本文選題：上層海洋熱含量　切入點：太平洋　出處：《海洋學(xué)報》2017年11期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：氣候變暖背景下,全球平均海洋變暖和海平面上升顯著,為人類社會的可持續(xù)發(fā)展帶來巨大挑戰(zhàn)。上層海洋熱力狀況是海平面變化的主導(dǎo)因子之一。本文圍繞"21世紀(jì)海上絲綢之路"途經(jīng)海區(qū)(文中簡稱為絲路海區(qū))上層海洋熱含量異常的區(qū)域性時空特征,分析探討了絲路海區(qū)熱比容海平面異常的時空變化、演變特征及可能影響,以期為"21世紀(jì)海上絲綢之路"海洋環(huán)境安全保障提供服務(wù)支撐。結(jié)果表明,自20世紀(jì)70年代中后期,絲路海區(qū)上層(0~700m)海洋已明顯變暖,尤其20世紀(jì)90年代中后期增暖幅度顯著加大。近60年來,在絲路海區(qū)熱帶海洋中,西太平洋的北赤道流區(qū)及以北海域、東海黑潮流域以及南海北部和南部海區(qū)、阿拉伯海西北部海域、馬來西亞西北部海域及南印度洋部分海域具有長期增暖趨勢。熱帶西太平洋暖池區(qū)整體增暖不明顯,主要與印度洋中部海域呈反位相變化,且明顯受到季節(jié)和年際變化的調(diào)制。長江口附近沿岸、南海北部沿岸、中南半島南部沿岸以及阿拉伯海西北部沿岸的近岸海域長期增暖明顯,自20世紀(jì)90年代中后期,中南半島東部和西部沿海、澳大利亞西部沿海以及我國東南沿海熱比容海平面上升明顯。近岸熱比容海平面的季節(jié)演變對沿海地區(qū)社會和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展會造成一定影響。此外,東亞夏季風(fēng)與東海、黃海和渤海熱比容海平面的上升顯著相關(guān),同時,ENSO、太平洋年代際振蕩和印度洋偶極子的發(fā)生也均與我國東南沿海和印度洋西部沿海熱比容海平面上升明顯關(guān)聯(lián)。特別是,氣候變暖情形下,各種區(qū)域性致災(zāi)因子和氣候變率的協(xié)同影響會對絲路海區(qū)海岸帶和沿海地區(qū)的防災(zāi)減災(zāi)與社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展帶來較大挑戰(zhàn),開展海岸帶和沿海地區(qū)全球變化綜合風(fēng)險研究成為當(dāng)前首要任務(wù)。
[Abstract]:In the context of global warming, the global average ocean warming and sea level rise are significant. It brings great challenge to the sustainable development of human society. The thermal state of the upper ocean is one of the leading factors of sea level change. This paper revolves around the "sea silk road" passing through the sea area (referred to as the "silk road sea area") in 21th century. The regional temporal and spatial characteristics of the anomalous thermal content in the ocean layer, The temporal and spatial variations, evolution characteristics and possible effects of the sea level anomaly of heat specific capacity in the Silk Road area are analyzed and discussed in order to provide service support for the marine environmental safety and security of the "21th century Maritime Silk Road". The results show that, since the middle and later period of 1970s, The upper layer of the Silk Road area has become warmer, especially in the middle and late period of 1990s. In the past 60 years, in the tropical ocean of the Silk Road area, the northern equatorial current of the western Pacific Ocean and the north sea area have been observed. The Kuroshio basin in the East China Sea, the northern and southern sea areas of the South China Sea, the northern Arabian Hercynian waters, the northwest waters of Malaysia and some parts of the southern Indian Ocean have a long-term warming trend. It is mainly opposite to the central Indian Ocean and is obviously modulated by seasonal and interannual variations. The Yangtze River Estuary, the northern coast of the South China Sea, the Yangtze River Estuary, the northern coast of the South China Sea, The coastal waters along the southern coast of the Indochina Peninsula and the northwest coast of the Arabian Sea have increased significantly over a long period of time. Since the middle and late 1990s, the eastern and western coasts of the Indochina Peninsula, The sea level rise is obvious along the west coast of Australia and the southeast coast of China. The seasonal evolution of coastal heat specific capacity sea level will have a certain impact on the social and economic development of coastal areas. In addition, the East Asian Summer Monsoon and the East China Sea, There is a significant correlation between Huang Hai and the sea level rise in the specific heat capacity of the Bohai Sea. Meanwhile, ENSO, the Pacific Ocean Interdecadal oscillation and the occurrence of the Indian Ocean dipole are all significantly related to the sea level rise in the southeast coast of China and the western coast of the Indian Ocean. In the case of climate warming, the synergistic effects of various regional disaster factors and climate change rates will bring great challenges to the coastal zone and coastal area disaster prevention and mitigation and social and economic development in the Silk Road area. It is the most important task to study the comprehensive risk of global change in coastal zone and coastal area.
【作者單位】： 國家海洋局第三海洋研究所國家海洋局海洋-大氣化學(xué)與全球變化重點實驗室;
【基金】：國家重點研發(fā)計劃“全球變化及應(yīng)對”重點專項(2017YFA0604901) 中國清潔發(fā)展機制基金項目(2014112) 福建省自然科學(xué)基金面上項目(2017J01076)
【分類號】：P731

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