本文選題：副熱帶模態(tài)水 + 北太平洋副熱帶逆流��； 參考：《中國海洋大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：副熱帶模態(tài)水在氣候變化中扮演著重要角色。為了揭示在年代際時(shí)間尺度上北太平洋副熱帶逆流和副熱帶模態(tài)水之間的對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系，并預(yù)估兩者在溫室氣體增加背景下可能的變化，本文使用來自國際耦合模式第5次比較計(jì)劃（CMIP5）的系列氣候模擬結(jié)果和預(yù)估試驗(yàn)結(jié)果，分析了北太平洋副熱帶模態(tài)水和副熱帶逆流的年代際自然變化及其對(duì)全球變暖的響應(yīng)，提出了副熱帶逆流對(duì)氣候變化的可能影響。通過模式結(jié)果與觀測(cè)資料的對(duì)比，指出了目前氣候模式對(duì)北太平洋副熱帶逆流和副熱帶模態(tài)水模擬中存在的問題。主要取得以下創(chuàng)新性成果： 1.發(fā)現(xiàn)了代表北太平洋副熱帶逆流的多年代際自然變化的主要信號(hào)，該信號(hào)可以用北太平洋副熱帶中部海區(qū)(170°E-130°W,15-35°N)的海平面異常EOF第一模來表示，，其變化周期約為50年；揭示了控制副熱帶逆流年代際變化的主要機(jī)制是在黑潮延伸體海域形成的副熱帶模態(tài)水的年代際變化：副熱帶模態(tài)水形成多（少）則副熱帶逆流強(qiáng)（弱）；提出了副熱帶逆流變化導(dǎo)致的混合層熱平流效應(yīng)變化對(duì)北太平洋SST的空間分布有一定的影響。 2.揭示了全球變暖背景下由于海洋上層層結(jié)加強(qiáng)，黑潮延伸體海域冬季混合層變淺，潛沉率減少了100m yr-1,副熱帶模態(tài)水核心密度變小約0.3kg m-3，厚度減少了150m,導(dǎo)致副熱帶逆流減弱了4cm/s。副熱帶逆流及其熱平流效應(yīng)的減弱進(jìn)一步使副熱帶逆流所在海域海表溫度的升溫比周圍海域要少近0.5°C，有利于北太平洋副熱帶海域海表溫度對(duì)全球變暖響應(yīng)的空間分布的非均勻性。發(fā)現(xiàn)全球變暖后，副熱帶逆流的年代際自然變化周期變小，振幅減弱。 3.依據(jù)17個(gè)CMIP5模式的情景實(shí)驗(yàn)，證實(shí)了副熱帶模態(tài)水和副熱帶逆流在溫室氣體持續(xù)增長和達(dá)到穩(wěn)定兩個(gè)階段中的變化趨勢(shì)不同：在溫室氣體濃度持續(xù)增長階段，副熱帶模態(tài)水和副熱帶逆流快速減弱；而當(dāng)溫室氣體濃度穩(wěn)定后，副熱帶模態(tài)水和副熱帶逆流則出現(xiàn)緩慢變強(qiáng)的現(xiàn)象，后者與次表層海洋（300-600米）在該階段增暖有關(guān)。 4.將氣候模式結(jié)果與觀測(cè)資料相比發(fā)現(xiàn)，氣候模式中由于海洋模式對(duì)海洋渦旋模擬水平較低，副熱帶模態(tài)水形成過多且耗散弱，導(dǎo)致氣候模式中的副熱帶逆流強(qiáng)度也偏強(qiáng)。通過渦分辨率海洋模式結(jié)果與氣候模式結(jié)果的比對(duì)，發(fā)現(xiàn)海洋渦旋對(duì)副熱帶模態(tài)水潛沉和耗散都會(huì)有重要影響。
[Abstract]:Subtropical modal water plays an important role in climate change. In order to reveal the relationship between Subtropical Countercurrent and Subtropical Mode Water in the North Pacific, and to predict possible changes in the greenhouse gas background, this paper uses the series of the international coupling model fifth comparison plan (CMIP5) series. On the basis of the results of climate simulation and prediction, the interdecadal natural changes of subtropical and Subtropical Countercurrent in the North Pacific and their response to global warming are analyzed. The possible effects of Subtropical Countercurrent on climate change are proposed. By comparing the model results with the observed data, the current climate model has been pointed out for the northern Pacific subheat. The main problems in water simulation with counterflow and subtropical modes are as follows:
1. the main signal of the intergenerational natural change representing the Subtropical Countercurrent in the North Pacific is found. The signal can be expressed as the first model of the sea level anomaly EOF of the subtropical central region of the North Pacific (170 E-130 degrees, 15-35 degrees N), and its variation period is about 50 years, and the main mechanism of Interdecadal Change of the controlled Subtropical Countercurrent is revealed. The interdecadal change of the subtropical mode water formed by the Kuroshio extension sea area: the subtropical mode water is more (less) and the Subtropical Countercurrent is strong (weak). It is suggested that the thermal advection effect of the mixed layer caused by the Subtropical Countercurrent change has a certain effect on the spatial distribution of the SST in the North Pacific.
2. revealed that under the background of global warming, due to the strengthening of the upper layer of ocean layer, the winter mixed layer of the Kuroshio extension area became shallow, the submersible rate reduced 100m yr-1, the subtropical modal water core density decreased about 0.3KG M-3, the thickness reduced 150m, and the Subtropical Countercurrent weakened the 4cm/s. vice heat zone countercurrent and the weakening of the thermal advection effect. The temperature of the sea surface temperature in the sea area is less than 0.5 C less than that of the surrounding sea area, which is beneficial to the heterogeneity of the spatial distribution of the response of the sea surface temperature to the global warming in the subtropical area of the North Pacific.
3. according to the scenario experiments of 17 CMIP5 models, it is proved that the variation trend of Subtropical Mode Water and Subtropical Countercurrent in the two stages of greenhouse gas growth and stability is: the Subtropical Mode Water and Subtropical Countercurrent decrease rapidly in the continuous growth stage of the greenhouse gas concentration, while the secondary heat is stable and the secondary heat decreases. With the modal water and the Subtropical Countercurrent, there is a phenomenon of slow becoming stronger, which is related to the subsurface ocean (300-600 m) in this stage of warming.
4. comparing the results of the climate model with the observed data, it is found that in the climate model, the simulation level of the ocean vortex is low, the subtropical mode water is too much and the dissipation is weak, and the Subtropical Countercurrent intensity in the climate model is also strong. Rotation has an important influence on subtropical water potential and dissipation.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：P731.2;P467

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