本文選題：能源革命 + 可再生能源��； 參考：《河南大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境三者之間聯(lián)系緊密,相互促進(jìn),相互影響。依賴于以煤炭、石油為主的傳統(tǒng)化石能源系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展模式,不僅為中國帶來了快速的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,也引起了諸如水污染、土壤污染、大氣污染等環(huán)境問題,并反過來制約著國內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,同時嚴(yán)重影響人們的身心健康。經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與環(huán)境之間的不協(xié)調(diào)突顯出了傳統(tǒng)能源系統(tǒng)無法繼續(xù)支撐可持續(xù)發(fā)展,對此,中國提出了能源革命的偉大戰(zhàn)略。本論文主要對能源革命的本質(zhì)及特征,中國引領(lǐng)第三次能源革命的條件,以及在第三次能源革命中所面臨的路徑選擇進(jìn)行了研究分析。能源革命與工業(yè)革命聯(lián)系緊密,對此,我們聚焦于工業(yè)文明視角下分析能源革命的歷程,可以更加有針對性的凝煉出能源革命的本質(zhì):能源系統(tǒng)之間的替代,由經(jīng)濟(jì)問題引發(fā),核心技術(shù)突破推動,形成以新能源為主導(dǎo)地位的替代過程,導(dǎo)致各領(lǐng)域?qū)崿F(xiàn)技術(shù)革命與相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)興起,從而產(chǎn)生工業(yè)革命。替代的關(guān)鍵特征是新能源的主導(dǎo)性與核心技術(shù)性,而中國要引領(lǐng)第三次能源革命還要注意到替代的層次性(能源系統(tǒng)內(nèi)的替代與能源系統(tǒng)間的替代);替代的兼顧性(可替代能源種類的多樣性、替代標(biāo)準(zhǔn)與實際國情三者結(jié)合);替代模式的多元化(主要分為以可再生能源為主的推廣模式,和以化石能源與核能為主的高端模式)。英國引領(lǐng)了第一次能源革命,進(jìn)而領(lǐng)導(dǎo)了第一次工業(yè)革命,美國引領(lǐng)了第二次能源革命,進(jìn)而領(lǐng)導(dǎo)了第二次工業(yè)革命,由此可知,中國如果要領(lǐng)導(dǎo)第三次工業(yè)革命,實現(xiàn)中華民族的偉大復(fù)興,就必須先引領(lǐng)第三次能源革命。本文就中國如何能夠引領(lǐng)第三次能源革命做了相關(guān)研究,認(rèn)為可以從相對引領(lǐng)和絕對引領(lǐng)兩個方面給予考慮。相對引領(lǐng)是中國已經(jīng)具備并需要進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)的優(yōu)勢條件,主要表現(xiàn)在中華民族復(fù)興的強(qiáng)烈夙愿,政治體制的優(yōu)越性,可再生能源儲量及種類的優(yōu)勢,國內(nèi)能源市場潛力,相關(guān)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新潛力等;絕對引領(lǐng)是中國當(dāng)前需要努力爭取實現(xiàn)的目標(biāo),主要表現(xiàn)在新能源技術(shù)的創(chuàng)新與引進(jìn),國內(nèi)市場的綠色轉(zhuǎn)型,加強(qiáng)新能源政策的激勵力度與政策體系的優(yōu)化,合理規(guī)劃國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展,轉(zhuǎn)變能源利用意識等。中國只有充分發(fā)揮相對優(yōu)勢,積極彌補(bǔ)不足,才能實現(xiàn)對第三次能源革命的絕對引領(lǐng),進(jìn)而領(lǐng)導(dǎo)第三次工業(yè)革命。根據(jù)以上分析,本文采用情景分析法,從能源轉(zhuǎn)型過程中政策支持在方向和力度上的差異著手,并基于能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境三者之間的關(guān)系及其相互影響,設(shè)置政策支持與政策不支持兩組情景,政策不支持情景具體表現(xiàn)為參照情景,而政策支持情景根據(jù)不同的側(cè)重方向分為三個子情境,分別是技術(shù)政策情景、環(huán)境政策情景、能源政策情景,據(jù)此相應(yīng)的歸納出當(dāng)前能源革命的四種路徑,即保守路徑、溫和路徑、絕對路徑、積極——可持續(xù)路徑,經(jīng)分析,認(rèn)為中國有必要在溫和與絕對兩種路徑之間尋求平衡,選擇積極——可持續(xù)的發(fā)展路徑。最后,結(jié)合中國當(dāng)前的能源戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)、權(quán)威性研究報告、以及工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程等實際國情,在國內(nèi)2010——2030年的非化石能源發(fā)展趨勢的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合積極又可持續(xù)的發(fā)展路徑,定性預(yù)測出中國有望于2050年可再生能源占一次能源消費(fèi)比例達(dá)到50%,基本完成能源革命,最終保障中國未來能源需求與能源安全,實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The development model of traditional fossil energy system, which relies on coal and oil, not only brings rapid economic growth for China, but also causes environmental problems such as water pollution, soil pollution, large gas pollution and other environmental problems, which in turn restricts the domestic economy of the three traditional fossil energy systems, which are based on coal and oil. Development, at the same time, seriously affects people's physical and mental health. The incongruity between economic development and the environment shows that the traditional energy system cannot continue to sustain sustainable development. China has put forward a great strategy for the energy revolution. This paper is mainly about the nature and characteristics of the energy revolution, and the conditions for China to lead the third energy revolution, and The path choice faced in the third energy revolution is studied and analyzed. The energy revolution is closely linked with the industrial revolution. In this regard, we focus on the analysis of the energy revolution from the perspective of industrial civilization, and we can more pertinent the essence of the energy revolution: the substitution between the energy sources, the economic problems, the core, and the core of the energy revolution Technological breakthroughs promote the formation of an alternative process leading to new energy, which leads to the technological revolution and the rise of related industries in various fields, thus producing industrial revolution. The key feature of the substitution is the dominance and core technology of the new energy, and the third energy revolution in China should also pay attention to the level of substitution (energy system). Internal Substitution and alternative energy systems; alternative considerations (the diversity of alternative sources of energy, the combination of alternative standards and actual national conditions); the diversification of alternative models (mainly divided into renewable energy based promotion models, and high end models based on fossil energy and nuclear energy). Britain led the first energy revolution, Then leading the first industrial revolution, the United States led the second energy revolution and led the second industrial revolution. Thus, if China is to lead the third industrial revolution and realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, the third energy revolution must be led first. This article is on how China can lead the third energy revolution. The relative research can be considered from the two aspects of relative guidance and absolute guidance. The relative guidance is China's already possessed and need to further strengthen the advantages, mainly in the strong long cherished wish of the Chinese nation's revival, the superiority of the political system, the advantages of the renewable energy reserves and types, the potential of the domestic energy market, This is the potential for technological innovation and so on; absolutely leading is the goal that China needs to strive to achieve at present, mainly in the innovation and introduction of new energy technology, the green transformation of the domestic market, the strengthening of the incentive and policy system of the new energy policy, the rational planning of the development of domestic industry and the change of the consciousness of energy utilization. We can realize the absolute lead of the third energy revolution and lead the third industrial revolution. According to the above analysis, this paper uses the situational analysis method, the difference between the direction and the strength of the policy support in the process of energy transformation, and the relationship between the three parties based on energy, economy and the environment. And their mutual influence, the policy support and policy do not support two groups of scenarios, the policy does not support the situation specific performance as the reference scene, and the policy support scenario is divided into three sub situations according to the different emphasis direction, namely the technical policy scenario, the environment policy scenario, the energy policy scenario, accordingly the corresponding induction of the current energy revolution. The four paths, namely, the conservative path, the mild path, the absolute path, the sustainable path, and the analysis, think that it is necessary for China to seek a balance between the moderate and absolute two paths and to choose a positive and sustainable development path. Finally, it combines China's current source of energy strategic objectives, authoritative research reports, and industrialization, cities and towns. On the basis of the development trend of non fossil energy in China from 2010 to 2030 and combined with the positive and sustainable development path, it is qualitatively predicted that China is expected to reach 50% of the primary energy consumption in 2050, basically complete the energy revolution, and ultimately guarantee China's future energy demand and energy security. To realize the sustainable development of the economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F426.2

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