本文選題：信息熵 + 總量控制��； 參考：《浙江理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：以煤炭為主要能源消費(fèi)方式的工業(yè)化粗放式發(fā)展帶來(lái)的高強(qiáng)度、高集中度大氣污染物排放,使我國(guó)很多城市各種環(huán)境污染問(wèn)題井噴式爆發(fā)。大氣污染一方面嚴(yán)重影響人們身體健康,另一方面,由于污染治理帶來(lái)的成本也阻礙了我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,于是,控制大氣污染物總量排放作為一種行之有效的治污手段應(yīng)運(yùn)而生。而要實(shí)現(xiàn)大氣污染物總量排放控制目標(biāo),就要對(duì)污染物排放進(jìn)行合理的總量分配,將污染物排放量具體分配給各地區(qū)后,才能對(duì)總量排放進(jìn)行有效的控制。當(dāng)前,我國(guó)對(duì)于大氣污染物總量的分配方法研究雖然有很多,但很少有涉及怎樣將總量控制目標(biāo)公平而又有效地分配給各排污者,大都是從公平或者效率最大化的一個(gè)方面進(jìn)行總量分配�？紤]公平方面的大氣污染物總量分配方案,大都采取主觀賦權(quán)的方法來(lái)分配,而主觀賦權(quán)的分配方案由于過(guò)多的人為主觀意愿,本來(lái)就存在著不合理性；基于效率最大化的大氣污染物總量分配的研究,則還停留在理論階段。這些現(xiàn)實(shí),無(wú)疑都會(huì)影響到國(guó)家對(duì)大氣污染物總量控制目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)。為此,本文運(yùn)用信息熵這一物理學(xué)概念,其能夠?qū)ο到y(tǒng)的均衡性進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)的特性,建立了基于信息熵模型的大氣污染物分配模型。在綜合考慮我國(guó)各省市與大氣污染物排放有關(guān)的因素客觀差異的前提下,從效率與公平兩方面同時(shí)考慮,選取影響大氣污染物總量分配的指標(biāo)體系,同時(shí)確定總量分配模型的技術(shù)路線、應(yīng)用規(guī)則、約束條件以及計(jì)算方法,最后求解出各省市污染物總量分配目標(biāo)值。并以我國(guó)SO_2總量排放為例,將這一分配方法應(yīng)用到我國(guó)SO_2總量分配中,首先對(duì)我國(guó)SO_2排放進(jìn)行了基于現(xiàn)狀的信息熵值分析；然后,利用環(huán)境庫(kù)茲涅茨曲線模型(EKC)對(duì)我國(guó)2015年SO_2總量排放進(jìn)行了科學(xué)的預(yù)測(cè),并將此預(yù)測(cè)值作為2015年我國(guó)SO_2排放的總量控制目標(biāo),以2012年為基準(zhǔn)年,設(shè)定了四種不同的SO_2總量?jī)?yōu)化分配方案；最后,通過(guò)對(duì)比不同優(yōu)化方案下的加權(quán)信息熵值大小,得出了最優(yōu)的SO_2總量分配方案,并對(duì)基于信息熵的總量分配模型做了評(píng)價(jià)。本文主要得出以下結(jié)論：基于現(xiàn)狀的信息熵值表明：我國(guó)各省市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展差異總體上越來(lái)越小、單位土地面積排放的SO_2總量在逐步減小,這些結(jié)論與我國(guó)當(dāng)前的實(shí)際情況相符合；總量分配模型的結(jié)果表明：我國(guó)SO_2總量排放重點(diǎn)削減的省份有河北、山西、內(nèi)蒙古、吉林、山東、云南、陜西、甘肅、青海、寧夏、新疆等,削減目標(biāo)次之的省份是黑龍江、江西與河南等,總量分配結(jié)果能夠較好地體現(xiàn)當(dāng)前我國(guó)SO_2排放的實(shí)際,同時(shí)也能夠滿足總量控制的基本要求�；谀Ｐ驮u(píng)價(jià)的結(jié)果分析表明：優(yōu)化后分配方案一的加權(quán)信息熵值比優(yōu)化前變大,一方面體現(xiàn)了優(yōu)化的合理性,另一方面說(shuō)明了用EKC模型預(yù)測(cè)SO_2排放總量的可靠性。總之,本文建立的基于信息熵模型的大氣污染物總量分配模型,為污染物排放總量分配提供了一個(gè)新的視角,同時(shí),積極開展排污權(quán)交易制度等工作對(duì)完善我國(guó)大氣污染物總量控制策略具有重大的意義,為其它類型污染物總量分配與總量控制策略也提供了一定的借鑒作用。
[Abstract]:The industrial extensive development of coal as the main energy consumption pattern brings high intensity and high concentration of air pollutants, which makes the blowout of various environmental pollution problems in many cities of our country. On the one hand, air pollution seriously affects people's health. On the other hand, the cost caused by pollution control has also hindered the economy of our country. As a result, the control of the total emission of air pollutants has emerged as an effective means of pollution control. In order to achieve the goal of controlling the total emission of air pollutants, it is necessary to allocate the total amount of pollutants in a reasonable amount, and then assign the pollutant emission to various regions in order to effectively control the total emission. At present, there are many studies on the total amount of air pollutant distribution in China, but there are few concerns about how to allocate the total amount control objective fairly and effectively to all the polluters. Most of them allocate the total amount from one aspect of fairness or efficiency maximization. The allocation scheme of subjective empowerment is allocated, and the allocation scheme of subjective empowerment is unreasonable because of too many subjective intentions. The study of the total amount distribution of air pollutants based on the maximum efficiency is still in the theoretical stage. These realities will undoubtedly affect the state's goal of controlling the total amount of air pollutants. For this reason, this paper uses the concept of information entropy, which can evaluate the equilibrium of the system, and establishes an air pollutant distribution model based on the information entropy model, which is based on two aspects of efficiency and fairness on the premise of considering the objective differences of the factors related to the emission of air pollutants in China. At the same time, we choose the index system that affects the total amount distribution of the air pollutants, and determine the technical route of the total amount distribution model, the application rules, the constraint conditions and the calculation method, and finally solve the target value of the total amount distribution of the pollutants in various provinces and cities. Taking the total emission of SO_2 in China as an example, this distribution method is applied to the total amount distribution of SO_2 in China. Firstly, the information entropy analysis based on the status quo of China's SO_2 emission is analyzed. Then, the environmental Kuznets curve model (EKC) is used to predict the total emission of SO_2 in China in 2015, and the forecast value is used as the total amount control target of the SO_2 emission in China in 2015, and four different kinds of SO_2 are set in 2012. In the end, the optimal SO_2 total allocation scheme is obtained by comparing the weighted information entropy value of different optimization schemes, and the total allocation model based on information entropy is evaluated. The following conclusion is drawn in this paper: the information entropy value based on the present situation shows that the overall economic development difference in China's provinces and cities is the overall difference. The total amount of SO_2 emissions per unit land area is gradually decreasing. These conclusions are in line with the actual situation in China. The results of the total amount distribution model show that the provinces of China's total emission reduction are Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Shandong, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and so on. The primary provinces are Heilongjiang, Jiangxi and Henan. The total distribution results can well reflect the actual SO_2 emission in our country and meet the basic requirements of the total amount control. On the other hand, the reliability of the total amount of SO_2 emission is predicted by EKC model. In a word, the total distribution model of air pollutants based on the information entropy model provides a new perspective for the distribution of the total amount of pollutants. At the same time, actively carrying out the pollution emission trading system and so on to improve the air pollution in China. The total volume control strategy is of great significance, and it also provides a reference for other types of pollutant total allocation and total control strategy.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：X51

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