京津冀機動車污染物排放總量測算及減排防控策略研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-23 16:24
【摘要】：隨著霧霾天氣出現(xiàn)的頻次越來越高,京津冀地區(qū)面臨著前所未有的大氣環(huán)境污染問題,并且,伴隨地區(qū)經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展,京津冀地區(qū)機動車的保有量增長也十分迅速,由機動車排放的污染物已成為造成霧霾天氣不可忽視的重要來源。與此同時,京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展已上升為重大國家戰(zhàn)略,環(huán)保領(lǐng)域的一體化發(fā)展已成為未來京津冀一體化發(fā)展的重要環(huán)節(jié),因此,從京津冀區(qū)域角度出發(fā),研究區(qū)域機動車污染物的總體排放情況對區(qū)域污染治理具有十分重要的意義。本文首先運用年均行駛里程法建立了2007-2011年京津冀四種常規(guī)的機動車大氣污染物(CO、NOx、HC、PM)總量多年排放清單,并從污染物排放趨勢、分車型污染物排放特征、分國家標準污染物排放特征以及區(qū)域分擔(dān)率等方面對總量排放清單進行了特征分析;其次,本文結(jié)合京津冀機動車污染治理現(xiàn)狀,以2011年為基準年,設(shè)計了2016年五種總量減排情景,分別是BAU(無控制)情景、ESV(淘汰黃標車)情景、HSR(提高排放標準)情景、PTP(公共交通優(yōu)先)情景和EMC(摩托車限行)情景,并計算分析了每種減排情景下京津冀機動車污染物總量的削減比例。最后,結(jié)合對研究結(jié)果的分析提出了京津冀機動車污染物總量控制的對策以及京津冀進行機動車污染聯(lián)合防控的管理體系。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):1)2007-2011年京津冀四種機動車污染物排放總量呈現(xiàn)逐年遞增的趨勢。其中,2011年,一氧化碳總量為253.98萬噸,氮氧化物總量為102.50萬噸,碳氫化合物排放總量為52.87萬噸,顆粒物總量為4.87萬噸;2)從車型角度看,對四種污染物總量排放貢獻最大的車型是:一氧化碳——輕型汽油客車(LDGV),氮氧化物——重型柴油車(HDV、HDT),碳氫化合物——摩托車(MC),顆粒物——重型柴油車(HDV、HDT);3)從排放標準看,對四種污染物總量最大的是國0和國1標準的老舊車輛;4)從區(qū)域分擔(dān)率看,河北省由于機動車保有量大,對四種污染物總量的貢獻最大;5)從情景分析看,淘汰黃標車對京津冀機動車污染物排放總量的削減效果最為明顯,長期來看,實施綜合的減排控制措施、建立區(qū)域機動車污染聯(lián)合防治體系、出臺機動車總量控制專項法律才是治理區(qū)域機動車污染的根本。
[Abstract]:With the increasing frequency of haze weather, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is facing an unprecedented problem of atmospheric pollution, and with the rapid development of regional economy, the number of motor vehicles in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is also increasing rapidly. Pollutants emitted by motor vehicles have become an important source of haze weather. At the same time, the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has become an important national strategy, and the integration development in the field of environmental protection has become an important link in the future development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration. Therefore, from the perspective of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, It is of great significance to study the overall emission of regional motor vehicle pollutants for regional pollution control. In this paper, the annual mileage method is first used to establish the annual emission inventory of the total amount of four kinds of conventional motor vehicle atmospheric pollutants (COHNOXN HCPM) in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei from 2007 to 2011, and from the pollutant emission trend and the emission characteristics of pollutants by vehicle type, The characteristics of total emission inventory are analyzed from the aspects of national pollutant emission characteristics and regional share rate. Secondly, this paper combines the status quo of motor vehicle pollution control in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, taking 2011 as the base year. Five total emission reduction scenarios were designed in 2016. They were BAU scenarios and EMC scenarios. The reduction ratio of the total amount of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei motor vehicle pollutants was calculated and analyzed under each emission reduction scenario. Finally, based on the analysis of the research results, the countermeasures of total pollution control of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei vehicles and the management system of combined prevention and control of motor vehicle pollution in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are put forward. It is found that the total emission of four kinds of motor vehicle pollutants from Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei increased year by year from 2007 to 2011. Of these, in 2011, the total amount of carbon monoxide was 2.5398 million tons, the total amount of nitrogen oxides was 1.025 million tons, the total amount of hydrocarbon emissions was 528700 tons, and the total amount of particulate matter was 48700 tons. The models that contribute the most to the total emission of the four pollutants are: carbon monoxide light gasoline bus (LDGV), nitrogen oxide heavy diesel vehicle (HDV HDT) and hydrocarbon-motorcycle (MC), particulate-heavy diesel vehicle (HDV / HDT) from the point of view of emission standards. The largest total amount of the four pollutants is the old vehicles of Guo0 and Guo1. From the regional sharing rate, Hebei province has the largest contribution to the total amount of the four pollutants because of the large number of motor vehicles. 5) from the perspective of scenario analysis, The elimination of yellow standard vehicles has the most obvious effect on the reduction of the total amount of motor vehicle pollutants emitted by Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei vehicles. In the long run, comprehensive emission reduction and control measures will be implemented and a joint regional vehicle pollution prevention and control system will be established. The introduction of motor vehicle total control of specific laws is the root of regional motor vehicle pollution.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X734.2
本文編號：2139965
[Abstract]:With the increasing frequency of haze weather, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is facing an unprecedented problem of atmospheric pollution, and with the rapid development of regional economy, the number of motor vehicles in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is also increasing rapidly. Pollutants emitted by motor vehicles have become an important source of haze weather. At the same time, the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has become an important national strategy, and the integration development in the field of environmental protection has become an important link in the future development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration. Therefore, from the perspective of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, It is of great significance to study the overall emission of regional motor vehicle pollutants for regional pollution control. In this paper, the annual mileage method is first used to establish the annual emission inventory of the total amount of four kinds of conventional motor vehicle atmospheric pollutants (COHNOXN HCPM) in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei from 2007 to 2011, and from the pollutant emission trend and the emission characteristics of pollutants by vehicle type, The characteristics of total emission inventory are analyzed from the aspects of national pollutant emission characteristics and regional share rate. Secondly, this paper combines the status quo of motor vehicle pollution control in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, taking 2011 as the base year. Five total emission reduction scenarios were designed in 2016. They were BAU scenarios and EMC scenarios. The reduction ratio of the total amount of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei motor vehicle pollutants was calculated and analyzed under each emission reduction scenario. Finally, based on the analysis of the research results, the countermeasures of total pollution control of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei vehicles and the management system of combined prevention and control of motor vehicle pollution in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are put forward. It is found that the total emission of four kinds of motor vehicle pollutants from Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei increased year by year from 2007 to 2011. Of these, in 2011, the total amount of carbon monoxide was 2.5398 million tons, the total amount of nitrogen oxides was 1.025 million tons, the total amount of hydrocarbon emissions was 528700 tons, and the total amount of particulate matter was 48700 tons. The models that contribute the most to the total emission of the four pollutants are: carbon monoxide light gasoline bus (LDGV), nitrogen oxide heavy diesel vehicle (HDV HDT) and hydrocarbon-motorcycle (MC), particulate-heavy diesel vehicle (HDV / HDT) from the point of view of emission standards. The largest total amount of the four pollutants is the old vehicles of Guo0 and Guo1. From the regional sharing rate, Hebei province has the largest contribution to the total amount of the four pollutants because of the large number of motor vehicles. 5) from the perspective of scenario analysis, The elimination of yellow standard vehicles has the most obvious effect on the reduction of the total amount of motor vehicle pollutants emitted by Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei vehicles. In the long run, comprehensive emission reduction and control measures will be implemented and a joint regional vehicle pollution prevention and control system will be established. The introduction of motor vehicle total control of specific laws is the root of regional motor vehicle pollution.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X734.2
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