【摘要】：風(fēng)暴潮是一種由于劇烈的大氣擾動(dòng)如熱帶氣旋而導(dǎo)致海水異常升降的災(zāi)害性自然現(xiàn)象。當(dāng)風(fēng)暴潮遇上天文大潮時(shí),往往會(huì)使受其影響的海區(qū)水位暴漲。因風(fēng)暴潮引起的災(zāi)害損失高居海洋災(zāi)害之首,準(zhǔn)確而及時(shí)有效的數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)是非工程性防潮減災(zāi)的重要措施之一。 本文以中國(guó)近海為研究區(qū)域,針對(duì)當(dāng)前風(fēng)暴潮數(shù)值模型存在的問(wèn)題與不足,結(jié)合實(shí)際應(yīng)用的需要,工作內(nèi)容與研究結(jié)論主要包括以下三個(gè)方面： (1)熱帶氣旋是一種復(fù)雜的天氣現(xiàn)象,針對(duì)熱帶氣旋路徑的預(yù)報(bào)具有高度非線性的特征,利用“CMA-STI熱帶氣旋最佳路徑數(shù)據(jù)集”提供的熱帶氣旋歷史數(shù)據(jù),考慮地轉(zhuǎn)偏向力對(duì)熱帶氣旋預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果的影響,篩選優(yōu)化預(yù)報(bào)因子并進(jìn)行無(wú)量綱化處理,改進(jìn)原有的基于PSO-BP申經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的熱帶氣旋預(yù)測(cè)方法,將預(yù)測(cè)范圍擴(kuò)展至中高緯度的東海海域。 (2)基于PSO-BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的熱帶氣旋預(yù)測(cè)方法的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果可以為研究區(qū)域海面風(fēng)壓場(chǎng)的模擬提供輸入,根據(jù)二維水動(dòng)力學(xué)方程組耦合天文潮與純風(fēng)暴潮增水,構(gòu)建熱帶氣旋作用下的中國(guó)近海風(fēng)暴潮數(shù)值模型。實(shí)例驗(yàn)證結(jié)果表明該模型與實(shí)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)在振幅和相位上都基本吻合,整體上能反映出熱帶氣旋對(duì)附近海域潮位造成的影響。 (3)在Web環(huán)境下結(jié)合Fortran較強(qiáng)的數(shù)值計(jì)算能力和地理信息系統(tǒng)GIS技術(shù)可視化表達(dá)上的優(yōu)勢(shì),封裝集成相關(guān)的數(shù)值計(jì)算模型,實(shí)現(xiàn)集熱帶氣旋路徑預(yù)測(cè)和風(fēng)暴潮增水預(yù)報(bào)于一體的中國(guó)近海風(fēng)暴潮預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng),為熱帶氣旋預(yù)測(cè)與風(fēng)暴潮數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果提供直觀形象的空間查詢(xún)和可視化表達(dá),最終為科學(xué)決策提供依據(jù)和支持,減輕由熱帶氣旋引起的風(fēng)暴潮對(duì)沿海的社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)所造成的損失。
[Abstract]:Storm surge is a disastrous natural phenomenon caused by severe atmospheric disturbances such as tropical cyclones. When storm surges meet astronomical tides, they tend to inflate the water levels in the affected sea areas. The disaster loss caused by storm surge is one of the most important marine disasters. Accurate and timely numerical prediction is one of the important measures for non-engineering dampproof and disaster reduction. In this paper, taking the coastal waters of China as the research area, aiming at the problems and shortcomings of the current storm surge numerical model, combined with the needs of practical application, The main work and conclusions are as follows: (1) Tropical cyclone is a complex weather phenomenon, and the prediction of tropical cyclone path is highly nonlinear. Based on the historical data of tropical cyclones provided by the best path data set of tropical cyclones (CMA-STI), the effects of geostrophic deflection on the prediction results of tropical cyclones are considered, and the optimized forecast factors are screened and processed in a dimensionless manner. Improve the original tropical cyclone forecasting method based on PSO-BP network, The prediction range is extended to the middle and high latitudes of the East China Sea. (2) the prediction results of the tropical cyclone forecasting method based on PSO-BP neural network can provide input for the simulation of the sea surface wind pressure field in the studied area. According to the two-dimensional hydrodynamic equations coupled astronomical tide with pure storm surge the numerical model of storm surge in the coastal waters of China under the action of tropical cyclone is constructed. The experimental results show that the model is in good agreement with the measured data in amplitude and phase. On the whole, it can reflect the influence of tropical cyclone on the tidal level in the nearby sea area. (3) combined with the strong numerical computing ability of Fortran and the advantages of GIS visualization in Web environment, The integrated numerical calculation model is integrated to realize the storm surge forecasting system in offshore China, which integrates tropical cyclone path prediction and storm surge forecast. It can provide visual spatial query and visual expression for tropical cyclone prediction and storm surge numerical forecast result, and finally provide basis and support for scientific decision making, and reduce storm surge caused by tropical cyclone to coastal society. The loss caused by the economy
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：P208;P457

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