【摘要】：隨著現(xiàn)代科學(xué)技術(shù)水平的提高與全球化趨勢(shì)的發(fā)展,氣候變化和氣象災(zāi)害問(wèn)題受到世界各國(guó)的普遍關(guān)注。暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害成為氣象災(zāi)害中最為常見(jiàn)和最具威脅性的氣象災(zāi)害之一,同時(shí)也是人類(lèi)社會(huì)共同面臨和關(guān)注的重大問(wèn)題。建立暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害影響評(píng)估模型對(duì)制定防災(zāi)減災(zāi)預(yù)案、減少人口傷亡和減少人民財(cái)產(chǎn)損失有著重要意義。 本文將歷次災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行均一性分析,篩選出均一性較好的災(zāi)情數(shù)據(jù)；基于GIS技術(shù)對(duì)濰坊市人口、GDP統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行空間化,構(gòu)建了濰坊市暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害影響評(píng)估模型,并以一次暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害過(guò)程為例,對(duì)該過(guò)程進(jìn)行影響評(píng)估。最后模擬此次災(zāi)害過(guò)程每3小時(shí)影響指數(shù)分布情況,用小時(shí)降雨數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行對(duì)比驗(yàn)證分析。研究結(jié)果表明：①通過(guò)災(zāi)情數(shù)據(jù)的質(zhì)量控制后得到的災(zāi)情數(shù)據(jù)相關(guān)性顯著提高；②利用泰森多邊形法空間化的人口統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)果與基于土地利用類(lèi)型數(shù)據(jù)的GDP空間化結(jié)果平均誤差(絕對(duì)值)分別為13.7%和5.51%,空間化結(jié)果與實(shí)際空間分布基本一致；③根據(jù)空間化結(jié)果與選取的影響因子,采用模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法與層次分析法計(jì)算濰坊市歷次暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害影響指數(shù),并計(jì)算災(zāi)情指數(shù)進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,驗(yàn)證結(jié)果表明模擬的暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害與實(shí)際災(zāi)情數(shù)據(jù)等級(jí)的一致率為70.97%,災(zāi)害影響指數(shù)與災(zāi)情指數(shù)相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.72,災(zāi)害影響指數(shù)與直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.69,災(zāi)情指數(shù)與直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.74；④對(duì)濰坊市一次暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害過(guò)程進(jìn)行影響評(píng)估,并計(jì)算每3小時(shí)暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害影響指數(shù)分布,通過(guò)與氣象站小時(shí)降水?dāng)?shù)據(jù)對(duì)比,模型能較好的對(duì)濰坊市暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害影響評(píng)估。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of modern science and technology and the development of globalization, climate change and meteorological disasters have been paid more and more attention all over the world. Torrential rain and flood disaster has become one of the most common and threatening meteorological disasters, and it is also a major problem that human society faces and pays close attention to. The establishment of rainstorm and flood disaster impact assessment model is of great significance to the formulation of disaster prevention and mitigation plan, the reduction of population casualties and the reduction of people's property losses. In this paper, the statistical data of previous disasters are analyzed uniformly, and the data with good uniformity are screened out. Based on GIS technology, the statistical data of population and GDP in Weifang City are spatialized, and the impact assessment model of rainstorm and flood disasters in Weifang City is constructed, and the impact assessment of this process is carried out by taking a rainstorm flood disaster process as an example. Finally, the influence index distribution of the disaster process is simulated every 3 hours, and the hourly rainfall data are compared and analyzed. The results show that: (1) the correlation of disaster data obtained by quality control of disaster data is significantly improved, (2) the average error (absolute value) between the results of population statistics using Tyson polygons and the results of spatial GDP based on land use type data are 13.7% and 5.51%, respectively, and the spatial results are basically consistent with the actual spatial distribution. (3) according to the spatial results and selected influencing factors, the influence index of rainstorm flood disaster in Weifang City is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the disaster index is calculated to verify the results. The verification results show that the consistency rate between simulated rainstorm flood disaster and actual disaster data grade is 70.97%, and the correlation coefficient between disaster impact index and disaster index is 0.72. The correlation coefficient between disaster impact index and direct economic loss is 0.69, and that between disaster index and direct economic loss is 0.74. (4) the impact assessment of a rainstorm flood disaster process in Weifang City is carried out, and the influence index distribution of rainstorm flood disaster every 3 hours is calculated. By comparing with the hourly precipitation data of meteorological stations, the model can better evaluate the impact of rainstorm flood disaster in Weifang City.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京信息工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：P426.616;P208

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