發(fā)布時間：2018-03-13 10:32

  本文選題：環(huán)境經濟　切入點：碳交易　出處：《四川省社會科學院》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：本文從環(huán)境經濟學、投資經濟學、財務管理學理論出發(fā),通過對國內外研究的整理,以及對國際國內林業(yè)碳匯及碳交易發(fā)展現狀的分析,揭示出我國林業(yè)碳匯發(fā)展中存在的問題,基于四川CDM造林再造林項目的實證研究,以量化分析的方式闡釋森林外部效益內部化的可行性與林業(yè)碳匯潛在的經濟價值。本文選取四種有代表性的林業(yè)碳匯造林樹種,研究其在林業(yè)碳匯造林情境下與非林業(yè)碳匯造林情景下的經濟效益。采用異速生長方程法,長期趨勢法,并按照CDM造林再造林方法學要求,采用生物量擴展因子法進行數據分析。研究得出,在項目期同為60年的情況下,非碳匯造林各樹種的財務凈現值均為負值,而碳匯造林均為正值且明顯高于非碳匯造林情景;當項目期選取為各樹種最佳項目期時,研究樹種碳匯造林較非碳匯造林平均項目期高出16年,財務凈現值為非碳匯造林財務凈現值4.41倍。由于碳匯造林存在項目開發(fā)成本,規(guī)模越大分攤到單位面積的項目開發(fā)成本將越低,通過對不同規(guī)模下碳匯造林單位面積財務凈現值的分析,得出隨著規(guī)模的增大,面積增加引起的財務凈現值的變化逐漸減小,當項目面積在500公頃以下時財務內部收益率變化相對比較明顯,當超過500公頃后,變化相對不太明顯。從樹種來看,與傳統(tǒng)造林相似,碳匯造林情景下速生樹種經濟效益依然高于慢生樹種,但隨著項目期的增長,慢生樹種的經濟效益會逐漸增加,甚至超過速生樹種。根據研究結果,本文對林業(yè)碳匯項目樹種選擇、項目期選擇、項目規(guī)模選擇進行了優(yōu)先性分析,同時對國內外不同的項目開發(fā)標準進行了闡述,為項目開發(fā)標準的選擇提出建議,并對林業(yè)碳匯投資的注意事項以及風險進行了說明。我國尚處在林業(yè)碳匯發(fā)展初級階段,還有很多亟待解決的問題,研究認為,定期組織林業(yè)碳匯相關知識培訓將全面提高我國林業(yè)碳匯認知水平,有針對性地扶持林業(yè)碳匯咨詢機構將為我國林業(yè)碳匯的發(fā)展提供技術保障,全面規(guī)劃林業(yè)碳匯優(yōu)先發(fā)展區(qū)域是進一步推進我國林業(yè)碳匯發(fā)展的重要任務,同時,在建設碳交易現貨市場的同時我們也應開始逐步探索碳期貨市場的建設。此外,在全國碳交易市場蓬勃發(fā)展之時,四川省也應加快推進碳交易機構備案工作并初步啟動碳排放權配額交易。
[Abstract]:Based on the theories of environmental economics, investment economics and financial management, this paper analyzes the present situation of forestry carbon sinks and carbon trading in China and abroad. This paper reveals the problems existing in the development of forestry carbon sinks in China. The empirical study on afforestation and reforestation projects based on Sichuan CDM is carried out. The feasibility of the internalization of forest external benefits and the potential economic value of forest carbon sequestration were explained by quantitative analysis. Four representative forest carbon sequestration tree species were selected in this paper. The economic benefits of forest carbon sequestration and non-forestry carbon sequestration were studied. The method of allometric growth equation, long-term trend method and CDM reforestation methodology were used. Using the method of biomass expansion factor to analyze the data, it is concluded that the financial net present value of non-carbon sink afforestation tree species is negative, while the carbon sink afforestation is positive and significantly higher than that of non-carbon sink afforestation scenario under the same project period of 60 years. When the project period is the best for each tree species, the average project period of carbon sink afforestation of study tree species is 16 years higher than that of non-carbon sink afforestation, and the financial net present value is 4.41 times that of non-carbon sink afforestation. The larger the scale is, the lower the project development cost will be. By analyzing the financial NPV of carbon sink afforestation unit area under different scales, it is concluded that with the increase of scale, the change of financial NPV caused by the increase of area gradually decreases. When the project area is less than 500 hectares, the change of financial internal rate of return is relatively obvious, and when more than 500 hectares, the change is relatively less obvious. In terms of tree species, it is similar to traditional afforestation. The economic benefit of fast-growing tree species is still higher than that of slow-growing tree species in carbon sink afforestation scenarios, but with the increase of project period, the economic benefit of slow-growing tree species will gradually increase, even exceed that of fast-growing tree species. This paper analyzes the priority of tree species selection, project duration selection and project scale selection for forestry carbon sequestration projects. At the same time, it expounds the different project development standards at home and abroad, and puts forward some suggestions for the selection of project development standards. The paper also explains the matters needing attention and the risk of forestry carbon sink investment. China is still in the primary stage of forestry carbon sink development, and there are still many problems to be solved urgently. Regular organization of forestry carbon sink related knowledge training will improve the cognition level of forestry carbon sink in China, and provide technical guarantee for the development of forestry carbon sink by providing targeted support to forestry carbon sink consulting organization. It is an important task to further promote the development of forestry carbon sequestration in China by comprehensively planning the priority development area of forestry carbon sinks. At the same time, we should also begin to explore the construction of carbon futures market while building the spot market of carbon trading. At a time when the national carbon trading market is booming, Sichuan should also speed up the filing of carbon trading institutions and initially launch carbon emissions quota trading.
【學位授予單位】：四川省社會科學院
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F326.2;X196

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