【摘要】：全球氣候變化背景下,海平面上升是一個(gè)潛在的重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn),為防范氣候?yàn)?zāi)害,應(yīng)對(duì)極端氣象海洋事件,需客觀、定量地對(duì)未來(lái)極端海平面變化進(jìn)行科學(xué)預(yù)測(cè)。為此,基于Copula函數(shù)和動(dòng)態(tài)極值分析理論,綜合考慮平均海平面變化(包括垂直陸地運(yùn)動(dòng)和基準(zhǔn)的局地變化)與潮、涌、浪等其他氣候變化的增水對(duì)極端海平面高度的影響,采用DREAM方法改進(jìn)Bayes推斷對(duì)動(dòng)態(tài)極值模型的參數(shù)空間估計(jì)問(wèn)題,提出一種新的模型對(duì)未來(lái)極端海平面高度變化進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),旨在改進(jìn)傳統(tǒng)模型存在的不確定性問(wèn)題,并運(yùn)用該模型對(duì)氣候變化背景下廈門地區(qū)未來(lái)35年的海平面變化情景進(jìn)行了模型應(yīng)用和實(shí)驗(yàn)?zāi)M。
[Abstract]:Under the background of global climate change, sea level rise is a potential major risk. In order to prevent climate disasters and deal with extreme meteorological ocean events, scientific prediction of future extreme sea level change is necessary. Therefore, based on the Copula function and the theory of dynamic extreme value analysis, the effects of mean sea level change (including vertical land movement and local variation of datum) and other climatic changes, such as tide, surge, wave, on extreme sea level height, are considered synthetically. DREAM method is used to improve the parameter space estimation of dynamic extremum model by Bayes inference, and a new model is proposed to predict the future extreme sea level height change, which aims to improve the uncertainty of the traditional model. The model is used to simulate the sea level change in Xiamen area in the next 35 years under the background of climate change.
【作者單位】： 解放軍理工大學(xué)氣象海洋學(xué)院;南京信息工程大學(xué)氣象災(zāi)害預(yù)報(bào)預(yù)警與評(píng)估協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;河北省唐山市曹妃甸工業(yè)區(qū)氣象局;
【基金】：氣象水文預(yù)先研究項(xiàng)目(407010602) 唐山市曹妃甸工業(yè)區(qū)專項(xiàng)(CQZ-2014001)
【分類號(hào)】：P731.23

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 陳子q，

本文編號(hào)：2263771