC-22 emissions from 2009 to 2010 were 109.91kt/a and 107.95kt / a, respectively, accounting for 29.3% and 28.3kt / a of global emissions respectively. HCFC-22 emissions were mainly distributed in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Shanxi Province. From 2010 to 2011, the HFC-134a emissions of Henan and other regions were 13.53kt/a and 17.35kt / a, respectively, accounting for 8.35% and 10.26% HFC-134a of global emissions, respectively. The emissions of HFC-134a were mainly distributed in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Shandong Province. The statistical analysis shows that the correlation coefficient between the simulated results of the inversion source and the observed data is higher than that of the prior source, and the root mean square error of the inversion result is lower than that of the prior source. The results show that the (ODS) CFC-12 emissions of the first generation of ozone-depleting substances which have completely ceased production and consumption show a downward trend, and the corresponding reduction rate is similar to that of the developed countries in the corresponding period of emission reduction. The HCFC-22 emission of ODS transition substitute in freezing period is stable. The HFC-134a emission of ODS substitute is on the rise, and the growth rate is higher than the result of inventory estimation. Using the above method, the change of overall HCFCs emission in China is discussed. The estimated HCFC-142b emissions in China from 2009 to 2010 are 10.82kt/a and 15.42 kt / a, accounting for 29.7% and 45.8% of global HCFC-142b emissions, respectively. Combined with the results of HCFC-22 emissions from 2009 to 2010, the results show that the HCFCs emissions in China are on the rise. Different from HCFC-22, in China, HCFC-142b emissions are mainly distributed in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Sichuan, western Shandong and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國氣象科學(xué)研究院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：X515
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