本文選題：氣候模式　切入點：集合調整Kalman濾波　出處：《國家海洋局第一海洋研究所》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：氣候變化一直備受國際關注。盡管大部分氣候系統(tǒng)模式已經具備全球變化模擬能力，但仍然存在氣候漂移、雙赤道輻合帶、系統(tǒng)誤差等問題。充分利用各種觀測數據，建立氣候模式同化系統(tǒng)也是改善和提高氣候模式模擬和預測的有效途徑之一。針對氣候模式開展同化研究具有較為實際的嘗試價值，對提高氣候模式的預報水平具有重要意義。 本文基于國家海洋局第一海洋研究所發(fā)展的氣候系統(tǒng)模式(FIO-ESM)，利用集合調整Kalman濾波方法，采用衛(wèi)星高度計觀測海面高度異常(SLA)和衛(wèi)星觀測海面溫度(SST)兩類數據，開展了海洋衛(wèi)星資料同化實驗，并分析了實驗結果。本研究共設計了5組數值實驗，包括1組不含數據同化的控制實驗和4組同化實驗�？刂茖嶒炗蛇\行了一組模式，分別從不同的初始場開始積分1年；同化實驗與控制實驗相似，但在積分過程中加入海洋衛(wèi)星觀測數據不斷調整。前2組同化實驗分別對SLA和SST數據進行同化，后2組實驗則同時同化SLA和SST兩種數據，但兩種數據同化順序不同。本文利用歷史客觀分析數據EN3和兩套降水數據與數值實驗結果進行對比分析，，分析結果均表明：數據同化能夠顯著改善FIO-ESM中海洋分量的模擬結果。4組同化實驗的同化效果在時空上分布特征不同。單獨同化SLA或SST數據的同化實驗結果表明兩種數據對同化結果的影響深度不同，SST改善效果在表層附近較大，而SLA則在次表層最大。聯(lián)合SLA和SST同化的兩組實驗結果均比單獨同化一類數據的效果更佳；數據同化的先后順序對同化結果具有一定的影響，但并不顯著，先同化SLA的結果略優(yōu)。SLA和SST數據的觀測信息反映的物理過程分別是整層水柱的變化和近表層海洋熱量變化，數據物理屬性的不同是造成數據同化效果差異的主要原因。同化實驗對年平均降水分布有較顯著的改善；在熱帶區(qū)域，海洋衛(wèi)星資料同化有效抑制了氣候模式中常見的雙赤道輻合帶問題，降低了赤道以南的降水量峰值，赤道北側的降水峰值高于南側，與觀測結果一致；同化實驗對低緯度降水強度改善最大，中緯度次之，高緯度改善相對較小。
[Abstract]:Climate change has been the focus of international attention.Although most climate system models already have the ability to simulate global change, there are still some problems such as climate drift, double equatorial convergence zone, system error and so on.It is also one of the effective ways to improve and improve the simulation and prediction of climate model by making full use of all kinds of observational data and establishing a climate model assimilation system.The study of assimilation based on climate model has practical value and is of great significance to improve the prediction level of climate model.Based on the climate system model FIO-ESM developed by the first Oceanographic Research Institute of the State Oceanic Administration, two types of data, SLAs and SSTs, are used to observe sea surface height anomalies by using a satellite altimeter and a satellite observation sea surface temperature (SST), using a set adjusted Kalman filtering method.The experiment of ocean satellite data assimilation is carried out and the experimental results are analyzed.In this study, five groups of numerical experiments were designed, including one control experiment without data assimilation and four assimilation experiments.The control experiment is composed of a set of models which are integrated from different initial fields for one year respectively. The assimilation experiment is similar to the control experiment but the ocean satellite observation data are continuously adjusted in the integration process.The first two groups of assimilation experiments assimilate SLA and SST data respectively, while the latter two groups assimilate both SLA and SST data simultaneously, but the order of assimilation between the two groups is different.In this paper, the historical objective analysis data EN3 and two sets of precipitation data are compared with the results of numerical experiments.The results show that data assimilation can significantly improve the simulation of ocean component in FIO-ESM. 4 groups of assimilation experiments have different spatial and temporal distribution characteristics.The results of the assimilation experiments of SLA or SST data alone showed that the effect of the two data on the assimilation results was different. The improvement effect of the two data on the assimilation results was greater near the surface layer, while SLA was the largest in the subsurface layer.The results of two groups of data assimilation combined with SLA and SST were better than that of single assimilation, the order of data assimilation had a certain influence on the assimilation results, but it was not significant.The results of assimilation of SLA are superior. SLA and SST data reflect the physical process of whole water column and ocean heat change respectively. The difference of physical attributes of data is the main reason for the difference of data assimilation effect.Assimilation experiments have a significant improvement on the annual average precipitation distribution, and in the tropical region, the assimilation of ocean satellite data effectively restrains the problems of the double equatorial convergence zone common in the climate model, and reduces the precipitation peak south of the equator.The peak value of precipitation in the northern side of the equator is higher than that in the south, which is consistent with the observed results, and the assimilation experiment shows that the intensity of precipitation in the low latitude is the greatest, followed by the middle latitude, and the high latitude is relatively small.
【學位授予單位】：國家海洋局第一海洋研究所
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：P732.4

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