本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于地理加權(quán)回歸模型的中國省域交通碳減排壓力指數(shù)　出處：《中國公路學(xué)報(bào)》2016年06期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 交通工程 壓力指數(shù) 地理加權(quán)回歸模型 交通碳減排 規(guī)模、技術(shù)、結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)

【摘要】：為評價(jià)中國省域交通碳減排壓力,提供差異化的交通碳減排政策依據(jù),基于地理加權(quán)回歸模型,確定且測算了2007年和2013年中國省級區(qū)域交通行業(yè)的規(guī)模效應(yīng)、技術(shù)效應(yīng)、結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)三大驅(qū)動因子,并使用熵值法確定其權(quán)重,構(gòu)建并計(jì)算各省交通碳減排壓力指數(shù),結(jié)合自然斷點(diǎn)分級法,按區(qū)域劃分碳減排壓力指數(shù)。結(jié)果表明:中國省域交通碳減排驅(qū)動因子和壓力指數(shù)存在空間異質(zhì)性,碳減排壓力指數(shù)由2007年的自北向南逐漸遞減轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)?013年的自東北向華中、西南遞減;在政策層面上,東北地區(qū)需重點(diǎn)調(diào)整經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式、優(yōu)化運(yùn)輸結(jié)構(gòu),以降低交通碳減排結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)的正向驅(qū)動,華中地區(qū)需繼續(xù)穩(wěn)健地發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì),降低由于規(guī)模效應(yīng)帶來的交通碳排放,而西北、西南地區(qū)則需要推進(jìn)科技創(chuàng)新和技術(shù)優(yōu)化,提升技術(shù)減排效應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:For the evaluation of provincial traffic carbon emission reduction pressure Chinese, providing traffic carbon emission reduction policy on the basis of differentiation, geographically weighted regression model based on the determined and measured the scale effect, 2007 and 2013 China provincial transportation industry technical effect, structure effect of three major driving factors, and use the entropy method to determine the weight, build and calculate the the pressure of traffic carbon emission reduction index, combined with the natural breakpoint classification method based on regional carbon emission reduction pressure index. The results showed that the provincial transport carbon emissions Chinese driving factors and the pressure index of spatial heterogeneity, carbon emission reduction pressure index from 2007 from the north to the South gradually decreasing to decline from the northeast to the southwest of China, in 2013; the policy level, the Northeast should focus on the adjustment of the mode of economic growth, optimize the transport structure, in order to reduce the traffic carbon emission reduction effect of positive driving structure, central China needs to continue We must steadily develop the economy and reduce the traffic carbon emissions caused by scale effect, while the northwest and southwest regions need to promote technological innovation and technology optimization, and enhance the technology emission reduction effect.

【作者單位】： 長安大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院;德克薩斯理工大學(xué)土木與環(huán)境工程系;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(51278057) 霍英東教育基金項(xiàng)目(151075) 中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)專項(xiàng)資金項(xiàng)目(310823151006,310823160103)
【分類號】：X73
【正文快照】： 2.德克薩斯理工大學(xué)土木與環(huán)境工程系,德克薩斯盧伯克TX 79409)0引言目前,中國已成為世界工業(yè)化發(fā)展最快、規(guī)模最大的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體。根據(jù)《中國生態(tài)足跡報(bào)告(2012)》,自20世紀(jì)70年代以來,碳足跡占到中國生態(tài)足跡的54%,在2009年哥本哈根氣候大會上,中國承諾“到2020年,CO2排放相

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