本文選題：環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線 + 經濟增長　； 參考：《中國人口·資源與環(huán)境》2016年10期

【摘要】：促進環(huán)境質量改善是“十三五”時期實現(xiàn)綠色發(fā)展和最終全面建成小康社會的重要目標和任務。隨著經濟進入新常態(tài)和環(huán)境治理政策的強勢推進,中國環(huán)境質量是否已經跨越峰值和進入持續(xù)改善的通道?本文基于環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線這一理論工具,依據(jù)環(huán)境統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)和國際經驗事實判斷中國是否到達環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線的拐點和具備促使環(huán)境質量持續(xù)改善的經濟特征。首先,應用中國各省份1998—2013年的面板數(shù)據(jù),對人均收入水平與主要大氣污染物排放的關系進行回歸擬合發(fā)現(xiàn),人均煙粉塵排放自1998年以來持續(xù)下降,人均二氧化硫、氮氧化物排放均在“十二五”中前期到達峰值。大部分東部省份已經越過環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線的拐點,但環(huán)境質量改善仍然緩慢。多數(shù)中部省份處于峰值階段,而西部省份大都處于經濟增長與環(huán)境質量惡化的矛盾階段。其次,基于污染物排放的驅動因素框架,將中國當前的經濟特征與美、日、韓三國跨越環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線拐點的經驗進行比較,結論表明中國目前已基本具備了跨越環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線拐點的經濟驅動條件,但是相對滯后的城鎮(zhèn)化進程將會導致污染物排放峰值的扁平化和波動性。以主要污染物排放在2014年的基礎上削減30%—40%作為環(huán)境質量全面改善的轉折點判斷,中國環(huán)境質量將在2025年左右趨于全面改善。最后,為了促進環(huán)境質量全面改善,認為應該根據(jù)各地區(qū)經濟發(fā)展與環(huán)境污染形勢的不同,實施差別化環(huán)境治理政策。同時積極防范新一輪城鎮(zhèn)化過程中的環(huán)境風險,進一步強化區(qū)域環(huán)境污染的協(xié)同治理。
[Abstract]:Promoting the improvement of environmental quality is the important goal and task of realizing green development and building a well-off society in the 13th Five-Year Plan period. With the economy entering the new normal and the strong promotion of environmental governance policy, has China's environmental quality crossed the peak and entered the path of continuous improvement? Based on the environmental Kuznets curve as a theoretical tool, this paper judges whether China has reached the inflection point of the environmental Kuznets curve and has the economic characteristics to promote the continuous improvement of the environmental quality according to the environmental statistics data and the international empirical facts. First of all, using the panel data from 1998 to 2013, the relationship between the per capita income level and the emission of major air pollutants is fitted. It is found that the per capita smoke dust emissions have been decreasing since 1998, and the per capita sulfur dioxide emissions have been decreasing. The emission of nitrogen oxides reached its peak in the middle and early period of the 12th Five-Year Plan. Most eastern provinces have crossed the inflection point of the environmental Kuznets curve, but the improvement of environmental quality is still slow. Most of the central provinces are in the peak stage, while most of the western provinces are in the contradictory stage of economic growth and environmental quality deterioration. Secondly, based on the framework of the driving factors of pollutant emissions, the current economic characteristics of China are compared with the experiences of the United States, Japan and South Korea crossing the inflection point of the environmental Kuznets curve. The conclusion shows that China has the economic driving conditions to cross the inflection point of the environmental Kuznets curve, but the lagging urbanization process will result in the flattening and fluctuation of the peak emission of pollutants. Based on the 30-40% reduction of major pollutant emissions in 2014 as the turning point for overall improvement of environmental quality, China's environmental quality will tend to improve in 2025. Finally, in order to promote the overall improvement of environmental quality, it is considered that the differential environmental treatment policy should be implemented according to the different economic development and environmental pollution situation in different regions. At the same time, the environmental risks in the new round of urbanization should be prevented actively, and regional environmental pollution should be further strengthened.
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本文編號：1871381