本文選題：南水北調(diào)東線 + 風險識別　； 參考：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：南水北調(diào)東線工程長江~洪澤湖段是東線工程南起始段,該區(qū)域水網(wǎng)地區(qū)河流交錯,與輸水干線互通,化工企業(yè)眾多,環(huán)境敏感區(qū)與環(huán)境風險源疊置,運行過程中存在各種不確定性因素,可能導致輸水系統(tǒng)破壞,引發(fā)供水危機。本研究以南水北調(diào)東線工程長江~洪澤湖段為研究區(qū)域,開展流域風險源的識別研究工作,評估環(huán)境風險源的危害程度和級別,對重點區(qū)域應急儲備物資進行篩選、規(guī)劃,建立基于Web GIS環(huán)境風險源評估及應急物資儲備平臺,實現(xiàn)風險源和物資儲備點的直觀可視化。通過調(diào)研,綜合考慮風險源識別與評價的各種因素,基于改進的層次分析法構(gòu)建南水北調(diào)東線工程長江~洪澤湖段企業(yè)風險源識別評價指標體系,包括風險源因素在內(nèi)的3個約束層和風險源毒害性在內(nèi)的9個指標層。進一步將識別與評價模型程序化,并對流域內(nèi)22家風險源進行了識別評估,劃分出4個風險等級并作出了風險標注。本文將應急物資的篩選融入應急處置技術(shù)篩選和評估的研究之中,設(shè)計了基于CBR-AHP-VIKOR建立環(huán)境污染應急處置技術(shù)及應急物資篩選體系。首先基于CBR原理進行相似案例匹配,檢索出相似案例及其應用的應急處置技術(shù)。然后運用R-AHP對應急技術(shù)進行篩選,形成最佳的應急技術(shù)處置方案及對應的物資。最后,綜合考慮物資的各個屬性,基于多準則妥協(xié)解排序法(VIKOR)方法對應急物資進行篩選和評估,確定最佳的應急處置物資。以2009年江蘇鹽城標新化工“2.20”酚污染事件進行實例反演,計算結(jié)果表明該方法可以應用到現(xiàn)實的突發(fā)水污染應急處置中。以Visual Studio為主要開發(fā)工具,設(shè)計了基于Web GIS環(huán)境風險源評估及應急物資儲備平臺。平臺包括系統(tǒng)管理、風險評估管理和物資篩選管理3項系統(tǒng)功能模塊。以南水北調(diào)東線長江~洪澤湖段為示范區(qū)域,通過江蘇鹽城標新化工酚污染事件進行平臺應用,結(jié)果表明本系統(tǒng)能夠確定到流域內(nèi)風險源等級,并可以直觀的展示事故周邊所需物資的儲存位置,實現(xiàn)了洪澤湖區(qū)域風險識別及物資儲備的可視化。
[Abstract]:The Yangtze River to Hongzehu section of the East Route Project of South-to-North Water transfer Project is the southern starting section of the East Route Project. The rivers in this area are interlaced with the main water conveyance lines, there are many chemical enterprises, and the environmental sensitive areas are overlaid with the environmental risk sources. There are various uncertain factors during operation, which may lead to the destruction of water delivery system and lead to water supply crisis. In this study, the Yangtze River to Hongze Lake section of the East Route Project of South-to-North Water transfer Project is taken as the study area to carry out the research work on the identification of the basin risk sources, to assess the harm degree and level of the environmental risk sources, and to screen and plan the emergency reserve materials in the key regions. Based on Web GIS environmental risk source evaluation and emergency material storage platform, the visual visualization of risk source and material reserve point is realized. Through investigation and investigation, considering all kinds of factors of risk source identification and evaluation, based on the improved Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a risk source identification and evaluation index system for enterprises of Yangtze River to Hongze Lake section of South-to-North Water transfer Project is constructed. Three constraint layers including risk source factors and nine index layers including risk source toxicity. Furthermore, the identification and evaluation model is programmed, and 22 risk sources in the basin are identified and evaluated, 4 risk grades are classified and risk tagging is made. In this paper, the screening of emergency materials is integrated into the study of emergency disposal technology selection and evaluation, and the establishment of environmental pollution emergency disposal technology and emergency material screening system based on CBR-AHP-VIKOR is designed. Firstly, the similar cases are matched based on the CBR principle, and the similar cases and their emergency disposal techniques are retrieved. Then R-AHP is used to screen the emergency technology to form the best emergency technology disposal scheme and corresponding materials. Finally, considering the properties of materials, the method of VIKOR-based multi-criteria compromise solution is used to screen and evaluate the emergency materials to determine the best materials for emergency disposal. Based on the example of "2.20" phenol pollution event in Yancheng Standard, Jiangsu Province in 2009, the calculation results show that the method can be applied to the emergency treatment of sudden water pollution in reality. With Visual Studio as the main development tool, the environment risk source assessment and emergency material reserve platform based on Web GIS are designed. The platform includes three functional modules: system management, risk assessment management and material screening management. Taking the Yangtze River to Hongze Lake section of the East Route of South-to-North Water transfer as the demonstration area, the platform application is carried out through the new chemical phenol pollution event in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province. The results show that the system can determine the risk source grade in the basin. The storage location of materials needed around the accident can be displayed intuitively, and the risk identification and material storage visualization in Hongze Lake area can be realized.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X52;X824

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