本文關(guān)鍵詞：城市人口規(guī)模對(duì)環(huán)境污染的門檻效應(yīng)研究　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：十八大首次把生態(tài)文明列入五位一體的社會(huì)主義現(xiàn)代化建設(shè)中,并首次提出美麗中國的新理念。但隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的迅速發(fā)展,環(huán)境污染問題卻成為經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展的重要瓶頸,也成為很多學(xué)者研究的重點(diǎn)。而城市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r和環(huán)境污染之間很可能會(huì)因?yàn)槌鞘腥丝谝?guī)模的不同而具有不同程度的關(guān)系,具體可表現(xiàn)為區(qū)間效應(yīng)。那么,城市人口規(guī)模是否與環(huán)境污染具有關(guān)系,是否具有一定門檻效應(yīng),即城市人口達(dá)到一定規(guī)模會(huì)加劇或減緩環(huán)境污染?具體到區(qū)域分析,如全國的東部、中部和西部地區(qū)又會(huì)有著怎樣的共同點(diǎn)和區(qū)別點(diǎn)?這些都是需要進(jìn)一步研究和探討的問題,將對(duì)我國的人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境提供一定的理論和實(shí)踐參考。本文基于環(huán)境庫茨涅茨曲線(EKC)理論,主要考慮環(huán)境污染中的工業(yè)SO2和工業(yè)廢水排放量進(jìn)行分析,在探究經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平、人口規(guī)模與環(huán)境污染關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上,通過運(yùn)用Hansen首次提出的門檻回歸模型,建立城市人口規(guī)模對(duì)環(huán)境污染的門檻效應(yīng)回歸模型,運(yùn)用2000-2012年中國286個(gè)城市數(shù)據(jù),分別從全國城市和東中西部區(qū)域分析的角度,綜合考察城市人口規(guī)模對(duì)環(huán)境污染的影響,同時(shí)探究環(huán)境污染水平是否存在人口規(guī)模的門檻效應(yīng),以及在不同的人口規(guī)模水平下影響環(huán)境污染因素的作用機(jī)制。研究結(jié)果表明,從全國城市的角度,人口規(guī)模作為影響經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的重要渠道,對(duì)環(huán)境污染有顯著門檻效應(yīng)。人口規(guī)模若處于46萬到500萬門檻區(qū)間內(nèi),經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展將會(huì)加劇環(huán)境污染,人口規(guī)模低于46萬或高于500萬,則不會(huì)加劇環(huán)境污染,且我國大部分城市還是處于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不利于環(huán)境發(fā)展的時(shí)期內(nèi)。從東中西區(qū)域分析的角度,不同區(qū)域具有不同的門檻效應(yīng)和門檻值。因此,合理調(diào)控人口規(guī)模,逐步調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和提高技術(shù)水平,協(xié)調(diào)好人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境之間的和諧發(fā)展刻不容緩。
[Abstract]:For the first time in 18, ecological civilization was included in the five-in-one socialist modernization construction, and the new concept of beautiful China was put forward for the first time. However, with the rapid development of China's economy and society. However, environmental pollution has become an important bottleneck of economic and social development. Also become the focus of many scholars. And the urban economic development and environmental pollution will probably have different degrees of relationship due to the different size of the urban population, the specific performance of the interval effect. Whether the scale of urban population is related to environmental pollution, whether it has a certain threshold effect, that is, urban population to a certain scale will aggravate or mitigate environmental pollution? Specific to the regional analysis, such as the eastern, central and western regions of the country will have what common points and differences? These problems need to be further studied and discussed, which will provide some theoretical and practical reference for the population, economy and environment of our country. This paper is based on the EKCtheory of Kutznitz Curve. Based on the analysis of industrial SO2 and industrial wastewater discharge in environmental pollution, the relationship among economic development level, population scale and environmental pollution is explored. By using the threshold regression model proposed by Hansen for the first time, the threshold effect regression model of urban population size on environmental pollution is established. The data of 286 cities in China from 2000 to 2012 are used. From the point of view of the analysis of the cities in the whole country and the east, west and west regions, this paper comprehensively investigates the impact of the urban population scale on the environmental pollution, and probes into whether there exists the threshold effect of the population scale in the level of environmental pollution. The results show that from the perspective of national cities, population size is an important channel to affect the level of economic development. If the population size is in the range of 460,000 to 5 million, the economic development will aggravate the environmental pollution, the population scale is less than 460,000 or higher than 5 million. Will not aggravate environmental pollution, and most of our cities are still in the economic development is not conducive to the development of the environment in the period. Different regions have different threshold effect and threshold value. Therefore, it is urgent to adjust the population scale rationally, adjust the industrial structure and raise the technical level step by step, and coordinate the harmonious development between population, economy and environment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：C92-05;X24

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本文編號(hào)：1367677