本文選題：CA_Markov + 時間序列分析��； 參考：《河北師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：CA_Markov模型是CA模型與Markov鏈模型的結(jié)合體，是一種基于柵格運(yùn)算的定量分析模型。在CA_Markov模型的運(yùn)用中涉及到數(shù)據(jù)的三種特征，分別是時間特征、空間特征和屬性特征。在現(xiàn)有研究中，研究者通過人為改變空間特征和屬性特征的方法達(dá)到提高CA_Markov模型模擬精度的目的，沒有充分考慮到時間特征對CA_Markov模型模擬精度的影響。隨著遙感影像等數(shù)據(jù)源的不斷豐富，研究者已具備挑選基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)的條件�，F(xiàn)有研究中CA_Markov模型的模擬數(shù)據(jù)一般只有二到五期，并以其中一期為檢驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行模擬精度評價，研究過程缺少對模擬數(shù)據(jù)的篩選過程。本文通過將時間序列分析模型與CA_Markov模型相結(jié)合，從分析和運(yùn)用數(shù)據(jù)的時間特征角度入手，以蔚縣剪紙藝人分布變化研究為例，分析文化景觀分布空間隨時間的變化規(guī)律，并將結(jié)果運(yùn)用到CA_Markov模型模擬運(yùn)算中。主要結(jié)論如下： 蔚縣剪紙文化發(fā)展具有明顯的時間特征，著名藝人出現(xiàn)、重要?dú)v史政治事件等是蔚縣剪紙歷史發(fā)展階段的時間分割點(diǎn)。蔚縣剪紙文化發(fā)展的每個階段都有各自的發(fā)展特點(diǎn)，從1834年至1930年的96年中，知名藝人數(shù)由1人增加為35人，年增長率為35.42%。有記載的藝人村莊數(shù)由1個增加為11個，年增長率為10.42%，這一階段是蔚縣剪紙藝術(shù)的緩慢發(fā)展時期。從1931年至1966年的35年中，藝人數(shù)由35人增加為78人，，年增長率為119.44%。有記載的藝人村莊數(shù)由11個增加為28個，年增長率為47.22%，這一階段是蔚縣剪紙的快速發(fā)展時期。從1967年至2006年的39年中，其知名藝人數(shù)量藝人數(shù)由78人減少為30人，年增長率為-120.00%。有記載的藝人村莊數(shù)由28個減少為10個，年增長率為-45.00%，這一階段是文革衰落期和文革后產(chǎn)業(yè)化轉(zhuǎn)型期。 蔚縣剪紙文化的傳播在空間分布上形成明顯的剪紙生產(chǎn)區(qū)，區(qū)內(nèi)以中短距離為主，傳播區(qū)域沿壺流河兩岸擴(kuò)散。1889年至1909年屬于蔚縣剪紙緩慢增長期，形成了縣城—南張莊和李家莊雙中心發(fā)展模式，剪紙技術(shù)在兩個生產(chǎn)區(qū)均為短距離傳播。整體上，村莊數(shù)量由1889年的5個增加到1909年的9個，數(shù)量增加80%，年增長率為20%，村莊分布由蔚縣中部向東北和西南短距離擴(kuò)散。1909年至1936年屬于蔚縣剪紙由緩慢增長期向快速增長期發(fā)展的過渡階段。整體上，村莊數(shù)量由1909年的9個增加到1936年的14個，數(shù)量增加55.56%，年增長率為18.52%，村莊分布除由蔚縣中部向東北和西南短距離擴(kuò)散外亦伴有南北方向擴(kuò)散。1943年至1963年屬于蔚縣剪紙快速增長期，這一時期新增了位于蔚縣東北部的冀家嘴生產(chǎn)區(qū)。整體上，村莊數(shù)量由1943年的16個增長為1963年的29個，數(shù)量增加81.25%，增長率為65%，村莊分布由蔚縣中部向東北和西南短距離擴(kuò)散顯著，南北方向亦有明顯擴(kuò)散。 蔚縣剪紙技藝的傳播具有派系特征，每個派系都有其自身的文化傳播特點(diǎn)�？h城—南張莊生產(chǎn)區(qū)是王老賞派系的主要傳播區(qū)，藝人分布相對集中，該區(qū)域傳播距離以短距離為主，中短距離為輔，因此作者將其歸類為中短距離傳播區(qū)。李家莊生產(chǎn)區(qū)是溫新春派系的主要傳播區(qū)之一，溫新春派系注重空間擴(kuò)散傳播，區(qū)內(nèi)以短距離傳播為主兼有中短距離傳播。 本文構(gòu)建TS_CA_Markov（即時間序列分析_元胞自動機(jī)_馬爾科夫鏈）復(fù)合模型，并給出了可行的數(shù)據(jù)篩選和模擬運(yùn)算流程：構(gòu)建蔚縣藝人時空數(shù)據(jù)庫→相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)選取→時間序列分析→制定模擬規(guī)則→模擬運(yùn)算。 本文以蔚縣剪紙藝人研究為例，選取藝人數(shù)量時間序列數(shù)據(jù)作為蔚縣藝人時空分布時間序列數(shù)據(jù)的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，對藝人數(shù)量時間序列數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行時間序列分析，選擇殘差較小數(shù)據(jù)作為實(shí)驗(yàn)組數(shù)據(jù)，殘差較大數(shù)據(jù)作為對比組數(shù)據(jù)。利用專家打分的方法，從藝人故事、從藝時長和所獲榮譽(yù)三個方面對蔚縣剪紙藝人影響力進(jìn)行評價，制定新的模擬規(guī)則，并應(yīng)用于CA_Markov模型的模擬運(yùn)算中。 實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果顯示對比組預(yù)測正確村莊數(shù)為9個左右，正確率達(dá)到64.29%，實(shí)驗(yàn)證明CA_Markov模型適用于對文化景觀模擬。實(shí)驗(yàn)組預(yù)測正確村莊數(shù)為12個左右，正確率達(dá)到85.71%。經(jīng)假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)實(shí)驗(yàn)組模擬精度顯著優(yōu)于對比組，證明通過模擬數(shù)據(jù)的篩選可以顯著提高CA_Markov模型模擬精度。實(shí)驗(yàn)同時證明了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)殘差是模擬數(shù)據(jù)選取的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)。
[Abstract]:The CA_Markov model is the combination of the CA model and the Markov chain model. It is a quantitative analysis model based on the grid operation. In the application of the CA_Markov model, it involves three characteristics of the data, which are time characteristics, spatial characteristics and attribute characteristics. In the present research, the researchers have passed the method of changing the spatial and attribute characteristics by the researchers. In order to improve the accuracy of CA_Markov model, the effect of time characteristics on the simulation precision of CA_Markov model is not fully taken into account. With the continuous enrichment of data sources such as remote sensing images, the researchers have had the conditions to select the basic data. In the present study, the model data of the CA_Markov model are usually only two to five periods, and one of them is one of them. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the test data, the process of screening the simulated data is lacking. By combining the time series analysis model with the CA_Markov model, this paper starts with the analysis and application of the time characteristics of the data, and analyzes the distribution of cultural landscape in Weixian County as an example, and analyzes the spatial distribution of cultural landscape with time. The results are applied to CA_Markov model simulation. The main conclusions are as follows:
The development of Weixian County paper-cut culture has obvious time characteristics. The appearance of famous artists and important historical and political events are the time dividing points in the development stage of Weixian County paper-cut. Each stage of the development of Weixian County paper-cut culture has its own development characteristics. From 1834 to 1930, the number of famous artists increased from 1 to 35, and the annual growth rate was increased. The number of artist villages recorded for 35.42%. has increased from 1 to 11, with an annual growth rate of 10.42%. This stage is a period of slow development in Weixian County paper-cut art. From 1931 to 1966, the number of artists increased from 35 to 78, and the annual growth rate of 119.44%. has increased from 11 to 28, with an annual growth rate of 47.22%. One stage is the rapid development period of paper cutting in Weixian County. From 1967 to 2006, the number of famous artists was reduced from 78 to 30 in the 39 years. The annual growth rate of recorded artists was reduced from 28 to 10, and the annual growth rate was -45.00%. This stage was the period of the decline of the cultural revolution and the industrial transformation period after the cultural revolution.
The spread of Weixian County paper-cut culture forms an obvious paper cutting production area in the space distribution. The area is mainly medium and short distance in the area. The spread region spread along the two sides of the Juliu River from.1889 to 1909, which belongs to the slow growth period of Weixian County paper cutting, forming a dual center development model of the county town south Zhang Zhuang and Li Jia Zhuang. The paper cutting technology is short distance in the two production areas. On the whole, the number of villages increased from 5 in 1889 to 9 in 1909. The number of villages increased by 80%, the annual growth rate was 20%. The distribution of villages from central Weixian County to northeast and southwest from.1909 to 1936 was the transitional stage of Weixian County paper-cut from slow growth to rapid growth period. On the whole, the number of villages was 9 in 1909. The increase to 14 in 1936 has increased by 55.56%, and the annual growth rate is 18.52%. The distribution of villages is also accompanied by north-east and south-west diffusion in the middle of Weixian County, which is also accompanied by north-south diffusion from.1943 to 1963, which belongs to the rapid growth period of Weixian County paper-cut. In this period, the jizjia mouth production area in the eastern North of Weixian County was added. From 16 in 1943 to 29 in 1963, the number increased by 81.25%, the growth rate was 65%. The distribution of villages from central Weixian County to northeast and south-west was significant, and the north and south direction also had obvious diffusion.
The spread of paper cutting techniques in Weixian County has factional features, each of which has its own cultural transmission characteristics. The county town - Nanchang Zhuang production area is the main dissemination area of Wang Lao's faction, the distribution of artists is relatively concentrated, the distance of the region is mainly short distance and the short distance is supplemented, so the author classifies it as a medium and short distance communication area. Li's family. The Zhuang production area is one of the main transmission areas of the new spring faction, and the warm and new spring factions pay attention to the spread of space diffusion, and the short distance transmission is the main part of the region.
In this paper, the composite model of TS_CA_Markov (temporal sequence analysis cellular automaton Markov chain) is constructed, and the feasible data selection and simulation operation flow are given: the construction of the spatio-temporal database of the Weixian County artist, the selection of related data, the time series analysis, the formulation of the simulation rules and the simulation operation.
Taking the study of Weixian County paper-cut artist as an example, this paper selects the time sequence data of the artist quantity as the data of time series data of Weixian County artists' time and space distribution, analyzes the time series of the time series data of the artist, chooses the small residual data as the experimental group data, and the large data of the residual difference as the contrast group data. The method is to evaluate the influence of the Weixian County paper-cut artists from three aspects of the artist's story, the length of the art and the honor. The new simulation rules are formulated and applied to the simulation of the CA_Markov model.
The experimental results show that the number of correct villages in the contrast group is about 9 and the correct rate is 64.29%. The experiment proves that the CA_Markov model is suitable for the simulation of cultural landscape. The number of correct villages in the experimental group is about 12. The accuracy of the experimental group is up to 85.71%. and the simulation accuracy of the experimental group is better than that of the contrast group. The simulation accuracy of the CA_Markov model can be significantly improved. The experimental results also show that the standard residuals are the key indicators for the simulation data selection.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：P208

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