發(fā)布時間：2018-11-06 16:15

【摘要】：海底電力電纜是用于海上電力傳輸?shù)闹匾绞健ｋS著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和新能源政策的推進(jìn),海底電力電纜市場得到了快速發(fā)展并且應(yīng)用越來越廣泛。相較于陸地電纜,海底電力電纜由于受到復(fù)雜海洋環(huán)境的影響,從設(shè)計、制造、施工、運(yùn)行以及維修保護(hù)階段都存在著極大的安全隱患和技術(shù)難題。一旦發(fā)生故障,不管是從經(jīng)濟(jì)方面還是社會影響,都會帶來相當(dāng)嚴(yán)重的后果。因此,對海底電力電纜系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行全方面的風(fēng)險分析具有十分重要的意義。 本文首先在大量研究相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,對海底電力電纜系統(tǒng)作了全方面的介紹。從海底電力電纜的發(fā)展開始,對海底電纜的結(jié)構(gòu)特征、敷設(shè)安裝過程以及可靠性分析方面都進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的闡述。 其次,對現(xiàn)有的風(fēng)險管理理論和風(fēng)險分析方法做了介紹。包括風(fēng)險的基本概念、風(fēng)險分析的框架和步驟、風(fēng)險的構(gòu)成要素及其關(guān)系；按照風(fēng)險分析的流程,建立了風(fēng)險管理方法體系；重點(diǎn)介紹了海底電纜的幾種風(fēng)險評估方法。 再次,通過大量海底電纜的故障統(tǒng)計和風(fēng)險因素的識別,結(jié)合海底電纜系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)以及運(yùn)行環(huán)境,構(gòu)建了以第三方破壞、內(nèi)部故障、環(huán)境影響、誤操作為主的海底電力電纜風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系。 最后,通過已構(gòu)建的海底電力電纜評價指標(biāo)體系,結(jié)合模糊數(shù)學(xué)和層次分析等數(shù)學(xué)方法建立了海底電力電纜系統(tǒng)模糊綜合評價模型,并結(jié)合具體的工程實例對模型進(jìn)行驗證,確定了該工程的風(fēng)險等級同時也證明了模型的有效性和合理性。
[Abstract]:Submarine power cable is an important method for offshore power transmission. With the development of economy and the promotion of new energy policy, submarine power cable market has been developed rapidly and applied more and more widely. Compared with terrestrial cables, submarine power cables are affected by complex marine environment, so there are great safety risks and technical problems in design, manufacture, construction, operation and maintenance and protection. Failure, both economic and social, can have serious consequences. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze the risk of submarine power cable system in all aspects. In this paper, based on a large number of related literature, the submarine power cable system is introduced in all aspects. Starting from the development of submarine power cable, the structural characteristics, installation process and reliability analysis of submarine cable are described in detail. Secondly, the existing risk management theory and risk analysis methods are introduced. It includes the basic concept of risk, the framework and steps of risk analysis, the constituent elements of risk and its relationship; according to the process of risk analysis, the risk management method system is established; several risk assessment methods of submarine cable are introduced emphatically. Thirdly, through a large number of submarine cable fault statistics and risk factors identification, combined with the submarine cable system structure and operating environment, the third party damage, internal failure, environmental impact, The risk evaluation index system of submarine power cable based on misoperation. Finally, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of submarine power cable system is established by using the established evaluation index system of submarine power cable, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of submarine power cable system is established by combining fuzzy mathematics and analytic hierarchy process, and the model is verified by concrete engineering examples. The risk grade of the project is determined and the validity and rationality of the model are also proved.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：P756.1

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本文編號：2314797