本文選題：干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖　切入點(diǎn)：農(nóng)業(yè)干旱　出處：《合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：區(qū)域干旱已成為全球氣候變化背景下典型的極端自然現(xiàn)象。干旱作為當(dāng)今世界氣候變化背景下的典型的自然現(xiàn)象，正在廣泛的影響世界上相當(dāng)多的國(guó)家。近年來(lái)受到生態(tài)環(huán)境破壞和氣候變化的影響，以及人口急劇增長(zhǎng)、工業(yè)發(fā)展和城市化進(jìn)程加快，致使農(nóng)業(yè)供水量有所減少，農(nóng)業(yè)缺水量進(jìn)一步加大，使得農(nóng)業(yè)干旱出現(xiàn)頻次不斷增長(zhǎng)，旱災(zāi)損失呈現(xiàn)明顯加重的趨勢(shì)。對(duì)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖的編制研究，可有效地加強(qiáng)對(duì)旱災(zāi)管理，促進(jìn)水資源的合理分配，并提高地區(qū)的抗旱減災(zāi)能力�；诖朔N情況，論文從具體農(nóng)作物入手，通過(guò)計(jì)算農(nóng)作物供水和需水兩方面，結(jié)合作物生長(zhǎng)函數(shù)，建立區(qū)域干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖具體編制方法，并在安徽省淮北平原地區(qū)進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究，，主要取得了如下結(jié)果： （1）分析了安徽淮北平原地區(qū)供水指標(biāo)的時(shí)空規(guī)律。通過(guò)對(duì)淮北平原16縣市多年實(shí)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)分析研究：地下水埋深呈現(xiàn)由淮北平原地區(qū)北部向南部遞減的趨勢(shì)，只有局部地區(qū)有些許變異；土壤含水率卻在不同作物的不同生長(zhǎng)期，呈現(xiàn)不同的情況，基本呈現(xiàn)西部向東部遞增的趨勢(shì)，但在部分生長(zhǎng)期，東部邊緣地區(qū)的土壤含水率較低。 （2）優(yōu)選了研究區(qū)的“作物—水”模型。根據(jù)地區(qū)具體情況，主要考慮顯著性、相關(guān)系數(shù)和各個(gè)模型水分敏感系數(shù)變化規(guī)律等對(duì)“作物與水模型”進(jìn)行篩選，最終選定各方面相對(duì)較好，且模型結(jié)構(gòu)形式較好的Jensen模型。 （3）確定了研究區(qū)“作物—水”模型參數(shù)。根據(jù)1996年~2000年的實(shí)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)，應(yīng)用最小二乘法和遺傳算法，率定模型參數(shù)，結(jié)果表明：兩種方法率定的結(jié)果相差較為明顯，且由于其中最小二乘法率定的參數(shù)結(jié)果出現(xiàn)小于零，不符合客觀規(guī)律。經(jīng)過(guò)仔細(xì)的分析比較，認(rèn)定利用遺傳算法率定的結(jié)果符合實(shí)際。 （4）淮北平原地區(qū)干旱災(zāi)害損失的空間分布特征分析。以小麥和玉米兩種淮北地區(qū)的典型作物作為代表，結(jié)果表明：小麥分蘗期損失以渦陽(yáng)縣和濉溪縣為界，西部地區(qū)明顯較東部地區(qū)為高；玉米損失中部較大，其他地區(qū)較小。同種作物在相同生長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)，隨著無(wú)有效降雨天數(shù)增加，各地區(qū)損失逐漸加大且趨勢(shì)完全相同；同種作物不同生長(zhǎng)期或是不同作物不同生長(zhǎng)期，損失趨勢(shì)不相同。
[Abstract]:Regional drought has become a typical extreme natural phenomenon in the context of global climate change. Which is affecting a considerable number of countries in the world... in recent years as a result of ecological destruction and climate change, as well as rapid population growth, accelerated industrial development and urbanization, resulting in a reduction in agricultural water supply, Agricultural water shortage is further increased, which makes the frequency of agricultural drought increase continuously, and the drought losses show a trend of aggravation. The compilation and study of drought disaster risk map can effectively strengthen drought management and promote the rational allocation of water resources. Based on this situation, the paper starts with the concrete crops, through calculating the two aspects of crop water supply and water demand, combining with the crop growth function, establishes the concrete method of compiling the regional drought disaster risk map. An empirical study was carried out in Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province. The main results are as follows:. 1) the temporal and spatial regularity of water supply index in Huaibei Plain area of Anhui Province is analyzed. Based on the experimental data of 16 counties and cities in Huaibei Plain for many years, the groundwater buried depth shows a decreasing trend from the north to the south of Huaibei Plain area. There is only some variation in local area, but the soil moisture content is different in different growing period of different crops, and it is increasing gradually from west to east, but in some growing period, the soil moisture content in the eastern edge area is lower than that in the eastern edge area. (2) the "crop-water" model in the research area was selected. According to the specific situation of the region, the "crop and water model" was screened by considering the significance, the correlation coefficient and the variation law of the water sensitivity coefficient of each model. Finally, the Jensen model which is relatively good in all aspects and has a better structure is selected. According to the experimental data from 1996 to 2000, the model parameters are determined by using the least square method and genetic algorithm. The results show that the difference between the two methods is obvious. Because the parameter result of least square method is smaller than zero, it does not accord with the objective law. After careful analysis and comparison, it is concluded that the result determined by genetic algorithm is in line with the reality. 4) the spatial distribution characteristics of drought disaster losses in Huaibei Plain were analyzed. The typical crops of wheat and maize were taken as the representative. The results showed that the wheat losses at tillering stage were bounded by Guoyang County and Suixi County. In the same growing period, with the increase of the number of days without effective rainfall, the losses of the same crop increased gradually and the trend was the same. Different growth stages of the same crop or different growth period of different crops, the loss trend is different.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：P426.616;P285

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