本文選題：暴雨洪澇 + 損失評估��； 參考：《南京信息工程大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著全球氣候變化的不斷加劇,極端災(zāi)害性天氣事件頻發(fā)。在氣象災(zāi)害中,暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害的發(fā)生頻次較高,給人類社會造成了極大的生命財產(chǎn)損失,制約了社會和經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害的損失評估可以為防洪救災(zāi)決策提供重要依據(jù),是防災(zāi)減災(zāi)的一項基礎(chǔ)性工作和有效途徑,具有十分重要的意義。 本文利用GIS技術(shù)實現(xiàn)了人口及各大產(chǎn)業(yè)GDP數(shù)據(jù)的空間化模擬,對濰坊市33次暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害過程分別進(jìn)行評價指數(shù)的估算,構(gòu)建基于暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害綜合評價指數(shù)的直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失率、農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)損失率評估模型。并以濰坊市2007年8月10日暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害過程為例,對一次災(zāi)害過程進(jìn)行損失評估,通過對比災(zāi)情損失的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行誤差分析。研究結(jié)果表明：①模擬獲得100×100米空間分辨率的人口及各產(chǎn)業(yè)GDP空間分布圖,模擬結(jié)果能夠較好的表征濰坊市社會經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的空間分布趨勢,與現(xiàn)實情況基本相符。②基于社會經(jīng)濟(jì)空間化數(shù)據(jù)的濰坊市暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害評價指數(shù)與直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失率存在較好的指數(shù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.872；同時與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)損失率存在良好的線性關(guān)系,相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.842,可以構(gòu)建基于災(zāi)害評價指數(shù)的直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失率模型和農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)損失率模型。③通過損失率評估模型與社會經(jīng)濟(jì)空間化數(shù)據(jù)對濰坊市一次災(zāi)害過程進(jìn)行損失評估,獲得100×100米空間分辨率的直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失、農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)損失空間分布圖,估算的損失結(jié)果與實際災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)基本一致,且誤差均在合理范圍,評估結(jié)果較為可靠。
[Abstract]:With the increasing of global climate change, extreme disastrous weather events occur frequently.In the meteorological disasters, the frequent occurrence of rainstorm flood and waterlogging has caused great loss of life and property to human society and restricted the sustainable development of society and economy.The loss assessment of torrential rain and flood disaster can provide important basis for the decision of flood control and disaster relief. It is a basic work and an effective way for disaster prevention and mitigation. It is of great significance.In this paper, the spatial simulation of GDP data of population and major industries is realized by using GIS technology, and the evaluation index of 33 torrential rain and waterlogging disasters in Weifang is estimated.The evaluation model of direct economic loss rate and agricultural economic loss rate based on the comprehensive evaluation index of torrential rain and flood disaster is established.Taking the torrential rain and flood disaster process of Weifang city on August 10, 2007 as an example, the loss assessment of a disaster process is carried out, and the error analysis is carried out by comparing the statistical data of disaster loss.The results show that the GDP spatial distribution map of population and industries with a spatial resolution of 100 脳 100m is obtained by the 1: 1 simulation. The simulation results can well represent the spatial distribution trend of the social and economic data in Weifang.The evaluation index of rainstorm flood and waterlogging disaster in Weifang city has a good exponential correlation with the direct economic loss rate based on the social and economic spatial data.The correlation coefficient is 0.872.There is a good linear relationship with the loss rate of agricultural economy.The correlation coefficient is 0.842. The direct economic loss rate model based on the disaster evaluation index and the agricultural economic loss rate model .3 can be used to evaluate the losses of a disaster process in Weifang City through the loss rate assessment model and the socio-economic spatial data.The direct economic loss of 100 脳 100 m spatial resolution and the spatial distribution map of agricultural economic loss are obtained. The estimated loss results are basically consistent with the statistical data of the actual disaster situation, and the errors are within a reasonable range, and the evaluation results are more reliable.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京信息工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：P208;P426.616

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 丁志雄;基于RS與GIS的洪澇災(zāi)害損失評估技術(shù)方法研究[D];中國水利水電科學(xué)研究院;2004年

2 孫崢;城市自然災(zāi)害定量評估方法及應(yīng)用[D];中國海洋大學(xué);2008年

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本文編號：1770907