本文選題：二氧化碳 + 灰色預測　； 參考：《大連理工大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著工業(yè)化和城市化進程的不斷推進,我國能源消費也越來越大,隨之而來的二氧化碳排放量也在不斷增加,由此帶來的環(huán)境問題也愈加突出。我國政府在2009年宣布了自愿減排目標,即到2020年單位GDP二氧化碳排放量在2005年的基礎上下降40%～45%,要實現這一目標需要各省(市、自治區(qū))共同分擔減排責任。然而,與其他國家相比,我國各省(市、自治區(qū))的經濟發(fā)展水平、能源結構、能源利用效率、二氧化碳排放強度等均存在較大差異,這使得我們不能簡單的照搬其他國家的分配經驗,而是必須尋找更為適合我國國情的分配原則和方法。本文在對國內外總量分配的原則、方法進行綜合分析的基礎上,首先通過將灰色預測和趨勢線預測的方差-協方差法組合預測我國2020年二氧化碳排放量,然后結合能源作為戰(zhàn)略性資源的特點,充分考慮地區(qū)能耗現狀及未來發(fā)展趨勢,在保障穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的前提下,采用“先確定總量,再計算增量,最終分配數量”的方法,通過構建指標體系,選擇9個代表性指標表征各地區(qū)來表現了公平性、差異性和可持續(xù)性原則,對研究對象進行定量化分析；同時通過引入熵權理論,基于歷史數據的選擇,體現分配對象的差異性和可持續(xù)性,既客觀描述各指標的重要性,也能較好反映各省市碳排放特點,從而能得到更符合地域特色的分配系數,從而構建基于多指標混合評價的熵權決策法模型,計算出各省域的碳排放配額。這種多指標體系與熵權理論相結合的方法,既兼顧了公平、差異和可持續(xù)原則,也能發(fā)揮各主體的減排積極性,具有一定可操作性,最后通過倒逼機制對各省市降低二氧化碳排放和經濟發(fā)展轉型發(fā)揮了良好的調控作用。
[Abstract]:With the development of industrialization and urbanization, the energy consumption in China is increasing, and the carbon dioxide emissions are also increasing, and the environmental problems are becoming more and more prominent. In 2009, our government announced a voluntary emission reduction target, that is, the carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP of 2020 will be reduced by 40% and 45% on the basis of 2005. To achieve this goal, all provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) need to share the responsibility for reducing emissions. However, compared with other countries, the level of economic development, energy structure, energy efficiency, carbon dioxide emission intensity and so on in the provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) of our country are quite different. This makes us not simply copy the distribution experience of other countries, but must find more suitable distribution principles and methods. On the basis of comprehensive analysis of the principles and methods of total quantity distribution at home and abroad, this paper first forecasts China's carbon dioxide emissions in 2020 by combining the variance-covariance method of grey forecast and trend line prediction. Then, combining the characteristics of energy as a strategic resource, fully considering the present situation of regional energy consumption and the future development trend, and under the premise of ensuring stable development, we adopt the method of "determining the total amount first, then calculating the increment and the final assigned amount". By constructing the index system and selecting nine representative indicators to represent each region, the principles of fairness, difference and sustainability are represented, and the quantitative analysis of the research object is carried out. At the same time, the selection of historical data is based on the introduction of entropy weight theory. Reflecting the difference and sustainability of the distribution objects, not only the importance of the indicators can be described objectively, but also the characteristics of carbon emissions of provinces and cities can be better reflected, so that the distribution coefficient can be obtained more in line with the regional characteristics. Thus, the entropy weight decision model based on multi-index mixed evaluation is constructed, and the carbon emission quotas in each province are calculated. This method, which combines the multi-index system and entropy weight theory, not only takes into account the principles of fairness, difference and sustainability, but also can give play to the initiative of various subjects in reducing emissions, and has certain maneuverability. Finally, it plays a good role in reducing carbon dioxide emission and economic development.
【學位授予單位】：大連理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X321

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本文編號：2115464