本文關(guān)鍵詞： 鉛 Source-to-Effect模型 Monte Carlo模擬 健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防護(hù)區(qū)域 健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防護(hù)距離　出處：《蘭州大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：背景：工業(yè)化和城市化的快速發(fā)展使世界各地都面臨著重金屬污染問(wèn)題,近年我國(guó)重金屬污染事件,尤其是“血鉛”超標(biāo)事件多發(fā),嚴(yán)重威脅了環(huán)境安全與人群健康。目前針對(duì)已產(chǎn)生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)后果的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)難以滿足重金屬鉛的健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范需要,應(yīng)在規(guī)劃階段從源頭預(yù)防控制鉛排放源,合理規(guī)劃布局,解決鉛污染問(wèn)題。目標(biāo)：構(gòu)建重金屬鉛的Source-to-Effect模型,預(yù)評(píng)估健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的空間分布和兒童的血鉛水平,劃定鉛排放源健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防護(hù)區(qū)域和健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防護(hù)距離。方法：基于大氣擴(kuò)散模型、土壤累積模型、暴露和個(gè)體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型、兒童血鉛預(yù)測(cè)模型四個(gè)子模型構(gòu)建Source-to-Effect模型,通過(guò)鉛排放源參數(shù)和地形、氣象條件,對(duì)重金屬鉛的遷移過(guò)程進(jìn)行模擬,考慮個(gè)體通過(guò)空氣吸入、皮膚接觸、土壤和食物攝入四個(gè)途徑,從區(qū)域角度評(píng)估鉛排放源對(duì)居民健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和兒童血鉛的影響。采用Monte Carlo模擬,確定各模型評(píng)價(jià)參數(shù)的概率分布函數(shù)(PDF),以解決不確定性問(wèn)題。通過(guò)實(shí)際案例驗(yàn)證建立的模型和擬合的參數(shù)的適應(yīng)性和實(shí)用性。結(jié)果：案例研究預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果顯示,鉛冶煉廠運(yùn)營(yíng)后對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)鼐用胥U暴露風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的貢獻(xiàn)率不足10%,各網(wǎng)格點(diǎn)健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)貢獻(xiàn)值遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)小于非致癌風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)限值1,但由于大氣、土壤現(xiàn)狀濃度較高,疊加現(xiàn)狀值后,使居民存在鉛暴露風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。通過(guò)敏感性分析確定有重要影響的敏感性因素,據(jù)此分兩種情景劃定冶煉廠健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防護(hù)距離,綜合大氣環(huán)境、衛(wèi)生防護(hù)距離和準(zhǔn)入條件規(guī)定距離的結(jié)果,繪制外包絡(luò)線,作為健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的防護(hù)區(qū)域,取最遠(yuǎn)距離作為健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防護(hù)距離,情景一健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防護(hù)距離為4000m,情景二健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防護(hù)距離為1500m。
[Abstract]:Background: with the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, heavy metal pollution is facing all parts of the world. In recent years, heavy metal pollution events, especially "blood lead", are more frequent in China. It is difficult to meet the need of health risk prevention of heavy metal lead, so it is necessary to prevent and control the source of lead emission from the source in the planning stage. Objective: to construct Source-to-Effect model of heavy metal lead and to pre-evaluate the spatial distribution of health risk and the blood lead level of children. Methods: based on atmospheric diffusion model, soil accumulation model, exposure and individual risk assessment model. Source-to-Effect model was constructed by four sub-models of children's blood lead prediction model, and the migration process of heavy metal lead was simulated by lead emission source parameters, topography and meteorological conditions. Consider four pathways: air inhalation, skin contact, soil, and food intake. The effects of lead emission sources on health risk of residents and blood lead in children were assessed from a regional perspective. Monte Carlo simulation was used to determine the probabilistic distribution function (PDF) of the evaluation parameters of each model. In order to solve the uncertainty problem. Through the actual cases to verify the model and fitting parameters of adaptability and practicability. Results: case study prediction results show. The contribution rate of lead smelter to local residents' lead exposure risk after operation is less than 10%, and the health risk contribution value of each grid point is far less than the standard limit value of non-carcinogenic risk, but because of the atmosphere, the present soil concentration is higher. After superposition of current value, the residents are exposed to lead. By sensitivity analysis, the important sensitive factors are determined. According to these two scenarios, the distance of health risk protection of smelter is determined, and the atmospheric environment is integrated. Health protection distance and access conditions of the results of the prescribed distance, draw outsourced lines, as a health risk protection area, take the furthest distance as health risk protection distance. The distance of health risk protection for scenario one and scenario two is 4000m and 1500mrespectively.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：X820.4

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本文編號(hào)：1450793