本文選題：營養(yǎng)鹽濃度 + 群落結(jié)構(gòu)�。� 參考：《中國海洋大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：黃東海是我國經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展的重要支持系統(tǒng)之一,過去幾十年黃東海生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生了劇烈變化,對海洋生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的健康產(chǎn)生了深刻影響。黃東海生態(tài)環(huán)境的變化受到氣候變化和人類活動的雙力驅(qū)動,隨著全球變暖和人類活動影響的加劇,海洋生態(tài)環(huán)境所面臨的壓力驟增。本文的主要目標(biāo)是利用一個三維物理-生物耦合模型預(yù)測未來黃東海生態(tài)環(huán)境,利用IPCC報告中耦合模式給出的未來氣候預(yù)測降尺度驅(qū)動區(qū)域海洋水動力模型和生態(tài)模型,并結(jié)合未來河流營養(yǎng)鹽載荷特征,預(yù)測未來黃東海生態(tài)環(huán)境對氣候變化、河流營養(yǎng)鹽排放變化的響應(yīng)。本文選取FGOALS模式在RCP4.5情景下對未來氣候的預(yù)測作為大氣強(qiáng)迫,結(jié)合GlobalNEWS模型在兩個極端情景下的未來河流營養(yǎng)鹽載荷,得到未來黃東海營養(yǎng)鹽濃度、營養(yǎng)鹽結(jié)構(gòu)、初級生產(chǎn)和浮游植物群落組成。結(jié)果表明,未來兩個情景下,河口鄰近海區(qū)、蘇北淺灘及黃海中部無機(jī)氮(DIN)、無機(jī)磷(DIP)營養(yǎng)鹽濃度將顯著增加,硅酸鹽(SIL)濃度在黃海有所增加,海區(qū)富營養(yǎng)化加劇。GO情景下,河流無機(jī)氮載荷增幅較大,各海區(qū)磷限制更加顯著；AM情景下,由于河流無機(jī)磷載荷增幅較大,海區(qū)氮磷比有所下降。由于未來氮、磷營養(yǎng)鹽升高,黃海中部及東海北部初級生產(chǎn)力升高,黃海冷水團(tuán)西側(cè)鋒面及長江口外海區(qū)增幅最大,AM情景初級生產(chǎn)力高于GO。未來硅酸鹽濃度變化較小,黃海硅藻生物量沒有明顯變化,而氮、磷營養(yǎng)鹽增長,導(dǎo)致甲藻生物量升高,硅甲藻比下降,硅成為一個重要的限制因子；長江口鄰近海區(qū)由于受長江營養(yǎng)鹽的補(bǔ)充,硅酸鹽未被完全消耗,硅、甲藻生物量均升高,群落結(jié)構(gòu)變化不大。通過敏感性實驗對各海區(qū)未來水動力變化、河流載荷變化的相對貢獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行評估：相對于水動力環(huán)境改變,河流氮、磷營養(yǎng)鹽排放的增長是未來氮、磷營養(yǎng)鹽濃度增加的主要原因：河流硅酸鹽載荷不變,硅酸鹽濃度受外來海區(qū)輸運(yùn)影響,另外,硅藻、生物硅通過水平對流擴(kuò)散并在局地礦化也使硅酸鹽分布改變,水動力環(huán)境改變對于硅酸鹽濃度變化的貢獻(xiàn)較大。營養(yǎng)鹽收支分析表明,未來對流輸運(yùn)有助于黃海營養(yǎng)鹽濃度增加,由于河流氮、磷營養(yǎng)鹽排放增長,夏季生物量升高碎屑沉降在底層礦化使得層化季節(jié)黃海冷水團(tuán)底部營養(yǎng)鹽濃度增長;長江口鄰近海區(qū)營養(yǎng)鹽濃度增長主要受沖淡水羽流影響。未來各海區(qū)生物量升高,生物過程增強(qiáng)加大對營養(yǎng)鹽的消耗。由于未來黑潮等開邊界流量、營養(yǎng)鹽濃度變化未知,本研究僅考慮了上邊界大氣動力-熱力強(qiáng)迫和河流營養(yǎng)鹽載荷的未來情景,初步完成了海洋生態(tài)環(huán)境情景預(yù)測的嘗試。獲得更精確的未來河流載荷數(shù)據(jù),可改善生態(tài)預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確性。
[Abstract]:The Yellow and East China Sea is one of the important supporting systems for the economic and social development of our country. The structure of the ecosystem of the East China Sea has changed dramatically in the past few decades, which has had a profound impact on the health of the marine ecosystem. The changes of ecological environment in the East and Yellow Sea are driven by climate change and human activities. With the increase of global warming and the impact of human activities, the pressure on the marine ecological environment increases sharply. The main objective of this paper is to use a three-dimensional physical-biological coupling model to predict the ecological environment of the future East China Sea, and to use the coupling model in the IPCC report to predict the downscale driving regional hydrodynamic model and ecological model of the future climate. Combined with the characteristics of future river nutrient load, the response of ecological environment of the future East China Sea to climate change and river nutrient discharge change is predicted. In this paper, the prediction of future climate by FGOALS model under RCP4.5 scenario is selected as atmospheric forcing, and the nutrient concentration and structure of the future East and Yellow Sea are obtained by combining the future river nutrient load of GlobalNEWS model in two extreme scenarios. Primary production and phytoplankton community composition. The results showed that the nutrient concentrations of inorganic nitrogen (DINN) and inorganic phosphorus (DIPs) in the estuarine adjacent area, the shoal of Subei and the middle of the Yellow Sea would increase significantly, the concentration of silicate sil) in the Yellow Sea would increase, and the eutrophication of the sea area would increase under the .go scenario. The increase of inorganic nitrogen load in rivers was larger, and the phosphorus limitation in each sea area was more obvious. Under AM scenario, the ratio of nitrogen and phosphorus in the sea area was decreased due to the larger increase of inorganic phosphorus load in rivers. Due to the increase of nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients in the future, primary productivity increased in the central part of Huang Hai and in the northern part of the East China Sea. The primary productivity of AM scenario in the western front of Huang Hai cold water mass and in the offshore area of the Yangtze River Estuary was higher than that in Go. In the future, the concentration of silicate changed little, but the biomass of Huang Hai diatoms did not change obviously, but nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients increased, which led to the increase of biomass and the decrease of the ratio of diatoms to algae. Silicon became an important limiting factor. Due to the supplement of nutrients from the Yangtze River, silicate was not completely consumed in the adjacent area of the Yangtze River Estuary, and the biomass of silicon and Pyrolima increased, and the community structure changed little. The relative contribution of hydrodynamic changes and river load changes in each sea area is evaluated by sensitivity experiments: compared with the hydrodynamic environment change, the increase of river nitrogen and phosphorus nutrient discharge is the future nitrogen. The main reasons for the increase of phosphorus nutrient concentration are as follows: the load of silicate in rivers remains unchanged, and the concentration of silicate is affected by the transport in the foreign sea area. In addition, the distribution of silicate is also changed by the horizontal convection diffusion of diatoms and biological silicon and local mineralization. The change of hydrodynamic environment contributes greatly to the change of silicate concentration. The analysis of nutrient budget shows that the convective transport in the future will contribute to the increase of nutrient concentration in the Yellow Sea, and the increase of nutrient discharge due to nitrogen and phosphorus in the river. Biomass rise in summer and clastic sedimentation in the bottom mineralize the nutrient concentration at the bottom of the Huang Hai cold water mass in stratified season and the nutrient concentration in the adjacent area of the Changjiang Estuary is mainly affected by the flushing fresh water plume. In the future, the biomass of each sea area will increase, and the biological process will increase the consumption of nutrients. Due to the future Kuroshio open boundary flow and the unknown change of nutrient concentration, this study only considered the future scenarios of upper boundary atmospheric dynamic-thermal forcing and river nutrient load, and preliminarily completed the prediction of marine ecological environment scenarios. More accurate future river load data can improve the accuracy of ecological prediction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X145

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