【摘要】：基于72個(gè)湖南連續(xù)運(yùn)行參考站(CORS)反演得到的可降水量(PWV),針對2015-04-03~04-04湘北地區(qū)一次局地暴雨,結(jié)合溫度和氣壓等大氣熱動力條件,分析湖南省PWV時(shí)間序列及其平面動態(tài)分布變化,并總結(jié)此次暴雨過程中水汽場變化規(guī)律。研究結(jié)果表明,作為降水的必要條件,PWV峰值越大降水概率越高,當(dāng)PWV突破48mm并首次降低時(shí),隨后1h內(nèi)會出現(xiàn)降水;當(dāng)PWV持續(xù)增強(qiáng)達(dá)到峰值50mm之后再次下降時(shí),PWV增量變化很大程度上決定著雨勢的大小及降雨持續(xù)時(shí)長;氣溫和氣壓等熱動力條件也對雨勢預(yù)測有一定的指示作用;PWV分布變化可對實(shí)際降水范圍(落區(qū))趨勢作出較為準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測。
[Abstract]:Based on the (CORS) inversion of 72 continuous operation reference stations in Hunan Province, the precipitable water (PWV), is obtained for a local rainstorm in the northern Hunan region of 2015-04-0304-04, combined with atmospheric thermodynamic conditions such as temperature and atmospheric pressure. The PWV time series and its plane dynamic distribution in Hunan Province are analyzed, and the variation law of water vapor field during the torrential rain is summarized. The results show that, as a necessary condition of precipitation, the higher the PWV peak value is, the higher the precipitation probability is. When PWV breaks through 48mm and decreases for the first time, precipitation will occur within 1 hour. When PWV continues to increase to the peak value of 50mm and then decrease again, the increment of PWV largely determines the magnitude of rain intensity and the duration of rainfall, and the thermal dynamic conditions such as temperature and pressure can also indicate the forecast of rain intensity. The variation of PWV distribution can accurately predict the trend of actual precipitation range (falling area).
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本文編號：2396359