【摘要】：自2012年入冬以來,霧霾污染在我國變得越來越嚴重�？諝赓|(zhì)量與每個人每天的生活都息息相關(guān),沒有一個人愿意在渾濁的、充滿各種病菌的空氣中呼吸。不管是平民百姓、媒體輿論,還是政府機構(gòu),霧霾污染都已經(jīng)成為他們共同高度關(guān)注的話題。雖然我國目前還沒有因霧霾污染而致人死亡的事件,但隨著近期霧霾污染的加重,呼吸道疾病的發(fā)病率已經(jīng)明顯呈上升趨勢。同時霧霾污染還降低了空氣能見度,嚴重影響了交通運輸。北京機場的多架航班由于霧霾污染而無法降落的事件再次向我們敲響了霧霾治理的警鐘。為此,不得不提出以下幾個問題:霧霾污染到底是怎么產(chǎn)生的?霧霾污染的擴散和傳播過程又是怎樣的?我國對霧霾污染的研究始于20世紀90年代,2013年在全國范圍內(nèi)開始了正式的監(jiān)測研究。從國內(nèi)外對霧霾污染的研究成果來看,霧霾污染除了與天氣因素有關(guān)之外,最根本地還與工業(yè)污染物的排放、汽車尾氣和秸稈焚燒等有很大關(guān)系。從全國的監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)來看,我國霧霾污染整體呈現(xiàn)出東高西低、北高南低的分布特征。另外我國霧霾污染還呈現(xiàn)出區(qū)域性分布特征,在空間上呈現(xiàn)出聚集性。因此研究霧霾污染在區(qū)域內(nèi)傳播過程意義重大。從時間角度看,霧霾污染并不是當下的一個突發(fā)性事件,而是一直都存在但沒有引起關(guān)注的歷史問題。因此有必要研究在長期內(nèi)污染物排放對霧霾污染的影響,這對治理霧霾有積極的指導(dǎo)意義。本文從時間和空間兩個角度分別分析了霧霾污染的特征及成因。從空間角度分析了我國霧霾污染的空間聚集性及其成因和區(qū)域內(nèi)霧霾的傳播特征;從時間角度,本文以上海市為例分析了污染物排放及城市擴張與霧霾污染的長短期依存關(guān)系。首先運用主成分回歸分析法分析了我國霧霾污染的主要影響因素,結(jié)果顯示秸稈焚燒、汽車尾氣、人類日常生活和煤炭、焦炭的消費都是霧霾污染的主要排放源。其次,以上述幾個因素作為控制變量分別建立了空間自回歸模型和空間誤差模型,通過兩種模型的比較得出,是模型之外的其他因素推動了霧霾向周邊城市傳播。因此霧霾污染的治理要靠城市間協(xié)作,走共同治理的道路。然后以遞增的空間距離作為閾值建立一系列的空間權(quán)重矩陣,通過對空間誤差模型的回歸發(fā)現(xiàn),霧霾污染的空間相關(guān)性(即傳播強度)隨地理距離的增加而減弱,最大的傳播距離為500KM。因此相互距離在500KM之內(nèi)的城市可以協(xié)作起來共同治理霧霾污染。最后以上海市為例,從時間的角度分析霧霾污染與煙塵排放和城市擴張之間的長短期依存關(guān)系。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)煙塵排放不管是在長期還是短期都對霧霾污染產(chǎn)生顯著影響,而城市擴張在長期對霧霾污染存在顯著影響,在短期卻沒有顯著影響。在本文結(jié)尾處,給出了霧霾污染治理的三點政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the winter of 2012, haze pollution has become more and more serious in China. Air quality is closely related to everyone's daily life. No one wants to breathe in the muddy, germ-filled air. Haze pollution has become a common concern for ordinary people, media opinion, and government agencies. Although there have been no deaths caused by haze pollution in China, the incidence of respiratory diseases has been increasing with the aggravation of haze pollution in recent years. At the same time, haze pollution also reduces the visibility of the air, seriously affecting transportation. The fact that many flights at Beijing Airport could not land due to haze pollution once again sounded the alarm of haze's governance. Therefore, we have to put forward the following questions: how did haze pollution come into being? What is the diffusion and spread process of haze pollution? The research on haze pollution in China began in 1990's, and the formal monitoring research began in 2013 in the whole country. According to the research results of haze pollution at home and abroad, haze pollution is not only related to weather factors, but also fundamentally related to the emission of industrial pollutants, automobile exhaust gas and straw incineration. According to the national monitoring data, the distribution of haze pollution in our country is low in east high and west, north high in south and low in north. In addition, haze pollution in China also presents regional distribution and spatial aggregation. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the transmission process of haze pollution in the region. From the point of view of time, haze pollution is not a sudden event at present, but a historical problem that has always existed but has not attracted much attention. Therefore, it is necessary to study the impact of pollutant discharge on haze pollution in the long term, which has a positive guiding significance for the control of haze. In this paper, the characteristics and causes of haze pollution are analyzed from the point of view of time and space. In this paper, the spatial aggregation of haze pollution in China and its causes and the transmission characteristics of haze in the region are analyzed from the spatial point of view, and the long-term and short-term dependence of pollutant emission and urban expansion on haze pollution is analyzed in this paper, taking Shanghai as an example. The main influencing factors of haze pollution in China are analyzed by principal component regression analysis. The results show that straw burning, automobile exhaust, human daily life, coal consumption and coke consumption are the main emission sources of haze pollution. Secondly, the spatial autoregressive model and the spatial error model are established with the above-mentioned factors as control variables, and the comparison between the two models shows that it is the other factors that promote the spread of haze to the surrounding cities. Therefore, the control of haze pollution depends on the cooperation between cities and the road of common control. Then a series of spatial weight matrices are established with increasing spatial distance as threshold. By regression of spatial error model, it is found that the spatial correlation (i.e. propagation intensity) of haze pollution weakens with the increase of geographical distance. The maximum propagation distance is 500 km. Therefore, cities within 500KM can work together to control haze pollution. Finally, taking Shanghai as an example, the relationship between haze pollution and soot emission and urban expansion is analyzed from the point of view of time. The results showed that soot emission had a significant effect on haze pollution in the long term or in the short term, while urban expansion had a significant effect on haze pollution in the long run, but not in the short term. At the end of this paper, three policy suggestions on haze pollution control are given.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X513

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本文編號：2198113