本文關(guān)鍵詞： 季節(jié)內(nèi)振蕩 MJO ENSO 大西洋海溫　出處：《云南大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：本文使用了CPC提供的MJO指數(shù)資料、澳大利亞氣象臺(tái)提供的RMM指數(shù)資料、NECP再分析資料(包括風(fēng)場(chǎng)、溫壓場(chǎng)等)、NOAA提供的GODAS次表層海溫資料、CMAP降水資料、全國(guó)776站點(diǎn)降水資料等數(shù)據(jù)。分析了MJO持續(xù)異常的周期特征和環(huán)流特征,定義出描述MJO持續(xù)異常特征的Iip指數(shù)；在發(fā)現(xiàn)MJO持續(xù)異常與ENSO極強(qiáng)相關(guān)關(guān)系的同時(shí),通過個(gè)例年分析和合成分析探討了MJO持續(xù)異常激發(fā)太平洋海溫異常增強(qiáng)的內(nèi)在機(jī)制：對(duì)MJO持續(xù)異常與前期海溫之間存在的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了討論,提出了夏季MJO持續(xù)異常特征發(fā)生的主要原因。結(jié)果表明,(1)我們發(fā)現(xiàn)夏季MJO持續(xù)異常具有非常顯著的特征,即在赤道太平洋持續(xù)活躍或在赤道印度洋持續(xù)活躍。在這兩種情況下,MJO的東傳停滯,活躍中心持續(xù)出現(xiàn)在太平洋或印度洋。持續(xù)異常情況下的MJO振蕩周期也出現(xiàn)變化,表現(xiàn)為周期縮短或變?nèi)�。我們由此定義出Iip指數(shù)來(lái)描述6-8月MJO在印度洋或者太平洋的這種異常活躍情況。(2)我們發(fā)現(xiàn)夏季MJO持續(xù)異常會(huì)造成同期環(huán)流場(chǎng)的顯著異常：當(dāng)MJO在印度洋持續(xù)活躍的時(shí)候太平洋的MJO活動(dòng)則是持續(xù)偏弱；而MJO在太平洋活躍的時(shí)候印度洋的MJO活動(dòng)則持續(xù)偏弱。MJO的持續(xù)異常會(huì)造成大氣環(huán)流的顯著改變。太平洋MJO持續(xù)異常活躍時(shí)低緯沃克環(huán)流減弱,西太平洋哈德來(lái)環(huán)流增強(qiáng),西太平洋副高位置偏北。與此相配合,OLR的活躍區(qū)和200hPa速度勢(shì)輻散區(qū)位于赤道西太平洋160°E-160°W區(qū)域,熱帶海洋性大陸以及整個(gè)赤道印度洋為對(duì)流抑制區(qū)。赤道印度洋MJO持續(xù)異�；钴S時(shí)大氣環(huán)流情況相反。(3)在MJO持續(xù)異常情況下,夏季環(huán)流形勢(shì)的異常導(dǎo)致了季風(fēng)和降雨的差異。Iip高值年夏季索馬里急流長(zhǎng)期被北風(fēng)距平控制,熱帶印度洋季風(fēng)偏弱,導(dǎo)致了相應(yīng)區(qū)域的降水偏少；而110°E越赤道南風(fēng)氣流與西太平洋西風(fēng)共同加強(qiáng)了熱帶太平洋季風(fēng),使得熱帶西太平洋區(qū)域降水偏多。反之Iip低值年索馬里急流偏強(qiáng),夏季熱帶印度季風(fēng)較強(qiáng),相應(yīng)熱帶地區(qū)降雨偏多,且影響副熱帶地區(qū)降雨也偏多；而熱帶西太平洋季風(fēng)較弱,熱帶西太平洋降水偏少。(4)夏季的MJO的持續(xù)異常強(qiáng)度和秋冬季節(jié)的赤道東太平洋海溫具有顯著相關(guān),由此,我們可以將MJO的持續(xù)異常作為ENSO發(fā)生與否的預(yù)測(cè)信號(hào)。如果夏季MJO在太平洋異�；钴S持續(xù),則可促進(jìn)冬季El Nino事件的形成；反之,若夏季MJO在印度洋持續(xù)活躍,而在西太平洋MJO異常不活躍,則可促進(jìn)冬季La Nina事件的形成。這能為相關(guān)的短期氣候預(yù)測(cè)業(yè)務(wù)提供前期預(yù)測(cè)依據(jù)。(5)MJO影響ENSO發(fā)生過程的內(nèi)在機(jī)制如下：當(dāng)夏季MJO在太平洋持續(xù)異常時(shí),熱帶對(duì)流區(qū)持續(xù)在太平洋出現(xiàn),導(dǎo)致赤道沃克環(huán)流的減弱；熱帶太平洋低層為西風(fēng)控制,產(chǎn)生了海表面風(fēng)應(yīng)力正距平持續(xù)。正的風(fēng)應(yīng)力異常激發(fā)出海洋暖性Kelvin波,將次表層暖海水從西太平洋帶往東太平洋,導(dǎo)致了秋冬季節(jié)熱帶東太平洋海溫偏暖。最終暖海水在東太平洋的堆積,促進(jìn)了El Nino事件的形成。當(dāng)夏季MJO在印度洋持續(xù)異常,熱帶對(duì)流區(qū)持續(xù)在熱帶印度洋東部出現(xiàn),導(dǎo)致赤道太平洋沃克環(huán)流的增強(qiáng)；熱帶太平洋低層為東風(fēng)控制,產(chǎn)生了海表面風(fēng)應(yīng)力負(fù)距平持續(xù)。負(fù)的風(fēng)應(yīng)力異常激發(fā)出海洋冷性Kelvin波,將次表層冷海水從西太平洋帶往東太平洋,導(dǎo)致了秋冬季節(jié)熱帶東太平洋海溫偏冷。最終冷海水在東太平洋的堆積,促進(jìn)了La Nina事件的形成。(6)在討論了春季大西洋海溫異常與夏季MJO持續(xù)異常之間的關(guān)系后,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)：春季大西洋海溫偏高會(huì)導(dǎo)致夏季MJO在印度洋持續(xù)異常,而春季大西洋海溫偏低則會(huì)導(dǎo)致夏季MJO在太平洋持續(xù)異常。之后提出了春季大西洋海溫影響夏季MJO持續(xù)異�？赡艿臋C(jī)制。這種海氣相互作用的影響可能有兩種路徑：一種是通過海溫激發(fā)出的氣旋、反氣旋,影響了赤道垂直環(huán)流。這種環(huán)流形勢(shì)在夏季造成了沃克環(huán)流的加強(qiáng)或減弱,使得赤道的異常上升氣流出現(xiàn)在印度洋或東太平洋地區(qū)。另一種路徑是北大西洋的三極型海溫可能會(huì)激發(fā)出北半球的CGT波列,影響印度洋地區(qū)對(duì)流活動(dòng)。(7)我們的研究發(fā)現(xiàn),春季熱帶大西洋海面溫度的異常首先影響夏季MMJO的持續(xù)異常,導(dǎo)致了夏季MJO在西太平洋的異�；钴S／不活躍,進(jìn)一步削弱／增強(qiáng)了太平洋上空沃克環(huán)流,使得低層異常西風(fēng)／東風(fēng)顯著出現(xiàn),進(jìn)而產(chǎn)生向東／向西的風(fēng)應(yīng)力異常,激發(fā)東、西太平洋次表層水團(tuán)反向趨勢(shì)的溫度變化,最終導(dǎo)致赤道太平洋東部SST異常偏暖／偏冷,對(duì)秋冬季節(jié)ENSO的形成產(chǎn)生影響。因此,春季大西洋關(guān)鍵區(qū)海溫異常可以作為秋冬ENSO發(fā)生的判斷依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:This paper uses the MJO index data provided by CPC, the RMM index data Australia weather stations, NECP reanalysis data (including wind field, temperature field etc.), NOAA provides GODAS subsurface temperature data, precipitation data of CMAP, the 776 station precipitation data. Analysis of the periodic characteristics and circulation characteristics of abnormal MJO the definition of MJO Iip described the persistent anomalous features found in the index; the correlation between MJO and ENSO abnormal strong at the same time, through the example of years analysis and composite analysis, discusses the inherent mechanism of MJO anomaly excited Pacific SST anomaly enhancement: the relationship between MJO and abnormal SST are discussed, the main the reason of summer MJO sustained abnormal characteristics occurred is presented. The results show that (1) we found that the summer MJO has very significant characteristics of persistent anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, which continued to be active or In the equatorial India ocean continued to be active. In these two cases, MJO eastward stagnation, active center continues to appear in the Pacific and India ocean. The MJO oscillation cycle lasts under abnormal conditions also change, performance for the period shortened or weak. Thus we define the Iip index to describe this 6-8 month MJO in India the Pacific Ocean or unusually active. (2) we found that MJO can cause persistent anomalies of summer period circulation significantly abnormal: when MJO in India continued to be active in the Pacific Ocean when MJO activity is significantly changed and continued weak; persistent anomalies will cause the atmospheric circulation in the Pacific MJO active when India ocean MJO continues to weak.MJO. Pacific MJO sustained abnormal active Walker low latitude circulation weakened, the Western Pacific Hadley circulation increased, the Western Pacific subtropical high northward. Matched with the OLR, the active region And the 200hPa velocity potential divergence zone is located in the western equatorial Pacific 160 degrees E-160 degrees W region, tropical marine, and the equatorial India ocean for convective inhibition zone. Equatorial India ocean MJO continued active atmospheric circulation on the contrary. (3) in MJO abnormal condition, the summer circulation anomalies lead to the difference of the monsoon and the high.Iip value of rainfall in summer Somali jet has long been the north wind anomaly control, tropical India Ocean monsoon is weak, resulting in the corresponding regional rainfall; and 110 degrees E the equator and the Western Pacific westerly to strengthen the tropical Pacific monsoon, the tropical western Pacific region more precipitation. Whereas the low Iip value in the Somali jet is strong, the summer monsoon strong tropical India, corresponding tropical rainfall, and rainfall in subtropical areas are normal; and the tropical West Pacific monsoon is weak, the tropical western Pacific Less rainfall in summer (4). MJO anomaly intensity and fall and winter SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific has significant correlation, therefore, we can use the MJO anomaly as ENSO occurrence prediction signal. If the summer MJO in the Pacific active continuously, can promote the formation of winter El Nino event; on the contrary, if the summer MJO in India ocean and continued to be active, in the Western Pacific MJO anomaly is not active, can promote the formation of La in the winter of Nina events. It can provide the basis for early prediction of short-term climate prediction related business. (5) the inherent mechanism of MJO effect of ENSO occurred during the summer in the Pacific: when MJO sustained abnormal when the last appeared in the Pacific tropical convection zone, weaken the equatorial Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean; low level westerly wind control, has the sea surface wind stress anomaly is sustained. The positive wind stress anomalies excited at sea Warm ocean Kelvin wave, sub surface warm water from the Western Pacific to the East Pacific, resulting in the autumn season, the eastern tropical Pacific SST warmer. The final warm waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean accumulation, promoted the formation of El Nino events. When summer MJO in India ocean anomaly and continued to appear in the Eastern tropical India ocean tropical convection zone. To enhance the equatorial Pacific Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean; low level wind control, the sea surface wind stress and negative anomalies. Continuous negative wind stress anomalies excited by Kelvin wave of cold ocean, sub surface cold water from the Western Pacific with the East Pacific, resulting in the autumn season, the eastern tropical Pacific SST is cold cold water in the eastern Pacific. Eventually the accumulation, promoted the formation of La Nina events. (6) in the discussion of the relationship between the the Atlantic spring SST anomaly and summer MJO anomalies, we found: Spring The Atlantic will lead to higher SST in summer MJO in India ocean and the the Atlantic spring SST anomaly and low will lead to the summer MJO in the Pacific. After the proposed mechanism of persistent anomaly of the Atlantic in Spring Summer SST anomalies may continue MJO. The effect of air sea interaction may have two ways: one is through the SST generated by cyclone effect of the equatorial anticyclone, and vertical circulation. The circulation situation caused by the Walker circulation strengthened or weakened in the summer, the equatorial anomalous updraft appeared in India or the East Pacific Ocean. Another route is the North Atlantic SST triode may inspire the northern hemisphere CGT wave, effects of convective activities in India ocean area. (7) we found that the spring tropical sea surface temperature anomaly in the Atlantic first summer MMJO anomaly and led to the summer MJO in the west too Pingyang unusually active / inactive, further weakening / enhanced Walker circulation over the Pacific Ocean, the low-level westerly anomalies appear and produce significant / East, East / west wind stress anomaly, excitation temperature change East, West Pacific subsurface water reverse trend, resulting in the eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomaly warm / cold, have an impact on the formation of the autumn season of ENSO. Therefore, on the basis of judgment in spring SST anomalies can be used as key areas of the Atlantic and ENSO.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：P732

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