本文關鍵詞：美歐中印“國家自主貢獻”目標的力度和公平性評估　出處：《中國環(huán)境科學》2016年12期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關文章： 氣候公平 累積碳排放 國家自主貢獻 減排力度和公平性

【摘要】：基于氣候公平的不同原則,采用動態(tài)的衡量指標,建立了公平分配未來碳排放空間的綜合性框架,計算了基數(shù)、平等、能力、責任和混合方案下2010~2100年全球累積碳排放配額的地區(qū)分布,并評估了美歐中印"國家自主貢獻(Intended Nationally Determined Contribution,INDC)"目標的力度,提出了各國減排目標力度應當增加的程度.結果表明:美歐中印總體的INDC力度離實現(xiàn)2℃目標仍有差距,不同方案下的排放差距為8.0~9.6Gt CO2,超出2030年2℃目標下全球排放的比例為20%~24%.在各自最為有利的方案下,中印能滿足實現(xiàn)2℃目標的公平分配方案的低限要求.而在所有方案下美歐距離實現(xiàn)2℃目標的公平分配要求均有差距,需要進一步提高力度.公平指標的動態(tài)和靜態(tài)衡量方法,以及歷史責任計量起始年的選取,對公平分配的結果影響很大.
[Abstract]:Based on different principles of climate justice, using dynamic indicators, the establishment of a comprehensive framework for equitable distribution of future emissions of space, area distribution base, equality, ability, responsibility and mixed scheme 2010~2100 global cumulative carbon emissions quotas were calculated and assessed and India "national independent contribution (Intended Nationally Determined Contribution INDC)," efforts, proposed national emission reduction targets should increase the degree of intensity. The results show that: the United States and Europe India overall INDC efforts to achieve 2 degrees from the target is still a gap between the different scenarios for 8.0~9.6Gt CO2 emissions gap, the proportion of global emissions in 2030 exceeded 2 degrees under the target for 20%~24%. in their most favorable under the program, the lower limit of India can satisfy the realization of fair allocation scheme at 2 target requirements. And in all scenarios and achieve the goal of fair distance at 2 points There is a gap between the allocation requirements and the need for further improvement. The dynamic and static measurement methods of fairness indicators and the selection of the beginning date of historical responsibility measurement have great influence on the results of fair distribution.
【作者單位】： 中國人民大學環(huán)境學院;國家應對氣候變化戰(zhàn)略研究和國際合作中心;
【基金】：中國清潔發(fā)展機制基金贈款項目“主要締約方2015協(xié)議下國家自主貢獻的公平性和力度評估”(2014094)
【分類號】：X321
【正文快照】： 2015年12月通過的《巴黎協(xié)定》進一步明確了將全球溫升控制在不超過工業(yè)化前2℃這一長期目標[1].近年來科學研究已經(jīng)確定累積碳排放是造成全球溫升的主要原因,并建立了兩者之間的近似線性關系[2-4].因此在2℃目標下,未來全球碳排放空間將受到嚴格限制.考慮到政治可行性,《巴黎，

本文編號：1341277