發(fā)布時(shí)間：2017-12-27 10:11

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：美歐中印“國(guó)家自主貢獻(xiàn)”目標(biāo)的力度和公平性評(píng)估　出處：《中國(guó)環(huán)境科學(xué)》2016年12期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 氣候公平 累積碳排放 國(guó)家自主貢獻(xiàn) 減排力度和公平性

【摘要】：基于氣候公平的不同原則,采用動(dòng)態(tài)的衡量指標(biāo),建立了公平分配未來(lái)碳排放空間的綜合性框架,計(jì)算了基數(shù)、平等、能力、責(zé)任和混合方案下2010~2100年全球累積碳排放配額的地區(qū)分布,并評(píng)估了美歐中印"國(guó)家自主貢獻(xiàn)(Intended Nationally Determined Contribution,INDC)"目標(biāo)的力度,提出了各國(guó)減排目標(biāo)力度應(yīng)當(dāng)增加的程度.結(jié)果表明:美歐中印總體的INDC力度離實(shí)現(xiàn)2℃目標(biāo)仍有差距,不同方案下的排放差距為8.0~9.6Gt CO2,超出2030年2℃目標(biāo)下全球排放的比例為20%~24%.在各自最為有利的方案下,中印能滿足實(shí)現(xiàn)2℃目標(biāo)的公平分配方案的低限要求.而在所有方案下美歐距離實(shí)現(xiàn)2℃目標(biāo)的公平分配要求均有差距,需要進(jìn)一步提高力度.公平指標(biāo)的動(dòng)態(tài)和靜態(tài)衡量方法,以及歷史責(zé)任計(jì)量起始年的選取,對(duì)公平分配的結(jié)果影響很大.
[Abstract]:Based on different principles of climate justice, using dynamic indicators, the establishment of a comprehensive framework for equitable distribution of future emissions of space, area distribution base, equality, ability, responsibility and mixed scheme 2010~2100 global cumulative carbon emissions quotas were calculated and assessed and India "national independent contribution (Intended Nationally Determined Contribution INDC)," efforts, proposed national emission reduction targets should increase the degree of intensity. The results show that: the United States and Europe India overall INDC efforts to achieve 2 degrees from the target is still a gap between the different scenarios for 8.0~9.6Gt CO2 emissions gap, the proportion of global emissions in 2030 exceeded 2 degrees under the target for 20%~24%. in their most favorable under the program, the lower limit of India can satisfy the realization of fair allocation scheme at 2 target requirements. And in all scenarios and achieve the goal of fair distance at 2 points There is a gap between the allocation requirements and the need for further improvement. The dynamic and static measurement methods of fairness indicators and the selection of the beginning date of historical responsibility measurement have great influence on the results of fair distribution.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)人民大學(xué)環(huán)境學(xué)院;國(guó)家應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化戰(zhàn)略研究和國(guó)際合作中心;
【基金】：中國(guó)清潔發(fā)展機(jī)制基金贈(zèng)款項(xiàng)目“主要締約方2015協(xié)議下國(guó)家自主貢獻(xiàn)的公平性和力度評(píng)估”(2014094)
【分類號(hào)】：X321
【正文快照】： 2015年12月通過(guò)的《巴黎協(xié)定》進(jìn)一步明確了將全球溫升控制在不超過(guò)工業(yè)化前2℃這一長(zhǎng)期目標(biāo)[1].近年來(lái)科學(xué)研究已經(jīng)確定累積碳排放是造成全球溫升的主要原因,并建立了兩者之間的近似線性關(guān)系[2-4].因此在2℃目標(biāo)下,未來(lái)全球碳排放空間將受到嚴(yán)格限制.考慮到政治可行性,《巴黎，

本文編號(hào)：1341277