本文選題：樂安江　切入點(diǎn)：徑流量　出處：《東南大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：鄱陽湖是我國最大的淡水湖泊,近年來湖體水質(zhì)下降趨勢(shì)明顯。開展樂安江流域總磷輸移研究對(duì)鄱陽湖水環(huán)境保護(hù)與改善具有一定的實(shí)際意義。本文以樂安江流域?yàn)檠芯繉?duì)象,分析了流域總磷濃度時(shí)空分布特征,基于HYPE模型模擬了該流域徑流與總磷輸移過程,估算了總磷輸出負(fù)荷,探究了不同化肥施用量與降雨條件下的總磷濃度和輸出負(fù)荷。結(jié)合MPI-ESM-LR氣候模式,預(yù)測(cè)了樂安江流域未來15年總磷輸出負(fù)荷。本文的主要工作和結(jié)論如下：(1)2010年10月-2011年8月,樂安江TP濃度隨季節(jié)變化顯著,春季最好,夏季最差。空間上,夏季TP濃度由上游至下游逐漸增加,其他季節(jié)無明顯變化規(guī)律。TP濃度與降雨量變化趨勢(shì)一致,降雨量較大的7、8月份,TP濃度升高；降雨量較小的2-4月,TP濃度相應(yīng)減小。TP濃度與耕地面積和城鄉(xiāng)用地面積占子流域總面積的比例呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系,與林地面積和草地面積占子流域總面積的比例呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系；TP濃度對(duì)耕地面積、城鄉(xiāng)用地面積及林地面積占子流域面積比例的變化較為敏感。(2)基于1978年1月1日-1986年12月31日的氣象和水文數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)建樂安江流域HYPE徑流模型。模型在率定期和驗(yàn)證期都達(dá)到了理想的精度。率定期,六個(gè)水文站的日徑流Ens系數(shù)和日確定性系數(shù)彤均大于0.80,多年徑流相對(duì)誤差最大為-10.24%。驗(yàn)證期,六個(gè)水文站的日徑流Ens系數(shù)和日確定性系數(shù)啟均大于0.80,除三都站多年徑流相對(duì)誤差Re達(dá)14.53%外,其余站點(diǎn)均小于10%,總體效果較好。(3)在己構(gòu)建的徑流模型基礎(chǔ)上,利用HYPE模型模擬流域TP輸移過程。模型在監(jiān)測(cè)期表現(xiàn)良好,三個(gè)水質(zhì)監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)納西效率系數(shù)Ens均達(dá)0.5以上,相對(duì)誤差RE最大為16.67%。由模型輸出結(jié)果估算樂安江流域2010年10月-2011年9月TP輸出負(fù)荷為926.98t。(4)TP濃度和輸出負(fù)荷隨化肥施用量的增加而增加,但變化幅度不大。TP濃度和輸出負(fù)荷受降雨量影響較大,降雨量減少20%,TP年平均濃度和年輸出負(fù)荷分別降低35.6%和48.4%；降雨量增加20%,TP年平均濃度和年輸出負(fù)荷分別增加37.3%和91.0%。進(jìn)一步說明降雨-徑流因子是引起非點(diǎn)源磷污染的重要因素。(5)未來水質(zhì)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果顯示：2020-2035年,樂安江流域TP輸出負(fù)荷呈波動(dòng)上升趨勢(shì)。高排放情景下TP輸出負(fù)荷最大,低排放情景下最小。
[Abstract]:Poyang Lake is the largest fresh water lake in China. In recent years, the water quality of the lake body has declined obviously. It is of practical significance to study the transport of total phosphorus in the Loan River basin for the protection and improvement of the water environment of Poyang Lake. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of total phosphorus concentration in the watershed were analyzed. The runoff and total phosphorus transport processes were simulated based on HYPE model, and the total phosphorus output load was estimated. The total phosphorus concentration and output load under different fertilizer application rates and rainfall conditions were investigated. Combined with MPI-ESM-LR climate model, the total phosphorus output load in the coming 15 years was predicted. The main work and conclusions of this paper are as follows: October 2010 to August 2011. TP concentration in Lean River varies significantly with seasons, the highest in spring and the worst in summer. In space, TP concentration in summer increases gradually from upstream to downstream, and there is no obvious change in other seasons. TP concentration is consistent with rainfall. The concentration of TP increased in August of July, and the concentration of TP decreased in February to April of less rainfall, and there was a positive correlation between the concentration of TP and cultivated land area and the proportion of urban and rural land area to the total area of subbasin. There was a negative correlation between the area of forest land and the proportion of grassland area to the total area of subbasin, and there was a negative correlation between TP concentration and cultivated land area. Based on meteorological and hydrological data from January 1, 1978 to December 31, 1986, the ratio of urban and rural land area and woodland area to sub-watershed area is more sensitive. The HYPE runoff model of Le'an River basin is constructed. The model achieves ideal precision in rate periodic and verification period. The daily runoff Ens coefficient and daily deterministic coefficient of six hydrologic stations are all greater than 0.80, and the maximum relative error of runoff in many years is -10.24. The daily runoff Ens coefficient and the daily deterministic coefficient of the six hydrologic stations are all greater than 0.80, except that the relative runoff error of Sandu station is 14.53%, the other stations are less than 10%, and the overall effect is better. The HYPE model was used to simulate the TP transport process in the watershed. The model performed well during the monitoring period, and the Naxi efficiency coefficient (Ens) of the three water quality monitoring sites was above 0.5. The relative error RE is 16.677.The output load of TP from October 2010 to September 2011 is estimated to be 926.98t.(4)TP concentration and output load increasing with the increase of fertilizer application rate. But the range of change is not big. TP concentration and output load are influenced by rainfall. The annual average concentration and output load of TP decreased by 35.6% and 48.4%, respectively, and the annual average concentration and annual output load increased by 37.3% and 91.0%, respectively. It is further explained that the rainfall runoff factor is the cause of non-point source phosphorus pollution. The future water quality forecast results show that: 2020-2035, The TP output load of Le'an River basin showed a fluctuating upward trend. The TP output load was the largest in the high emission scenario and the smallest in the low emission scenario.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：X52

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