本文選題：城市熱島效應(yīng) + 高溫過程　； 參考：《南京大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：環(huán)太湖地區(qū)是我國城市化發(fā)展水平最高的地區(qū)之一,研究其城市化對大氣邊界層、天氣和氣候過程的影響對提高城市氣象服務(wù)水平、城市發(fā)展規(guī)劃有重要的指導(dǎo)作用。本文結(jié)合臺站資料、衛(wèi)星遙感觀測和WRF模式分析了近十年來環(huán)太湖地區(qū)城市熱島的時空變化特征,研究了高溫過程中的城市熱島效應(yīng),探討了城市化對區(qū)域天氣、氣候的影響。首先,本文基于2003-2013年臺站資料分析了環(huán)太湖地區(qū)城市熱島特征及城市熱島增溫率的季節(jié)變化和年變化規(guī)律。結(jié)果表明,參考站的選取對城市熱島研究結(jié)果的影響很大,用常熟站和張家港站為參考站得到的城市熱島強度高,其日變化表現(xiàn)為夜高晝低的“凹”字形特征,而以東山站為參考站得到的熱島強度則表現(xiàn)為晝高夜低的日變化特征。盡管近十年來城市增溫現(xiàn)象不明顯,但城市熱島增溫率和城市化增溫貢獻率研究結(jié)果顯示,城市熱島近年來仍然有增強的趨勢,城市化對區(qū)域增溫貢獻顯著。其次,結(jié)合臺站資料和MODIS衛(wèi)星遙感觀測分析發(fā)現(xiàn),環(huán)太湖地區(qū)中午不穩(wěn)定類的天數(shù)最多,約占總天數(shù)50%,且近十年來呈增加趨勢；弱不穩(wěn)定類和中性類的天數(shù)呈減少趨勢。在不同穩(wěn)定條件下測得的城市熱島結(jié)果表明,隨著白天穩(wěn)定度由不穩(wěn)定轉(zhuǎn)變到中性,地表熱島和大氣熱島強度均逐漸減弱。夜間地表熱島的研究結(jié)果受參考站的影響很大,東山站及常熟站受環(huán)境和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展影響,地表溫度高,以之為參考站得到夜間的地表熱島強度非常弱。若選取張家港站或太湖上風(fēng)向的郊區(qū)為參考站,則能很好地體現(xiàn)地表熱島的季節(jié)性差異,即白天表現(xiàn)為春夏高、秋冬弱的特征,夜間表現(xiàn)為春季強、夏季弱的特征。最后,結(jié)合觀測資料和數(shù)值模擬研究了2013年夏季高溫過程對城市熱島效應(yīng)的影響。觀測結(jié)果顯示,2013年夏季高溫過程影響范圍廣,對城市、小城鎮(zhèn)和郊區(qū)均有顯著的增溫作用。與往年相比,在白天,郊區(qū)氣溫增加更明顯,使城郊溫差減小,大氣熱島強度減弱；在夜間,城郊溫差增大,大氣熱島強度會比往年偏高。然而,對地表城市熱島而言,日間的地表熱島較強,略高于往年極不穩(wěn)定天氣條件下的地表熱島強度。進一步的數(shù)值模擬研究表明YSU邊界層方案對氣溫、地表溫度和相對濕度的模擬結(jié)果較好,MYJ邊界層方案對風(fēng)速和比濕的模擬結(jié)果略好。模式雖能較準(zhǔn)確地模擬高溫期間的氣溫變化趨勢,但會低估氣溫,高估相對濕度。各參數(shù)化方案對地表溫度的模擬結(jié)果差異也較大。尤其是在夜間,YSU方案對城市地表溫度的模擬效果好,對郊區(qū)及水體的模擬能力差；MYJ方案模擬水體的表面溫度與遙感觀測結(jié)果相近,但會嚴重低估城市地表溫度。城市三維結(jié)構(gòu)復(fù)雜加上模式本身對水汽和風(fēng)場的模擬能力不足,使得模式對比濕和風(fēng)速的模擬結(jié)果較差。
[Abstract]:The area around Taihu Lake is one of the areas with the highest level of urbanization in China. The study of the influence of urbanization on the atmospheric boundary layer, weather and climate process plays an important guiding role in improving the level of urban meteorological service and urban development planning. Based on the station data, satellite remote sensing observation and WRF model, this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of urban heat island around Taihu Lake in recent ten years, studies the urban heat island effect in the process of high temperature, and discusses the influence of urbanization on regional weather and climate. Firstly, based on the data of stations from 2003 to 2013, the characteristics of urban heat island in Taihu Lake region and the seasonal and annual variation of urban heat island temperature increase rate are analyzed. The results show that the selection of reference stations has a great influence on the research results of urban heat island. The intensity of urban heat island obtained by Changshu station and Zhangjiagang station is high, and the diurnal variation is "concave" character of high night height and low day. The intensity of heat island obtained from Dongshan station as reference station is characterized by diurnal variation of high day and low night. Although the phenomenon of urban warming is not obvious in recent ten years, the research results of urban heat island warming rate and urbanization warming contribution rate show that the urban heat island still has an increasing trend in recent years, and urbanization contributes significantly to regional warming. Secondly, combined with station data and MODIS satellite remote sensing observation and analysis, it is found that the number of days around Taihu Lake is the most at noon, accounting for about 50 days of the total number of days, and in the last ten years, the number of days of weak unstable class and neutral type is decreasing. The results of urban heat island measured under different stable conditions show that the intensity of surface heat island and atmospheric heat island decrease gradually with the change of day stability from instability to neutrality. The research results of the night surface heat island are greatly affected by the reference station, Dongshan station and Changshu station are affected by the environment and economic development, the surface temperature is high, and the intensity of the surface heat island at night is very weak. If the Zhangjiagang station or the suburb of the wind direction on Taihu Lake is selected as the reference station, the seasonal difference of the surface heat island can be well reflected, that is, the characteristics of spring and summer are high in daytime, weak in autumn and winter, strong in spring and weak in summer at night. Finally, the effects of summer high temperature on the urban heat island effect in the summer of 2013 are studied by means of observational data and numerical simulation. The observation results show that the summer high temperature process in 2013 has a wide range of effects, and has a significant warming effect on cities, small towns and suburbs. Compared with the previous years, the temperature increases more obviously in the suburbs during the day, which decreases the temperature difference in the suburbs and weakens the intensity of the atmospheric heat island, but at night, the intensity of the thermal islands in the suburbs will be higher than that in the previous years. However, for the surface urban heat island, the surface heat island is stronger in daytime, which is slightly higher than the intensity of the surface heat island under the extremely unstable weather conditions in previous years. Further numerical simulation results show that the simulation results of YSU boundary layer scheme for air temperature, surface temperature and relative humidity are better than that of YSU scheme for wind speed and specific humidity. Although the model can accurately simulate the trend of temperature change during high temperature, it will underestimate the temperature and overestimate the relative humidity. The simulation results of various parameterized schemes for surface temperature are also quite different. Especially at night, YSU scheme has good simulation effect on urban surface temperature, and MYJ scheme is similar to remote sensing observation results, but it will seriously underestimate the urban surface temperature. Due to the complex three-dimensional structure of the city and the insufficient ability of the model itself to simulate the water vapor and wind fields, the simulation results of the model compared with the wet and the wind speed are poor.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X16;X87

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