【摘要】：元胞自動機是復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)研究的重要工具,依據(jù)簡單的局部轉(zhuǎn)換規(guī)則可以模擬出復(fù)雜的現(xiàn)象,應(yīng)用于流行病傳播研究中為流行病預(yù)防提供依據(jù)；地理信息系統(tǒng)具有強大的空間分析模塊,可用于流行病的空間分布特征研究,找到影響流行病傳播的各種可能因素。基于元胞自動機的流行病傳播模型是一種簡單高效的動態(tài)系統(tǒng),地理信息系統(tǒng)可以存儲大量空間數(shù)據(jù),具有強大的對靜態(tài)空間數(shù)據(jù)的分析功能,結(jié)合元胞自動機傳播模型動態(tài)演化數(shù)據(jù)以及地理信息系統(tǒng)的數(shù)據(jù)分析功能,集成二者,發(fā)揮各自的優(yōu)勢,在統(tǒng)一地圖平臺下創(chuàng)建基于元胞自動機的集成系統(tǒng),可以實時分析和顯示數(shù)據(jù),得到更加真實的流行病傳播模擬效果,為流行病傳播研究提供了一個新思路,具有一定的現(xiàn)實意義。 本文考慮將MapX組件嵌入到CA中的集成方法,建立一個基于流行病數(shù)據(jù)的可以動態(tài)模擬傳播過程的新系統(tǒng),’系統(tǒng)的完成主要通過VC++編程實現(xiàn)。該集成系統(tǒng)主要由兩部分組成,一部分是系統(tǒng)的內(nèi)部驅(qū)動機制,也是系統(tǒng)的核心部分,基于元胞自動機的流行病傳播模型,定義影響流行病傳播的各類參數(shù),例如：元胞狀態(tài)、元胞傳染強度、元胞抵抗力、鄰居構(gòu)成、傳染概率等參數(shù),結(jié)合具體的空間數(shù)據(jù)可以不斷的改進各參數(shù)值以及定義方法,優(yōu)化元胞自動機傳播模型以及狀態(tài)跟新規(guī)則；另外一部分就是系統(tǒng)的圖形顯示部分,通過MapX的數(shù)據(jù)綁定操作以及依據(jù)單一屬性、多屬性的專題圖制作方法,將綁定的初始數(shù)據(jù)以及元胞自動機傳播模型的模擬結(jié)果數(shù)據(jù)在地圖平臺上圖形化顯示出來,得到系統(tǒng)的可視化界面,進一步研究分析流行病的傳播特點。最后應(yīng)用文中所提出的理論和方法,以武漢市十三個行政區(qū)11年的艾滋病統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)為例,進行數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)處理,簡單空間分析(基于統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)的單一屬性、多屬性專題圖)及不同初始條件下元胞自動機傳播模型的兩次模擬,得到可能的傳播結(jié)果圖,將模擬數(shù)據(jù)與真實數(shù)據(jù)進行對比,進一步證實了這一集成系統(tǒng)在流行病傳播領(lǐng)域中應(yīng)用的可行性。 本文的創(chuàng)新點： (1)擴展了元胞自動機傳播模型。引入實際的地圖數(shù)據(jù)作為元胞空間顯得更加真實,參照具體對象的實際位置信息,例如：居住地址或者所在地的經(jīng)緯度坐標等,計算兩點的實際距離,優(yōu)化地理鄰居的定義,結(jié)合空間對象的空間數(shù)據(jù)以及感染數(shù)據(jù),優(yōu)化傳播模型的轉(zhuǎn)換規(guī)則。 (2)使用MapX的對地理數(shù)據(jù)的分析顯示功能,為元胞自動機模型的圖形化界面顯示提供了新的途徑�；跔顟B(tài)屬性字段值制作專題圖,可以清晰的顯示出具體地圖背景下,元胞自動機傳播模型的模擬結(jié)果圖。
[Abstract]:Cellular automata (CA) is an important tool in the study of complex systems. Complex phenomena can be simulated according to simple local transformation rules and can be applied to epidemic transmission research to provide evidence for epidemic prevention. Geographic Information system (GIS) has a powerful spatial analysis module, which can be used to study the spatial distribution characteristics of epidemic and find out the possible factors that affect the spread of epidemic. The epidemic transmission model based on cellular automata is a simple and efficient dynamic system. Geographic Information system (GIS) can store a large amount of spatial data and has a powerful function of analyzing static spatial data. Combining the dynamic evolvement data of cellular automata propagation model and the data analysis function of GIS, integrating the two and giving play to their respective advantages, an integrated system based on cellular automata is established under the unified map platform. It can analyze and display the data in real time and get a more real simulation effect of epidemic transmission. It provides a new idea for the study of epidemic transmission and has certain practical significance. In this paper, the integration method of embedding MapX components into CA is considered, and the completion of a new system based on epidemic data, which can simulate the propagation process dynamically, is mainly realized by VC programming. The integrated system consists of two parts, one is the internal driving mechanism of the system, and the other is the core part of the system. Cell infection intensity, cellular resistance, neighborhood composition, infection probability and other parameters, combined with the specific spatial data can be continuously improved each parameter value and definition method, optimize the cellular automata propagation model and state with the new rules; The other part is the graphic display part of the system, through the data binding operation of MapX and the method of making thematic map based on single attribute and multi-attribute. The bound initial data and the simulated result data of the cellular automata propagation model are graphically displayed on the map platform, and the visual interface of the system is obtained, and the transmission characteristics of the epidemic are further studied and analyzed. Finally, using the theory and method proposed in this paper, taking the 11 years AIDS statistics in 13 administrative regions of Wuhan as an example, the data preprocessing and simple spatial analysis (based on the single attribute of statistical data) are carried out. Multiple attribute thematic maps) and two simulations of cellular automata propagation model under different initial conditions, the possible propagation result diagrams are obtained, and the simulated data are compared with real data. The feasibility of the application of the integrated system in the field of epidemic transmission is further confirmed. The innovations of this paper are as follows: (1) the cellular automata propagation model is extended. It is more realistic to introduce the actual map data as the cellular space. With reference to the actual location information of the specific object, such as the residence address or the latitude and longitude coordinates of the location, the actual distance between the two points is calculated, and the definition of the geographical neighbor is optimized. Combining spatial data and infection data of spatial objects, the transformation rules of propagation model are optimized. (2) using MapX's function of analyzing and displaying geographic data, it provides a new way to display graphical interface of cellular automata model. Based on the value of state attribute field, we can clearly show the simulation results of cellular automata propagation model under the background of specific map.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：R512.91;P208;TP301.1

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