【摘要】：水汽在天氣系統(tǒng)能量傳輸中至關(guān)重要,所以水汽的實(shí)時(shí)監(jiān)測(cè)對(duì)研究災(zāi)害性天氣形成機(jī)理和預(yù)報(bào)有重要價(jià)值。局域CORS網(wǎng)因其實(shí)時(shí)觀測(cè)、高精度、高分辨率及耗費(fèi)低等優(yōu)點(diǎn)被廣泛應(yīng)用于局域地基GPS水汽研究中,特別是局部地區(qū)特大暴雨的預(yù)報(bào)研究和臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害天氣的演化機(jī)理分析。我國(guó)區(qū)域性CORS網(wǎng)布設(shè)越來(lái)越完善,但各區(qū)域氣象環(huán)境存在差異,所以針對(duì)局域地基GPS水汽分析理論有待深入研究。本文以香港為局域研究對(duì)象,探索了局域模型構(gòu)建方法,分析了局域特殊天氣中GPS水汽的演化特征。主要研究?jī)?nèi)容如下:1)闡述了局域地基GPS遙感水汽的基礎(chǔ)理論,重點(diǎn)分析了高精度GPS分析軟件Gamit和Bernese在GPS遙感水汽中的參數(shù)設(shè)置。2)考慮到Bevis公式運(yùn)用到局域Tm計(jì)算中精度有所下降和王曉英公式的時(shí)效性,本文利用香港45004號(hào)探空站近兩年數(shù)據(jù)建立了局域Tm單因子和多因子模型,得到較高的局地Tm計(jì)算精度。3)研究了香港地區(qū)ZTD時(shí)空特征,建立了局域ZTD高差改正模型;將ARIMA模型運(yùn)用到高精度單站ZTD短期預(yù)報(bào)中,得到mm級(jí)預(yù)報(bào)精度;基于局域CORS網(wǎng)建立了區(qū)域ZTD內(nèi)插模型,且模擬內(nèi)插精度達(dá)到毫米級(jí)。4)驗(yàn)證了PPP技術(shù)解算區(qū)域CORS網(wǎng)的ZTD精度;論證了PPP技術(shù)運(yùn)用到局域氣象分析中的可行性;分析了基于PPP技術(shù)解算的CORS網(wǎng)ZTD模擬內(nèi)插精度,研究得出該精度可達(dá)到經(jīng)驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ途取?)分析了3次典型特大暴雨期間局域地基GPS水汽的演化特征,得出實(shí)際降水量的大小與GPS/PWV高低無(wú)直接關(guān)系,與GPS/PWV減少幅度及局部地形有關(guān)。6)分析了臺(tái)風(fēng)“鸚鵡”登陸香港前后區(qū)域地基GPS/PWV的演化特征,研究得出GPS/PWV峰值出現(xiàn)在距離臺(tái)風(fēng)約120km處,且臺(tái)風(fēng)登陸中并不會(huì)造成GPS/PWV震蕩;臺(tái)風(fēng)逼近過(guò)程中,局地氣壓變化呈“V”字形先降后升,期間氣壓會(huì)出現(xiàn)低頻震蕩,高程越大震蕩越早且越劇烈。7)因高精度GPS分析軟件功能不足,局域Tm模型不能直接運(yùn)用到局域地基GPS/PWV計(jì)算中,本文采用C++語(yǔ)言編寫(xiě)了GPS水汽輔助計(jì)算程序,提高了數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算效率。
[Abstract]:Water vapor plays an important role in the energy transmission of weather system, so the real-time monitoring of water vapor is of great value in studying the formation mechanism and prediction of disastrous weather. Because of its advantages of real-time observation, high precision, high resolution and low cost, the local CORS network is widely used in the study of local ground GPS water vapor, especially in the prediction of heavy rain in local areas and the analysis of the evolution mechanism of typhoon disaster weather. The arrangement of regional CORS network in China is more and more perfect, but the meteorological environment of each region is different, so the theory of local ground GPS water vapor analysis needs to be deeply studied. In this paper, we take Hong Kong as the local research object, explore the method of local model construction, and analyze the evolution characteristics of GPS water vapor in local special weather. The main research contents are as follows: 1) the basic theory of local ground GPS remote sensing water vapor is expounded. The parameter setting of high precision GPS analysis software Gamit and Bernese in remote sensing water vapor of GPS is analyzed emphatically. 2) considering that the precision of Bevis formula applied to local Tm calculation has been decreased and the timeliness of Wang Xiaoying formula has been taken into account. Based on the data of Hong Kong sounding station 45004 in recent two years, the local Tm single-factor and multi-factor models are established, and the local Tm calculation accuracy is obtained. 3) the spatio-temporal characteristics of ZTD in Hong Kong are studied, and the local ZTD height correction model is established. The ARIMA model is applied to the high-precision single-station ZTD short-term prediction, and the mm stage prediction accuracy is obtained, and the regional ZTD interpolation model is established based on the local CORS net, and the simulated interpolation accuracy reaches millimeter level. 4) the ZTD accuracy of the PPP technique is verified to solve the regional CORS net. The feasibility of applying PPP technology to local meteorological analysis is demonstrated. The interpolation accuracy of CORS net ZTD simulation based on PPP technique is analyzed, and it is found that the precision can reach the precision of empirical model. 5) the evolution characteristics of local ground GPS water vapor during three typical heavy rainfall periods are analyzed. It is concluded that the actual precipitation is not directly related to GPS/PWV, but to the reduction of GPS/PWV and local topography. 6) the evolution characteristics of ground GPS/PWV in the area before and after typhoon parrot landing in Hong Kong are analyzed. The results show that the peak value of GPS/PWV appears at the distance from typhoon 120km, and the GPS/PWV oscillation does not occur during the landfall of typhoon. In the process of typhoon approaching, the local pressure changes in the shape of "V" and then rises, during which the pressure will appear low frequency oscillation, the greater the height is, the earlier and more violent. 7) because of the lack of function of the high-precision GPS analysis software, The local Tm model can not be directly applied to the calculation of local ground GPS/PWV. In this paper, the GPS water vapor aided calculation program is compiled with C language, which improves the efficiency of data calculation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：貴州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：P228.4;P407

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