【摘要】：LUCC是人類活動與自然環(huán)境相互作用的直接反應，是全球環(huán)境變化的重要組成部分，也是研究全球環(huán)境變化的核心內容。特別是地處干旱半干旱地區(qū)的綠洲，具有高度的封閉性，分布具有高度的分散性，生態(tài)承載力具有高度的脆弱敏感性。以地處全國最大的半固定沙漠西緣，同時也是新疆最大的咸水湖流域中心的精河流域綠洲為研究靶區(qū)，運用3S技術對研究區(qū)近40年來LUCC規(guī)律做了詳細分析，并引入CLUE_S模型對該區(qū)未來LUCC做出預測。對生態(tài)環(huán)境脆弱區(qū)的土地利用可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要的實踐意義。研究結論如下： 過去的40年間，精河流域綠洲土地利用格局發(fā)生了顯著的變化。耕地和建設用地面積持續(xù)增大，耕地由105.15km~2增至398.45km~2，建設用地從10.07km~2增至33.43km~2；水域和中植被覆蓋區(qū)面積持續(xù)減少，水域由622.6km~2降至463.26km~2，中覆蓋度植被由347.95km~2降至56.57km~2；高覆蓋度植被區(qū)和未利用土地面積基本保持穩(wěn)定。土地利用面積比例最大的三類是未利用土地、水域和低覆蓋度植被，三種地類比例，從1972年的24.21∶34.01∶20.73，轉換到2010年的18.01∶33.64∶26.39。低覆蓋度植被區(qū)面積波動增加，水域面積持續(xù)減少，未利用土地面積總體減少大，但是減少幅度非常小。 LUCC格局變化幅度總體前期大于后期。1972-1990年期間與1990-2010年期間相比較，就具體地類而言：前期建設用地變化幅度最大104.22%，后期耕地變化幅度157.465%遠高于其他地類，植被覆蓋區(qū)前期變化幅度也大于后期，最為明顯的是中覆蓋度植被區(qū)，變化幅度為64.02%。近40年來土地利用變化幅度最大的地類是耕地和建設用地，變化幅度為278.94%和222.11%。人文因素是導致變化的主要影響子，其中人口增長是主要原因。 運用CLUE_S模型對土地利用格局模擬的核心是各個空間和非空間驅動力與各地類之間的回歸分析，，分析的結果是模型參數(shù)文件設置的必要條件。選取對土地利用格局影響顯著的道路、渠系、居民點、距離湖面距離、鐵路等因素對精河流域綠洲2010-2025年土地利用格局模擬，ROC檢驗結果較理想：耕地0.881、水體0.757、建設用地0.895、低覆蓋度植被0.766、中覆蓋度植被0.833、高覆蓋度植被0.744、未利用土地0.756，擬合度均大于0.7,可以做為LUCC模擬的研究模型。以1990年為基期，輸入驅動因子模擬2010年的土地利用格局，將結果與2010年的土地利用現(xiàn)狀做比較，模擬正確的柵格數(shù)量正確率為85.3%，Kappa指數(shù)為0.832，說明CLUE_S模型可以較好的模擬精河流域綠洲土地利用格局。 對研究區(qū)2025年LUCC情景設計2個假設需求方案，分別將相應的限制區(qū)文件和需求方案輸入到模型中。結果顯示參考多方面的因素，設計合理的需求方案并給予一定的限制條件約束下的模擬結果更理想，因此，方案1的模擬結果更具參考價值。
[Abstract]:LUCC is a direct reaction of the interaction between human activities and natural environment, is an important part of global environmental change, and is also the core content of studying global environmental change. The oasis, which is located in arid and semi-arid area, has a high degree of closure, a high degree of dispersion and a high sensitivity of ecological carrying capacity. Taking the oasis of the Jinghe Basin, which is located in the western edge of the largest semi-fixed desert in China and also the center of the largest saline lake basin in Xinjiang, as the research target, the LUCC law of the research area in the past 40 years has been analyzed in detail by using 3s technology. CLUE_S model is introduced to predict the future LUCC in this area. It has important practical significance for the sustainable development of land use in the fragile ecological environment. The results are as follows: in the past 40 years, the land use pattern of the Jinghe Oasis has changed significantly. The area of cultivated land and construction land continued to increase, from 105.15km~2 to 398.45km2, and from 10.07km~2 to 33.43kmm2; The area of water area and middle vegetation cover area decreased continuously, the water area decreased from 622.6km~2 to 463.26 km2, the middle coverage vegetation decreased from 347.95km~2 to 56.57 km2, and the area of high coverage vegetation and unused land remained stable. The largest proportion of land use area is unused land, water area and low coverage vegetation. The proportion of three land types has changed from 24.21: 34.01: 20.73 in 1972 to 18.01: 33.64: 26.39 in 2010. The area fluctuation of low coverage vegetation area increases, the area of water area decreases continuously, and the area of unused land decreases greatly, but the range of decrease is very small. Compared with the period of 1990-2010, the range of change of LUCC pattern in the early stage is larger than that in the later period. In terms of specific land types, the range of change of construction land in the early stage is 104.22, and the difference between 1972-1990 and 1990-2010 is significant. The change range of cultivated land in late stage was 157.465% higher than that of other land types, and the range of change in the early stage of vegetation cover area was larger than that in later period, the most obvious change was in middle coverage vegetation area (64.02%). In the last 40 years, the largest changes in land use are cultivated land and construction land, with a range of 278.94% and 222.1111%. Human factors are the main factors leading to change, among which population growth is the main reason. The core of land use pattern simulation using CLUE_S model is regression analysis between spatial and non-spatial driving forces and local classes. The result of the analysis is a necessary condition for setting up model parameter files. Selecting the road, canal system, residential area, distance from lake to lake, railway and so on, which have significant influence on land use pattern, are selected to simulate the land use pattern of Jinhe Oasis from 2010 to 2025. The results of ROC test are satisfactory: cultivated land 0.881, water body 0.757, etc. The construction land was 0.895, the low cover was 0.766, the middle cover was 0.833, the high cover was 0.744, the unused land was 0.756, and the fitting degree was more than 0.7, which could be used as the model of LUCC simulation. Taking 1990 as the base period, the input driving factor was used to simulate the land use pattern in 2010, and the results were compared with the present land use situation in 2010. The correct rate of simulating the correct number of grids was 85.3% and the Kappa index was 0.832. The results show that CLUE_S model can simulate the land use pattern of Qinghe River Basin. Two hypothetical requirement schemes were designed for the LUCC scenario in 2025, and the corresponding restricted area files and requirement schemes were input into the model respectively. The results show that it is better to design a reasonable demand scheme and give some constraints to the simulation results, so the simulation results of scheme 1 are more valuable.
【學位授予單位】：新疆師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F301;P208

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