【摘要】：利用IGS中心提供的不同經(jīng)緯度平靜期、活躍期14d的電離層TEC格網(wǎng)點(diǎn)數(shù)據(jù),以前8d的TEC值作為樣本序列,分別采用Holt-Winters加法模型和乘法模型建立TEC預(yù)報(bào)模型,并預(yù)報(bào)后6d的TEC值。結(jié)果表明,無論在電離層平靜期還是活躍期,2種模型所得預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果大致相同,并與實(shí)際觀測數(shù)據(jù)吻合較好,但加法模型的預(yù)測結(jié)果能更好地反映電離層TEC的變化特性。
[Abstract]:Using the ionospheric TEC dot data of different longitude and latitude calm period and active period 14 days, and TEC value of 8 days before as sample sequence, the TEC prediction model is established by Holt-Winters addition model and multiplication model, respectively. The TEC value was predicted 6 days later. The results show that the predicted results of the two models are approximately the same in the ionospheric quiescent period and the active period, and are in good agreement with the observed data. However, the prediction results of the additive model can better reflect the variation characteristics of ionospheric TEC.
【作者單位】： 桂林理工大學(xué)測繪地理信息學(xué)院;廣西空間信息與測繪重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;欽州學(xué)院資源與環(huán)境學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金(41664002;41541032;41064001) 廣西自然科學(xué)基金(2015GXNSFAA139230) 廣西空間信息與測繪重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室基金(15-140-07-11;15-140-07-29) 廣西“八桂學(xué)者”崗位專項(xiàng) 廣西研究生教育創(chuàng)新計(jì)劃(YCSZ2015163)~~
【分類號(hào)】：P228.4;P352
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本文編號(hào)：2367560