基于小波-ARIMA電離層短期總電子含量預(yù)報
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-12 06:07
【摘要】：針對電離層總電子含量(TEC)非線性、非平穩(wěn)的特性,將小波分析(Wavelet Analysis)引入到自回歸移動平均模型(ARIMA)中對TEC值進行預(yù)報。采用2010—2013年IGS中心提供的不同經(jīng)緯度活躍期、平靜期前10天電離層TEC觀測數(shù)據(jù),分別使用WARIMA和ARIMA建模預(yù)報后5天TEC值。對兩種模型預(yù)報結(jié)果與IGS中心觀測數(shù)據(jù)進行對比并統(tǒng)計預(yù)報精度,結(jié)果表明引入小波分析的ARIMA模型對TEC值預(yù)報精度的提高有良好作用。最后單獨采用WARIMA模型預(yù)報50天TEC值,通過對50天TEC預(yù)報值相對精度的統(tǒng)計,說明WARIMA模型對TEC值中長期的預(yù)報具有可行性。
[Abstract]:In view of the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC), the wavelet analysis (Wavelet Analysis) is introduced into the autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA) to predict the TEC value. The ionospheric TEC data provided by the IGS center from 2010 to 2013 were used to predict the TEC values of 5 days after the WARIMA and ARIMA were used to predict the ionospheric TEC data in the first 10 days of the quiescent period. The prediction results of the two models are compared with the observed data of the IGS center and the precision of the prediction is statistically analyzed. The results show that the ARIMA model with wavelet analysis has a good effect on the improvement of the prediction accuracy of the TEC value. Finally, the WARIMA model is used to predict the TEC value for 50 days alone, and the relative accuracy of the 50 day TEC prediction value is statistically analyzed. The results show that the WARIMA model is feasible for the medium and long term prediction of the TEC value.
【作者單位】： 桂林理工大學(xué)測繪地理信息學(xué)院;桂林理工大學(xué)廣西空間信息與測繪重點實驗室;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(41541032) 廣西空間信息與測繪重點實驗室項目(14-045-24-03;14-045-24-10;15-140-07-29;15-140-07-03) 廣西自然科學(xué)基金項目(2015GXNSFAA1S9230) 廣西高校中青年教師基礎(chǔ)能力提升項目(KY2016YB189) 廣西“八桂學(xué)者”崗位專項經(jīng)費項目 研究生教育創(chuàng)新計劃項目(YCSZ2015163)
【分類號】：P228.4;P352
本文編號：2374064
[Abstract]:In view of the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC), the wavelet analysis (Wavelet Analysis) is introduced into the autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA) to predict the TEC value. The ionospheric TEC data provided by the IGS center from 2010 to 2013 were used to predict the TEC values of 5 days after the WARIMA and ARIMA were used to predict the ionospheric TEC data in the first 10 days of the quiescent period. The prediction results of the two models are compared with the observed data of the IGS center and the precision of the prediction is statistically analyzed. The results show that the ARIMA model with wavelet analysis has a good effect on the improvement of the prediction accuracy of the TEC value. Finally, the WARIMA model is used to predict the TEC value for 50 days alone, and the relative accuracy of the 50 day TEC prediction value is statistically analyzed. The results show that the WARIMA model is feasible for the medium and long term prediction of the TEC value.
【作者單位】： 桂林理工大學(xué)測繪地理信息學(xué)院;桂林理工大學(xué)廣西空間信息與測繪重點實驗室;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(41541032) 廣西空間信息與測繪重點實驗室項目(14-045-24-03;14-045-24-10;15-140-07-29;15-140-07-03) 廣西自然科學(xué)基金項目(2015GXNSFAA1S9230) 廣西高校中青年教師基礎(chǔ)能力提升項目(KY2016YB189) 廣西“八桂學(xué)者”崗位專項經(jīng)費項目 研究生教育創(chuàng)新計劃項目(YCSZ2015163)
【分類號】：P228.4;P352
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