本文關鍵詞： 衛(wèi)星測高 驗潮站數(shù)據(jù) 海平面變化 余水位 極值水位 越南沿海　出處：《武漢大學》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：海洋對自然界以及人類的生活具有重大的意義,它起到很重要的作用,比如提供潮水能、熱能、海浪能等,海洋尤其是大陸架地層中蘊藏著豐富的資源,諸如金屬、石油等,是發(fā)展工業(yè)所需重要資源。海洋漁業(yè)和養(yǎng)殖業(yè)、水產品出口加工業(yè)以及造船業(yè)、海洋開發(fā)機械業(yè)的發(fā)展也與海洋緊緊地聯(lián)系在一起。然而,人類從海洋獲得利益的同時也要面臨很多來自海洋的挑戰(zhàn),比如海平面異常上升、臺風、風暴潮、鹽堿化加劇、海岸侵蝕導致沿海地區(qū)地貌不穩(wěn)定等現(xiàn)象。這些源自海洋的自然災害對沿海居民的生命財產安全以及沿�；A設施造成嚴重威脅和損害,在現(xiàn)今全球氣候變化的背景下,情況更加嚴重。因此對海洋進行研究,掌握海洋變化規(guī)律從而有效控制并充分開發(fā)海洋,是現(xiàn)今全球關注的重要問題。通過海洋研究所取得的成果,我們將有可能基于自然規(guī)律,及時提出各種海洋災害的預警預報,支持和保障海洋開發(fā)和海洋經濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。驗潮站觀測記錄是研究海平面變化最基礎的數(shù)據(jù),它具有長期性和穩(wěn)定性的特點,但由于驗潮站位于島嶼或大陸沿岸地區(qū),導致驗潮站觀測值收到驗潮站所處板塊垂直運動影響。衛(wèi)星測高作為一項空間測量技術,它以衛(wèi)星為載體,借助于空間、電子和微波等高技術來量測全球海面高。為了確定南海海域和越南沿海水位波動特征及其變化趨勢,本文已經使用了大量的越南沿海驗潮站數(shù)據(jù)記錄和16年衛(wèi)星測高數(shù)據(jù)進行研究,研究工作和研究成果具體包括：1、主要工作利用驗潮站數(shù)據(jù)研究越南沿海海區(qū)海平面,海潮,余水位(無潮水位)變化特征和趨勢,以及極值水位統(tǒng)計預測。用于研究的驗潮站做多共33個,分布在從北至南6個有代表性岸區(qū),少數(shù)在近岸島上,數(shù)據(jù)時間跨度在20-48年之間(1961--2009),采樣率大多數(shù)為1h。論文第六章利用1993～2008年T/P和Jason-1數(shù)據(jù)簡略計算了全球和南中國海的海平面變化。2、主要成果(1)利用沿海從北至南6個代表性海區(qū)10個長期觀測驗潮站數(shù)據(jù),研究了各海區(qū)海平面變化特征和趨勢。得到平均上升率為1.9mm/a。6個海區(qū)(北北,北中,中中,南中,東南,西南)除北宗區(qū)平均下降-3.2mm/a外均呈上升趨勢(1961～2010),1990～2010年平均上升率為2.4mm/a。多年平均海面最高和最低之差為20～50cm。(2)利用沿海6個海區(qū)的代表驗潮站數(shù)據(jù),研究了沿海海潮特征及其變化趨勢。6個海區(qū)潮差(高潮位與低潮位之差)總體平均上升2.4mm/a,其中只有北中部平均下降-2.2mm/a；經過利用越南沿海代表驗潮站的長期觀測時間的逐小時觀測記錄,進行潮汐調和分析獲得了每年的潮汐調和常數(shù),然后根據(jù)分潮調和常數(shù)時間序列,采用線性回歸模型分析各主要分潮調和常數(shù)的變化趨勢；根據(jù)關于主要全日潮和半日潮V指數(shù)的潮汐性質分類準則,包括正規(guī)和不正規(guī)全日潮,正規(guī)和不正規(guī)半日潮共四類,給出了6個海區(qū)潮汐類型的不同分布及振幅的量級和18年周期變化率,并結合ENSO(厄爾尼諾南方濤動)現(xiàn)象對結果作了解釋。研究越南沿海潮汐結構及變是論文重點內容。(3)基于三種概率分布(Pearson-Ⅲ, Gumbel和Weibull),利用沿海6海區(qū)10個驗潮站最長50年觀測資料,研究計算了各海區(qū)極值水位及其預測。使用作者本人研制的潮汐分析軟件包,對各參考觀測資料求解了114個分潮調和常數(shù),據(jù)此推算了不同時間間隔天文潮位時間序列,推估了不同重現(xiàn)期(10年-500年)多年一遇最高水位,比較了三種計算結果,差值均小于5cm,建議取三種結果平均值為最優(yōu),并討論了多年一遇最高水位值用于工程設計的安全和經濟性問題。(4)作了6個海區(qū)代表驗潮站余水位(增減水位)變化的統(tǒng)計分析,得出多數(shù)站月平均余水位時間序列呈上升趨勢,且與月平均海平面長期性變化趨勢基本一致,分別統(tǒng)計了各站年平均余水位上升和下降交錯出現(xiàn)的次數(shù)和對應持續(xù)時間,給出了增水位和減水位不同持續(xù)時間的累計頻率,得出小于1天的頻率均90%,大于2天的1%(臺風發(fā)生期),同時得出增水位50cm的累積頻率平均96%,減水位-50cm累積頻率平均97%.(5)利用1993～2008(16年)T/P和Jason-1測高數(shù)據(jù),分析了全球和南海海平面變化趨勢,得出總體呈上升趨勢,各年上升速度有差異,南海不同海區(qū)海平面變化表現(xiàn)出較大波動,平均速度為2.72±0.01mm/a,略高于全球平均上升速率2.14±0.06mm/a。
[Abstract]:The sea is of great significance to nature and human life, it plays a very important role, such as providing the energy, wave energy, ocean thermal energy, especially the continental shelf strata are rich in resources, such as metals, such as oil, is required for industrial development of important resources. Marine Fisheries and aquaculture water. Export processing industry and shipbuilding industry, the development of marine industry and marine machinery are closely linked. However, people benefit from the ocean but also face many challenges from the ocean, such as sea level anomaly on the rise, typhoon, storm surge, salinization intensified, coastal erosion, coastal areas lead to unstable landforms the phenomenon of these natural disasters. From the sea to coastal residents life and property safety and coastal infrastructure poses a serious threat and damage, in the background of global climate change, more And serious. So the research on the ocean, the ocean to grasp the change rule in order to effectively control and fully develop the ocean, is an important problem in current global concern. Through marine research achievements, we will be based on the laws of nature, warning timely put forward a variety of marine disasters, sustainable development support and protection of marine development and economy the tide gauge records are the most basic research data of sea level changes, it is long-term and stable, but the tide station is located on the island or the mainland coastal areas, resulting in tidal tidal stations where the values received plate vertical movement observation station. Satellite altimetry is a new spatial measurement technology. It is carried by satellite, with the help of space, electronic and microwave technology to measure the global sea level. In order to determine the South China Sea and Vietnam coastal water level fluctuation characteristics and its change This trend has been used in a large number of Vietnamese coastal tide research station data record and 16 years of satellite altimetry data, research work and research results including: 1. The main work of the tidal sea level, coastal sea data on Vietnam sea tide, residual water level (non tidal water level variation characteristics and trend prediction), and extreme water level statistics. For the study of the tidal stations do a total of 33, distributed from north to south in 6 representative coastal areas, few in the coastal island, the time span of data in 20-48 years (1961--2009), the sampling rate for the majority of 1h. in the sixth chapter, using 1993~2008 T/P Jason-1 data and brief sea level the change of.2 global and South Chinese sea were calculated, the main results (1) the coast from north to South and 6 representative in 10 long-term observations of tide gauge data, studies the character of sea-level changes in each area and get an average increase trend. The rate of 1.9mm/a.6 (North Sea, the north, in the south, Southeast, southwest, North District) in cases with an average decrease of -3.2mm/a were increased (1961~2010), the 1990~2010 year average increase rate of 2.4mm/a. for the highest and lowest mean sea level difference is 20 ~ 50cm. (2) by representatives of 6 coastal waters the tide gauge data, study the coastal tide characteristics and trend of.6 in tidal range (high tide and low tide difference) overall rise by an average of 2.4mm/a, which is just north of the central average decrease of -2.2mm/a; after a long time of observation by Vietnam coastal tide station on behalf of the hourly observation records of tidal harmonic analysis was obtained the annual tidal harmonic constant, then according to the time series of tidal harmonic constants, using linear regression model to analyze the change trend of the main tidal harmonic constants; according to the diurnal and semidiurnal tides on the main V index The tidal nature of the classification criteria, including regular and irregular diurnal tide, regular and irregular semidiurnal tide a total of four categories, given different distribution and amplitude of 6 types of tidal level and 18 years periodic change rate, and the combination of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) phenomenon explained the results. On the coast of Vietnam tidal structure and change is the focus of this paper. (3) three based on probability distribution (Pearson- III, Gumbel and Weibull), the 6 coastal waters of 10 tide stations in the long 50 years of observation data, calculate the area and extreme water level forecasting. The developed by the author on the tidal analysis software package the reference data for 114 tidal harmonic constants, calculated the different time interval of astronomical tide time series to estimate the different return period (10 -500 years) the highest level in years, compared with three kinds of calculation results, the difference was less than 5 Cm, take three the average value is optimal, and discussed the highest level for many years a value for the engineering design of security and economic issues. (4) as the 6 representative sea tide station (or water) residual water level variation analysis of statistics, most of that station monthly average residual water level time series is rising the trend, and it is consistent with the monthly mean sea level long-term trends, respectively, statistics the station average residual water level rise and fall times of staggered and the corresponding duration, the cumulative frequency is given by the water level and the water level reduction of different duration, the frequency of less than 1 days were 90%, more than 2 days 1% (typhoon period), at the same time that the cumulative frequency of an average of 96% level 50cm, level -50cm reduced cumulative frequency average 97%. (5) by 1993~2008 (16) T/P and Jason-1 altimeter data, and analyzes the global sea level change trend, the overall There is an upward trend. The speed of annual rise is different. The sea level changes in different areas of the South China Sea show great fluctuations. The average speed is 2.72 + 0.01mm/a, slightly higher than the global average rate of increase of 2.14 0.06mm/a..

【學位授予單位】：武漢大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：P731.23

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