本文關(guān)鍵詞： Logistic模型 CA-Markov模型 InVEST模型 情景模擬 碳儲量 生物多樣性　出處：《南京信息工程大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：當前區(qū)域土地利用模擬是LUCC近十年研究的熱點,動態(tài)模擬土地利用變化是一個相當復雜的過程,它不僅受到自然、社會、經(jīng)濟、技術(shù)條件的影響,還因其時間跨度和空間影響范圍而不同,而土地利用變化模型為我們理解土地利用變化過程和影響變化的驅(qū)動因子方面提供了重要手段。本研究主要針對目前國際上應(yīng)用比較廣泛的Logistic模型,在此基礎(chǔ)上加入空間自相關(guān)變量,應(yīng)用1985年、1995年、2005年、2015年四期土地利用數(shù)據(jù),再結(jié)合CA-Markov模型模擬預測了南京市2025年三種不同情景(自然發(fā)展情景、生態(tài)保護情景和土地優(yōu)化情景)下的土地利用發(fā)展方向；本文進一步結(jié)合InVEST模型,研究1985年、1995年、2005年、2015年四期土地利用變化下的碳儲量和生物多樣性服務(wù)功能分布和變化,以及2025年不同模擬情景下的碳儲量和生物多樣性服務(wù)功能分布情況。研究結(jié)果表明：改進后的Logistic回歸模型擬合度高于傳統(tǒng)Logistic模型,森林、草地、濕地、耕地、建設(shè)用地和未利用地的擬合優(yōu)度有了較大的提升,分別從0.7995、0.7985、0.8417、0.8399、0.8491提高到了0.8057、0.8042、0.8339、0.8681和0.8554,此外2005年和2015年CA模型精度驗證Kappa值為0.82和0.85,預測效果較好。在不同的情景設(shè)置下,土地利用存在明顯的空間差異：自然發(fā)展情景按原有速率變化,則建設(shè)用地快速發(fā)展并占用大量耕地,碳儲量降低5.06萬噸,整體生境質(zhì)量較2015年降低較多,生境退化明顯；生態(tài)保護情景下耕地轉(zhuǎn)換為建設(shè)用地的速率減緩了5%,對南京市的生態(tài)狀況轉(zhuǎn)變有極大好處,碳儲量降低3.65萬噸,是自然發(fā)展情景的72.13%,整體生境質(zhì)量較自然發(fā)展情景有所提高,生境退化較自然發(fā)展情景緩解較多；土地優(yōu)化情景兼顧發(fā)展對土地的需求,同時也注重保護生態(tài)環(huán)境,建設(shè)用地增加量為自然發(fā)展量的64%,碳儲量減少3.76萬噸,是自然發(fā)展的74.31%,整體生境質(zhì)量較自然發(fā)展情景有所提高,生境退化較自然發(fā)展情景緩解較多,但均低于生態(tài)保護情景,保證了經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和生態(tài)保護的平衡。生態(tài)保護情景和土地優(yōu)化情景對未來土地調(diào)控效果較好,可以為當?shù)赝恋赜每傮w規(guī)劃提供科學決策參考。
[Abstract]:Regional land use simulation is a hot topic in recent ten years of LUCC. Dynamic simulation of land use change is a very complex process, which is not only affected by natural, social, economic and technical conditions. It also varies according to its time span and spatial impact. The land use change model provides an important means for us to understand the process of land use change and the driving factors that affect it. This study mainly focuses on the Logistic modules which are widely used in the world at present. Type. On this basis, spatial autocorrelation variables were added to apply the land use data of 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2005. Combined with CA-Markov model, the land use development direction of Nanjing in 2025 was predicted under three different scenarios (natural development scenario, ecological protection scenario and land optimization scenario). Combined with InVEST model, this paper studies the distribution and change of carbon storage and biodiversity service function under land use change in 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2005. And the distribution of carbon storage and biodiversity service function under different simulation scenarios in 2025. The results show that:. The fitting degree of the improved Logistic regression model is higher than that of the traditional Logistic model. The goodness of fit of forest, grassland, wetland, cultivated land, construction land and unused land were improved, from 0.7995U 0.7985 to 0.84170.399, respectively. 0.8491 was increased to 0.8057 (0.8042), 0.8339( 0.8681) and 0.8554 (0.8554). In addition, on 2005 and 2015, the Kappa values of CA model were 0.82 and 0.85 respectively, and the prediction effect was better. There are obvious spatial differences in land use: if the natural development scenario changes according to the original rate, the construction land will develop rapidly and occupy a large amount of cultivated land, and the carbon storage will be reduced by 50,600 tons. The overall habitat quality decreased more than in 2015, and the habitat degradation was obvious. The rate of conversion of cultivated land to construction land has been slowed down by 5% under the ecological protection scenario, which has great benefits for the transformation of ecological situation in Nanjing. The carbon storage is reduced by 36,500 tons, which is 72.13% of the natural development scenario. The overall habitat quality is better than the natural development scenario, and the habitat degradation is more alleviated than the natural development scenario. Land optimization scenario takes into account the demand for land, but also pays attention to the protection of the ecological environment. The increase of construction land is 64 percent of the natural development, and the carbon storage is reduced by 37,600 tons. The whole habitat quality is higher than the natural development scenario, the habitat degradation is more than the natural development scenario, but lower than the ecological protection scenario. The balance between economic development and ecological protection is ensured. The ecological protection scenarios and land optimization scenarios have better effects on land regulation and control in the future and can provide a scientific decision-making reference for the overall planning of local land use.
【學位授予單位】：南京信息工程大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X176;F301.2

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