本文選題：海洋生態(tài)承載力　切入點(diǎn)：系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型　出處：《海洋環(huán)境科學(xué)》2017年04期

【摘要】：本文以惠州市為例,構(gòu)建了海洋生態(tài)承載力評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,分為壓力類、支持力類和區(qū)域交流類3個(gè)目標(biāo)層,包含人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、環(huán)境污染與資源利用、資源供給能力、環(huán)境納污能力、人類社會(huì)支持能力、產(chǎn)品交換等7個(gè)準(zhǔn)則層。運(yùn)用狀態(tài)空間模型對(duì)惠州市2004~2013年10 a間的海洋生態(tài)承載力狀況進(jìn)行定量評(píng)價(jià)。結(jié)果顯示:惠州市海洋生態(tài)承載力呈現(xiàn)波動(dòng)變化,部分年份出現(xiàn)超載情況。2004~2008年,環(huán)境污染與資源利用是海洋生態(tài)系統(tǒng)主要的壓力,2009年開始,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展成為主要壓力。支持力水平總體平穩(wěn),且不斷改善。利用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型預(yù)測(cè)在現(xiàn)有發(fā)展模式下,由于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)過快,廢水排放量和固廢產(chǎn)生量增加,海洋生態(tài)承載力指數(shù)將逐年上升,2018~2020年將出現(xiàn)超載現(xiàn)象,為確保海洋生態(tài)承載力在可載范圍內(nèi),惠州市需加快城市化進(jìn)程,采用集約化增長(zhǎng)方式,降低經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度,提高污染物處理率。
[Abstract]:Taking Huizhou City as an example, this paper constructs an evaluation index system of marine ecological carrying capacity, which is divided into three target layers: pressure, support and regional communication, including population, economic development, environmental pollution and resource utilization, resource supply capacity.The environment absorbs the pollution ability, the human society supports the ability, the product exchange and so on 7 criterion layer.The state space model was used to quantitatively evaluate the marine ecological carrying capacity of Huizhou during 2004-2013.The results show that the marine ecological carrying capacity of Huizhou city fluctuates, and overloading occurs in some years from 2004 to 2008. Environmental pollution and resource utilization are the main pressures of marine ecosystem. Since 2009, economic development has become the main pressure.The level of support is stable and constantly improving.Using the system dynamics model, it is predicted that under the existing development model, the marine ecological carrying capacity index will increase year by year because the economic growth is too fast, the amount of wastewater discharge and solid waste production will increase, and the marine ecological carrying capacity index will appear the phenomenon of overload from 2018 to 2020.In order to ensure that the marine ecological carrying capacity is within the range of carrying capacity, Huizhou should speed up the urbanization process, adopt intensive growth mode, reduce the economic growth rate and improve the disposal rate of pollutants.
【作者單位】： 中山大學(xué)環(huán)境科學(xué)與工程學(xué)院;
【基金】：廣東省廳局級(jí)項(xiàng)目“廣東省海洋生態(tài)文明示范區(qū)建設(shè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)”(粵海漁函【2013】855號(hào))
【分類號(hào)】：X55;X826

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