本文選題：近千年　切入點：ENSO　出處：《中國科學(xué):地球科學(xué)》2016年05期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：全球增溫在最近10余年是否停滯這個問題,引起了包括IPCC的廣大氣候研究科學(xué)共同體的關(guān)注.一些作者將停滯歸因于氣候系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部變動即海氣環(huán)流的重組,由此對近千年氣候變化的環(huán)流背景重建提出了更高要求.然而,綜觀對近千年海洋-大氣環(huán)流變化的分析及其與區(qū)域氣候格局關(guān)系的結(jié)論,各家眾說紛紜,以致矛盾重重,給區(qū)域乃至全球氣候變化認(rèn)識帶來很大的不確定性.另一方面,近10年來高精度U-Th定年的石筍氧同位素比值(δ~(18)O)序列為中晚更新世古氣候研究提供了較為精確的年代框架,其間中國作者無一例外將中國石筍δ~(18)O作夏季風(fēng)指標(biāo)解釋,這種解釋反映在氣候?qū)W家的應(yīng)用和模型中就成了降水要素.但事實是,所有這些記錄在低頻趨勢變化上具有很大的共同性,而多數(shù)序列不能被器測降水記錄所校準(zhǔn),這樣就更增加了中國區(qū)域乃至全球氣候研究架構(gòu)的不確定性.因此,盡早厘清矛盾的由來,并降低研究中的不確定性,是當(dāng)今氣候科學(xué)必須做的一件事情.本文在分析證明中國季風(fēng)區(qū)石筍δ~(18)O意義的基礎(chǔ)上,嘗試提出一個新的環(huán)流代用指標(biāo):集成中國石筍δ~(18)O序列重建近千年熱帶太平洋緯向海溫梯度即大尺度ENSO態(tài),進(jìn)而推測現(xiàn)代與中世紀(jì)雖然同為暖期,卻出現(xiàn)了不同的環(huán)流重組,這個推論可以得到更長的末次盛冰期以來記錄的支持.換言之,中國石筍δ~(18)O低頻趨勢大區(qū)域一致的歸因分析表明,ENSO態(tài)從不同時間尺度(從年際到百年以至更長尺度)控制了中國季風(fēng)區(qū)氣候變化,而其中重要的環(huán)流橋梁是西太副高,即西太副高本身除了年際、年代際變化以外,還具有更長時間尺度的環(huán)流模態(tài).比如,我們可以討論西太副高在整個全新世即半個歲差的變化.這些討論也許不僅僅對于古氣候,而且對于現(xiàn)代氣候研究也不無意義.
[Abstract]:Global warming in the last 10 years is stagnant this problem, including the cause of the IPCC of the majority of the scientific community on climate research. Some authors will stagnate due to the internal climate system that changes in ocean atmosphere circulation restructuring, put forward higher requirements on the climate changes during the last millennium circulation background reconstruction. However, the analysis of the past the Millennium ocean atmospheric circulation changes and the conclusions, and the relationship between the regional climate pattern that is full of contradictions, Public opinions are divergent., brought great uncertainty to the regional and global climate change. On the other hand, stalagmite oxygen isotope ratios in recent 10 years, high precision of U-Th dating (8 ~ (18) O sequence) provides a more accurate chronological framework for late Pleistocene paleoclimate studies, which the author China without exception will Chinese 8 ~ (18) O stalagmite explain summer monsoon index, this interpretation is reflected in the climate scientists The application and model in the precipitation factors. But the fact is that all of these records have great changes on the common trend in low frequency, while most sequences cannot be measured by the rainfall records of calibration, thus increased the uncertainty of Chinese regional and global climate research framework. Therefore, as soon as possible to clarify the origin of contradiction in the study, and reduce uncertainty, is a thing of today's climate science must be done in this article. The analysis shows that China monsoon stalagmite Delta (18) ~ O based on the significance, try to put forward a new index circulation: Integrated Chinese alternative stalagmite ~ (18) O delta reconstruction sequence of nearly a thousand years the tropical Pacific SST zonal gradient of large scale ENSO state, and that although the same as the modern and medieval warm period, there are different circulation recombination, this corollary can get longer since the last glacial maximum record support. In other words, Chinese A ~ (18) O Delta regional low-frequency trend consistent attribution analysis showed that the ENSO state from different time scales (from interannual to 100 years and even longer scale) control Chinese monsoon climate change, which is an important bridge of circulation of WPSH, namely SHWP itself apart from the interannual, interdecadal changes outside also, circulation mode has a longer time scale. For example, we can discuss the SHWP throughout the Holocene is the change in half. These may not discuss precession for the ancient climate, but also has the significance for modern climate research.

【作者單位】： 中國科學(xué)院新生代地質(zhì)與環(huán)境重點實驗室 中國科學(xué)院地質(zhì)與地球物理研究所;
【基金】：中國科學(xué)院戰(zhàn)略性先導(dǎo)科技專項項目(編號:XDA05080501) 國家重點基礎(chǔ)研究發(fā)展計劃項目(編號:2010CB950101) 國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(批準(zhǔn)號:41030103) 國家科技基礎(chǔ)性工作專項項目(編號:2011FY120300)資助
【分類號】：P434;P732

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