本文選題：區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展 + 主成分分析�。� 參考：《華中科技大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文研究中國區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平問題,重點考察其空間差異和發(fā)展趨勢,立足大區(qū)域視野,從文獻梳理、方法選取、體系構(gòu)建和定性定量評價分析層層推進,基本解決了以下幾個問題:第一,重新構(gòu)建了中國區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展評價體系。在大量已有研究的基礎(chǔ)上,本文結(jié)合新時期“五位一體”建設(shè)思想,從經(jīng)濟、人口、社會、科教、生態(tài)和文化六個維度重新架構(gòu)了中國區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展評價體系。該評價體系從多個領(lǐng)域反映了可持續(xù)發(fā)展的時代內(nèi)涵特征,具有極強的現(xiàn)實指導(dǎo)意義。第二,從定性和定量兩個視角評價中國區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平的空間差異。在利用主成分分析法測算中國七大區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平得分的基礎(chǔ)上,利用ArcGis軟件對區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展的空間差異進行了定性評價和歸類,運用統(tǒng)計學(xué)方法對這種區(qū)域差異做出了定量的研判。定性分析表明,絕對意義上的中國區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展綜合水平差異較小,但動態(tài)上的等級差異明顯;區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展子系統(tǒng)空間分異格局特殊性較強,且隨時間有顯著的動態(tài)變化。定量研究顯示,中國區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展綜合水平空間差異較小,一些子系統(tǒng)空間差異較大,區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平空間差異在當(dāng)前及今后一段時期內(nèi)有擴大的風(fēng)險。第三,分析七大區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平的時間演變趨勢并進行預(yù)測。本文直接以各區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平得分為對象,通過數(shù)據(jù)擬合得到預(yù)測方程的方式對今后一定時期中國區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平進行了預(yù)測。預(yù)測結(jié)果表明,未來中國區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展趨勢遵循二次曲線演變的規(guī)律,但各區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平差異可能進一步擴大。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the level of regional sustainable development in China, focusing on its spatial differences and development trends, based on a large regional perspective, combing the literature, selecting methods, building the system, and qualitative and quantitative evaluation and analysis layer by layer. The following problems have been basically solved: first, the evaluation system of regional sustainable development in China has been re-established. On the basis of a large number of previous studies, this paper reconstructs the evaluation system of China's regional sustainable development from the six dimensions of economy, population, society, science and education, ecology and culture, combined with the idea of "five-in-one" construction in the new period. The evaluation system reflects the connotation of sustainable development from many fields and has a strong practical significance. Secondly, the spatial difference of regional sustainable development level in China is evaluated from qualitative and quantitative perspectives. On the basis of using principal component analysis method to estimate the scores of sustainable development level of seven regions in China, the spatial differences of regional sustainable development are evaluated and classified qualitatively by using ArcGis software. A quantitative study of this regional difference was made using statistical methods. The qualitative analysis shows that the comprehensive level of regional sustainable development in China is relatively small in absolute sense, but the dynamic grade difference is obvious, and the spatial differentiation pattern of regional sustainable development subsystem is special. And there are significant dynamic changes with time. The quantitative research shows that the spatial difference of regional sustainable development level is small and some subsystems are different greatly. The spatial difference of regional sustainable development level has the risk of expansion in the present and future period. Third, analyze and forecast the time evolution trend of sustainable development level in seven regions. Taking the scores of regional sustainable development level as the object, this paper forecasts the regional sustainable development level of China in a certain period in the future by fitting the data to obtain the prediction equation. The prediction results show that the trend of regional sustainable development in China follows the law of conic evolution in the future, but the difference of regional sustainable development level may be further expanded.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F127;X22

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