基于小波-ARIMA電離層短期總電子含量預(yù)報(bào)
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-12-12 06:07
【摘要】：針對(duì)電離層總電子含量(TEC)非線性、非平穩(wěn)的特性,將小波分析(Wavelet Analysis)引入到自回歸移動(dòng)平均模型(ARIMA)中對(duì)TEC值進(jìn)行預(yù)報(bào)。采用2010—2013年IGS中心提供的不同經(jīng)緯度活躍期、平靜期前10天電離層TEC觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù),分別使用WARIMA和ARIMA建模預(yù)報(bào)后5天TEC值。對(duì)兩種模型預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果與IGS中心觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行對(duì)比并統(tǒng)計(jì)預(yù)報(bào)精度,結(jié)果表明引入小波分析的ARIMA模型對(duì)TEC值預(yù)報(bào)精度的提高有良好作用。最后單獨(dú)采用WARIMA模型預(yù)報(bào)50天TEC值,通過(guò)對(duì)50天TEC預(yù)報(bào)值相對(duì)精度的統(tǒng)計(jì),說(shuō)明WARIMA模型對(duì)TEC值中長(zhǎng)期的預(yù)報(bào)具有可行性。
[Abstract]:In view of the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC), the wavelet analysis (Wavelet Analysis) is introduced into the autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA) to predict the TEC value. The ionospheric TEC data provided by the IGS center from 2010 to 2013 were used to predict the TEC values of 5 days after the WARIMA and ARIMA were used to predict the ionospheric TEC data in the first 10 days of the quiescent period. The prediction results of the two models are compared with the observed data of the IGS center and the precision of the prediction is statistically analyzed. The results show that the ARIMA model with wavelet analysis has a good effect on the improvement of the prediction accuracy of the TEC value. Finally, the WARIMA model is used to predict the TEC value for 50 days alone, and the relative accuracy of the 50 day TEC prediction value is statistically analyzed. The results show that the WARIMA model is feasible for the medium and long term prediction of the TEC value.
【作者單位】： 桂林理工大學(xué)測(cè)繪地理信息學(xué)院;桂林理工大學(xué)廣西空間信息與測(cè)繪重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(41541032) 廣西空間信息與測(cè)繪重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室項(xiàng)目(14-045-24-03;14-045-24-10;15-140-07-29;15-140-07-03) 廣西自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(2015GXNSFAA1S9230) 廣西高校中青年教師基礎(chǔ)能力提升項(xiàng)目(KY2016YB189) 廣西“八桂學(xué)者”崗位專項(xiàng)經(jīng)費(fèi)項(xiàng)目 研究生教育創(chuàng)新計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(YCSZ2015163)
【分類號(hào)】：P228.4;P352
本文編號(hào)：2374064
[Abstract]:In view of the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC), the wavelet analysis (Wavelet Analysis) is introduced into the autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA) to predict the TEC value. The ionospheric TEC data provided by the IGS center from 2010 to 2013 were used to predict the TEC values of 5 days after the WARIMA and ARIMA were used to predict the ionospheric TEC data in the first 10 days of the quiescent period. The prediction results of the two models are compared with the observed data of the IGS center and the precision of the prediction is statistically analyzed. The results show that the ARIMA model with wavelet analysis has a good effect on the improvement of the prediction accuracy of the TEC value. Finally, the WARIMA model is used to predict the TEC value for 50 days alone, and the relative accuracy of the 50 day TEC prediction value is statistically analyzed. The results show that the WARIMA model is feasible for the medium and long term prediction of the TEC value.
【作者單位】： 桂林理工大學(xué)測(cè)繪地理信息學(xué)院;桂林理工大學(xué)廣西空間信息與測(cè)繪重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(41541032) 廣西空間信息與測(cè)繪重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室項(xiàng)目(14-045-24-03;14-045-24-10;15-140-07-29;15-140-07-03) 廣西自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(2015GXNSFAA1S9230) 廣西高校中青年教師基礎(chǔ)能力提升項(xiàng)目(KY2016YB189) 廣西“八桂學(xué)者”崗位專項(xiàng)經(jīng)費(fèi)項(xiàng)目 研究生教育創(chuàng)新計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(YCSZ2015163)
【分類號(hào)】：P228.4;P352
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