【摘要】：恩索（ENSO）是厄爾尼諾(El Nino)和南方濤動(Southern Oscillation)的總稱，它是海氣相互作用的最強信號，對氣候變化的觀測和研究有著不可替代的作用。ENSO循環(huán)對全球氣候變化有著重要影響，ENSO循環(huán)的異常會引起洪水、干旱、臺風(fēng)帶來的極端天氣現(xiàn)象發(fā)生，給人民的生命和財產(chǎn)安全帶來威脅。我國位于太平洋西海岸的東亞地區(qū)，氣候變化受ENSO循環(huán)影響顯著，我國氣候變化對太平洋地區(qū)的海陸循環(huán)異常的響應(yīng)明顯，研究ENSO事件發(fā)生對我國氣候變化的影響有著重要意義。 本文首先以1961年1月到2011年12月期間，我國范圍內(nèi)（72°E-136°E，18°N-54°N）9216（72×128）組格點的地面降水月平均數(shù)據(jù)為研究對象，通過M-K檢驗、小波變換分析等方法對其時間序列進行分析，分析結(jié)果顯示：我國降水以70年代中期為界呈現(xiàn)先減少后穩(wěn)定伴隨小幅度增加的趨勢，70年代中期為我國降水量最少點；我國降水1961年-2011年間的2-3年尺度周期性明顯，1995年之前30年尺度大周期存在但卻不顯著。EOF分析結(jié)果顯示，我國降水量變化呈現(xiàn)由西北到西南遞增，變化趨勢統(tǒng)一，地域分布明顯。 分別選擇通過海面氣壓差、海表溫度差、綜合變量指數(shù)定義的ENSO指數(shù)， SOI、Nino3.4和Nino4、MEI為研究對象，分析其時間序列，結(jié)果顯示：變化趨勢檢驗方面，SOI為持續(xù)減少，Nino3.4為先減少后穩(wěn)定，Nino4為先減少后小幅度增加，MEI為先小幅度減少后小幅度增加的趨勢；周期分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，SOI周期主要為2年，Nino3.4周期主要為2-4年，Nino4周期主要為5年，MEI周期主要為3或5年，ENSO各指數(shù)在1-6年尺度的周期都具有顯著性，且Nino3.4及Nino4長周期不明顯。 將四種ENSO指數(shù)分別與我國9216組格點月降水序列進行0-12個月尺度的延時相關(guān)分析，并記錄相關(guān)系數(shù)最大值，填回格點并繪圖。結(jié)果顯示，與我國降水序列相關(guān)系數(shù)由大到小的ENSO指數(shù)分別為Nino3.4、Nino4、MEI、SOI，其中Nino3.4和Nino4所有格點都通過了0.05水平的顯著性檢驗。經(jīng)過上述時間序列分析，并結(jié)合前人研究成果，選擇Nino3.4為ENSO代表指數(shù)，記錄延時相關(guān)性最大時延時月數(shù)并作圖。結(jié)果顯示，我國降水相對于Nino3.4響應(yīng)最大相應(yīng)延時時間分布大致可以分為西南、中部和我國大部分地區(qū)三個區(qū)域。 按照海洋尼諾指數(shù)將ENSO事件發(fā)生時海溫強度分為極弱、弱、中等、強、極強共5個等級，選擇1961年1月到2011年12月期間強度為中等強度以上冷、暖事件為研究對象，分析我國降水量在ENSO事件發(fā)生延遲響應(yīng)月份后的增減情況。在ENSO暖事件發(fā)生期間，我國降水變化主要表現(xiàn)為以秦嶺-淮河為界，在北方地區(qū)降水量多為少于常年同期降水量或降水變化量穩(wěn)定，南方地區(qū)降水量多為多于常年同期降水量。降水量變化以強度影響為主，其次為爆發(fā)時間，事件持續(xù)時間對降水變化量影響不明顯。冷事件發(fā)生期間，我國北方地區(qū)降水受影響為減少或穩(wěn)定為主，南方地區(qū)降水變化不統(tǒng)一。事件持續(xù)時間對于事件對我國降水量變化并不明顯，，事件爆發(fā)時間對于我國降水變化影響較大。降水變化幅度分析結(jié)果顯示，西北地區(qū)降水變化幅度受ENSO事件影響最大，其次分別為東北地區(qū)、華北地區(qū)、華中地區(qū)和華東地區(qū)，東南地區(qū)和西南地區(qū)受ENSO事件影響較小。
[Abstract]:ENSO is the general name of El Nino and Southern Oscillation. It is the strongest signal of air-sea interaction and plays an irreplaceable role in the observation and study of climate change. Weather phenomena threaten people's lives and property security. China is located in East Asia on the western coast of the Pacific Ocean. Climate change is significantly affected by the ENSO cycle. China's climate change has obvious response to the abnormal sea-land cycle in the Pacific. It is of great significance to study the impact of ENSO events on climate change in China.
In this paper, the monthly mean precipitation data of 9216 (72 *128) grids in China from January 1961 to December 2011 are analyzed by M-K test and wavelet transform. The results show that the precipitation in China decreases first in the mid-1970s. The precipitation in China was the lowest in the mid-1970s. The 2-3-year scale periodicity of precipitation in 1961-2011 was obvious, but the 30-year scale periodicity before 1995 was not significant. The results of EOF analysis showed that the precipitation in China increased from northwest to southwest, and the change trend was unified. The domain distribution is obvious.
The ENSO index, SOI, Nino 3.4 and Nino 4, MEI defined by sea surface pressure difference, sea surface temperature difference and comprehensive variable index were selected as the research objects. The time series analysis showed that the SOI decreased continuously, the Nino 3.4 decreased first and then stabilized, the Nino 4 decreased first and then increased slightly, and the MEI decreased slightly at first. The cycle analysis showed that the SOI cycle was mainly 2 years, the Nino 3.4 cycle was mainly 2-4 years, the Nino 4 cycle was mainly 5 years, the MEI cycle was mainly 3 or 5 years, and the ENSO indices were significant in the 1-6 year scale, and the long periods of Nino 3.4 and Nino 4 were not obvious.
The four ENSO indices were analyzed with the monthly precipitation series of 9216 grid points in China, and the maximum correlation coefficients were recorded. The results showed that the ENSO indices from large to small were Nino 3.4, Nino 4, MEI and SOI, of which Nino 3.4 and Nino 4 were all grid points. Based on the above time series analysis and previous research results, Nino 3.4 is selected as ENSO representative index to record and plot the maximum delay months. The results show that the corresponding delay time distributions with the largest response to Nino 3.4 can be roughly divided into southwest, central and China. Most of the three regions.
According to the ocean Nino index, the SST intensity at the time of ENSO event is divided into five grades: extremely weak, weak, moderate, strong and extremely strong. The cold and warm events with moderate intensity from January 1961 to December 2011 are selected as the research objects to analyze the increase and decrease of precipitation in China after the delayed response month of ENSO event. During the period, the precipitation change in China is mainly manifested as the boundary between Qinling and Huaihe River, the precipitation in the north is less than that in the same period of the year or the precipitation change is stable, and the precipitation in the south is more than that in the same period of the year. During the cold event, the precipitation in the north of China was mainly affected by decreasing or stabilizing, and the precipitation in the South was not uniform. The ENSO event has the greatest influence on the precipitation, followed by the northeast, North China, central and Eastern China, southeast and southwest China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：P732

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